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Aging Population and % of Healthcare GDP

Here to compare the % of population ages 65 and older and healthcare expenditure as a % of GDP.

United States

1960: 9.1%

2017: 15.4%

The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to more than double from 46 million today to over 98 million by 2060, and the 65-and-older age group’s share of the total population will rise to nearly 24 percent from 15 percent.

– prb.org

Healthcare expenditure rose from 5% of GDP in 1960 to 17.9% in 2017.

China

1960: 3.7%

2013: 9%

2017: 10.6%

By 2050, 330 million Chinese will be over age 65.

The population ages 60+ will reach its highest in 2050:  nearly 35%, at 487 million

预计到2025年，我国60岁及以上老年人口数将达到3亿，占总人口的五分之一；到2033年将突破4亿，占总人口的四分之一左右；而到2050年前后将达到4.87亿，约占总人口的三分之一，老年人口数量和占总人口比例双双达到峰值。

Healthcare expenditure mainly ranges from 4% to 5% from 2000 to 2016, rising constantly in recent years. Considering the rapid growth in its GDP, the healthcare expenditure in China is growing fast.

The percentage of GDP is expected to rise to more than 26% for elders’ caring related costs. [2015-2050年，我国用于老年人养老、医疗、照料等方面的费用占GDP的比例将从7.33％升至26.24％]

Just by comparing China to US, China’s healthcare expenditure percentage is a little lagging behind (~10% 65+ population for 7% healthcare GDP). But the opportunity is large as Chinese demographic is changing rapidly. With the historical “one child policy”, China’s working population will experience a “squeeze”.

17% of Apple AirPod Owners Had Sex While Wearing Them?

An interesting report by TickPick, a ticket marketplace.

Report -> Music’s Influence on Sexual Behaviors

Fun to read..

Also, might be an example for statistics professor – the phrase “correlation does not imply causation” refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a cause-and-effect relationship between two variables solely on the basis of an observed association or correlation between them. (Wikipedia)

Shared Bikes In China (5)

So how many shared bikes are needed?

Beijing is the city in focus.

In April 2017, Beijing (北京市交通委) published a guideline (draft for consultation) to regulate shared bikes. [A usage survey conducted at that time in Beijing]

Beijing had around 700k shared bikes by April 2017, and more than 1.6 million by September 2017. (numbers are for registered bikes, not including non-registered)

The number of shared bikes reached its largest in September 2017 (2.35 million; then new deployments were suspended). Other cities also set the cap (Shanghai 1.5 million, Guangzhou 0.9 million, Nanjing 0.45 million).

The number declined to 1.91 million by August 2018, which was the second hard limit set by City of Beijing. (mobike 0.699, ofo 0.907, other 7 companies 0.3)

It was expected that the cap would continue to decline. From January to May 2019, only 1.2 million of the 1.91 million bikes are used at least once.

Other cities have downsized the number of shared bikes as well: main area in Chengdu 1.8 million -> 0.75 million; Shenzhen 0.89 -> 0.6 million

Beijing has a population of more than 21 million: so on average every shared bike will cover 11 people. (using 1.91 million here)

Shared Bikes In China (4)

After Series E…

By and large, the financing activities paused (as described in part 2) in the bike-sharing space. And the $3 billion valuation for both mobike and ofo was not attractive. Capital markets were developing way ahead of the business.

What is more, the economic model was still in the “testing stage” (to put it nicely).

M&A?

The most obvious way to end the war and to make the industry profitable was a merger between ofo and mobike.

The investors were familiar with the merger between Didi and Kuaidi in 2015, with Tencent-backed Didi’s name surviving.

Similar talks must have been held for several times, especially in the summer of 2017. But before a merger, there would probably be a winner.

Investors from both sides probably have been talked about this privately for long. In June 2017, a discussion between Xiaohu Zhu (GSR Ventures), ofo’s backer from Series A, and Pony Ma (Tencent), mobike’s lead investors for Series D&E, was leaked and posted on the internet.

They were trying to claim ofo and mobike as the No.1 bike-sharing company respectively.

Discussion between GSR and Tencent leaders | Source: tech.sina.com.cn

Meanwhile,  both CEOs were saying a merger was not possible (6/29).

The first public comments from investors on the merger might be in September 2017 when Xiaohu Zhu said a merger is the way to profitability.

ofo CEO vs. Investors

Didi (with veto power) sent a team to ofo in July 2017, including an executive vice president.

In September 2017, ofo launched its mini-program on WeChat (said to be directed by Didi’s team), which made Ant Financial shocked and angry. (Ant Financial’s Alipay and WeChat’s WePay are the duopoly in mobile payment)

It was said that Ant Financial asked ofo to close its mini-program, then Ant Financial would provide additional financing.

Didi’s team lost their access at ofo in November 2017. And ofo’s mini-program became not available anymore.

At the end of 2017, ofo CEO had the last conversation with Xiaohu Zhu (GSR Ventures) about the merger. One month after the last attempt, Xiaohu Zhu sold his position to Ali, together with his veto power.

At the beginning of 2018…

several things became clear:

Then…

Alibaba led a Series F of $866 million for ofo in March 2018.

Meituan acquired mobike for $2.7 billion in April 2018.

Alibaba led a round of nearly $700 million for Hellobike in April 2018.

In fact, Alibaba has bought out Didi’s controlling position from ofo and made Hellobike its main force in bike-sharing.

The duopoly fueled by capital was again overpowered by capital.

Read more on Hellobike (June 2018)