In the first week of 2019, besides the BMS-Celgene merger, the $8 billion acquisition of Loxo Oncology by Eli Lilly is the largest deal announced.
For a premium of 68%, what is special with Loxo?
Its approval of Vitrakvi in Nov 2018 is definitely a remarkable one, marking the second approval by the FDA based on a patient’s tumor’s molecular information (TRK fusion), regardless of the location of the tumor within the body. (pancan)
That has been the trend since targeted therapies were proved to be extraordinarily effective in certain types of cancer, usually characterized by gene mutations. EGFR is probably the most famous one.
Before Keytruda became the first cancer treatment for any solid tumor with a specific genetic feature, it had been approved for the treatment of certain patients with metastatic melanoma, metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, recurrent or metastatic head and neck cancer, refractory classical Hodgkin lymphoma, and urothelial carcinoma.
Loxo’s Vitrakvi, however, received its approval solely based on biomarkers since the beginning. Also, Vitrakvi is the first targeted therapy to be approved this way.
And this big step forward for precision medicine is now acquired by Eli Lilly.
As Elon Musk went to Shanghai for the groundbreaking of Tesla’s first international factory on Jan 6, this video about Gigafactory by Verge is worth watching to refresh the basic understanding of its status and future.
As the first week of 2019 developed with JPM Healthcare Conference in San Francisco and CES in Las Vegas, several alliances across big companies attracted attentions. This might be a year of further cooperations as free growth is not possible and some major developments need different domain knowledge & power.
Intel & Facebook – AI chips (new Nervana Neural Network Processor for Inference) in the second half of this year, according to Reuters, and following the previous collaboration.
Qualcomm & Ford – demonstrating driving situations utilizing C-V2X direct communications, following last year’s partnership announcement.
Celgene & Bristol-Myers Squibb – collaboration-like merger for a stronger presence in oncology & immunology. (news release)
GM & DoorDash – deliver food in self-driving cars. (CNN)
and last month…
Starbucks & UberEats – expanding the partnership to more than 2,000 stores in the United States next year, about a quarter of all of the company’s locations in the country. (TechCrunch)
Compiled within includes the death rate of cancer through 2016. It marked a continuous 25-year of decline in cancer death in US since 1991.
The overall age-adjusted cancer death rate rose during most of the 20th century, peaking in 1991 at 215 cancer deaths per 100,000 people, mainly because of the tobacco epidemic. As of 2016, the rate had dropped to 156 per 100,000 (a decline of 27%) because of reductions in smoking, as well as improvements in early detection and treatment.
– American Cancer Soceity
Female death rate from major cancersMale death rate from major cancers
Lung cancer & smoking
While lung cancer is still the largest category, it is declining with the smoking trend as mentioned above.
2019 Cancer Estimation
The 2019 cancer estimation has also come in.
2019 Estimated new cases and deaths of cancer | Source: cancerstatisticscenter.cancer.org
Incidence rates are estimated to be 494.8 and 419.3 per 100,000 population for male and female; death rates are estimated to be 193.1 and 137.7 per 100,000 population for male and female.
In total, there will be an estimated 1,762,450 new cancer cases and 606,880 cancer deaths.
~$40bn Apollo acquisition – GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS), GE’s aircraft leasing operations
Bidder: Apollo, an offer as much as $40 billion according to Bloomberg & Reuters
GECAS has a fleet of more than 1,900 planes, which it provides to airlines under long-term leases.
1/4/2019
~$1bn KKR investment – Altavair, focusing on the acquisition of new and used commercial aircraft for leasing to passenger airlines and cargo operators
Investor: KKR, $1 billion capital commitment to acquire commercial aircraft in partnership with Altavair + a 50% interest in Altavair; Altavair will be KKR’s partner for aircraft leasing investments going forward
Since its inception in 2003, Altavair has completed over $8 billion in commercial aircraft lease transactions with over 40 airline customers in 27 countries representing over 200 individual Boeing and Airbus aircraft
~$5bn Carlyle acquisition – StandardAero, largest independent maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) providers
Bidder: Carlyle, for more than $5 billion (Reuters) from Veritas
Veritas acquired StandardAero from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Ltd (DAE) for $2.1 billion, including debt, in 2015
Carlyle first acquired StandardAero in 2004. In 2007, DAE simultaneously purchased StandardAero and Landmark Aviation, also an aircraft maintenance services company, from Carlyle in a transaction valued at $1.8 billion, including debt.
~$15bn Apollo acquisition – Arconic (ARNC), aluminum products used around the world by aerospace manufacturers
Bidder 1: Blackstone, Carlyle, Onex and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
(winning) Bidder 2: Apollo, seems winning with a potential acquisition price of $22; also considered is a spin-off of its cladding operation with potential liability from the Grenfell Tower fire of two years ago.
* BV (Buena Vista) was the brand name which was historically often used for divisions and subsidiaries of The Walt Disney Company, whose primary studios, the Walt Disney Studios, are located on Buena Vista Street in Burbank, California
Top 3 are all from Disney, as are #9 & #10, making Disney occupy half of the Top 10 seats of best-selling movies in US.
And according to ComScore, 2018’s movie business hit all-time benchmarks of $11.9 billion in North America and $41.7 billion globally, with Disney taking in nearly a fifth of that figure. (Variety)
Among Disney’s domestic box office of $3.09 billion, its top 3 got ~$1.99 billion (64.32%), top 5 got ~$2.42 billion (78.25%).
Besides, Disney’s movies in Top 10 all have rating of 7.0 or above, averaging at ~7.56 on IMDb (beating the Top 10 average of 7.35)
2018 US Top 3 Movies | Source: IMDb
Overall…
Total US movie sales is barely growing. The figures below are not inflation-adjusted.
But the number of movie productions is increasing, partially due to a lack of funding after financial crisis (bottomed in 2009 with 521 movies that year).
Yearly US Box Office 2008-2018 | Source: boxofficemojo.com
As streaming is disrupting the market, increasing the number of production seemed to be a way to make up for the total revenue?
Then expenses are up and industry margin is low. It is a sure thing that movies are hard to survive alone.
Then no wonder the consolidation kicked in.
Disney bought Marvel for $4 billion in late 2009, bought Lucasfilm for $4 billion in late 2012. Before the financial crisis, Disney also got Pixar in a $7.4 billion in stock.
With the completion of $71 billion acquisition of Fox, Disney will add X-Men and Avatar to its list of movie series.
Warner Bros. will be under a new umbrella – AT&T’s, together with HBO and Turner.
