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Capitalizing on Fear for Anti-Competition

Following up on the previous post of WSJ buying ads on Twitter, I found an underlying trend to explain it and other similar situations – companies are afraid of the accusations that they are preventing or reducing competitions, especially in the tech industry where network effects is extremely strong and “winners take all”.

Just another example here – Amazon Music putting ads on YouTube.

Fundamentally, there are similar laws around the globe focusing on competition, anti-monopoly and antitrust. Twitter doesn’t want to make the case that it is discouraging other medias’ ads; YouTube doesn’t want to make the case that it is discouraging other music apps’ ads.

It has more profound meanings other than ads. Google was fined in Europe for bundling Android in June with its other services, reducing competitions in services such as search. Going way back, Microsoft’s antitrust case in 2001 is probably the most famous one – a settlement was reached for its bundling of Windows and IE (may discourage other web browsers).

This concept can be expanded into many fields. And the fear of being seen as anti-competition is deeply rooted in every tech company.

We should see that Apple should welcome YouTube and Amazon Music so that it won’t be charged as anti-competition in music distribution. Apple Music is born with a market share limit.

Other examples – Apple should keep Fitbit with its Apple Watch, Chrome should keep other search engines with Google Search, Amazon should keep those third-party items with its AmazonBasic lines, etc… Uber should keep Lyft, Intel should keep AMD. Disney should be careful for its contents and distribution channels, so does AT&T…

There are many more examples. And this will last in the foreseeable future, maybe until ordinary antitrust law can’t handle new norms. Or, it may lead to excessive capitalization on the law. Basically, the other side will use antitrust as an very effective weapon. It won’t be a commonly used weapon among small companies due to high legal costs and lack of resources to maintain big market share. But it may be used more often by relatively big companies to expand into new fields with meaningful presence, building into conglomerates in the new era.

Stretched Valuation in Ride-Hailing – Uber’s financials and others

Uber reported some 2018 Q3 quarterly financial numbers on Wednesday.

As similar ride-hailing companies across the globe may go public in the coming 2019-2020, here I compiled some publicly available numbers together.

While Uber’s  revenue growth is slowing down, at least it can target a 2019 full year revenue over $15 billion with 25%+ growth rate (an implied valuation multiple of 8x revenue).

Similar for Lyft – at least it needs an annualized revenue of $3 billion (an implied valuation multiple of 10x revenue), which means ~$750 million per quarter. It seems easier to achieve to me in Lyft’s case.

And Didi… its take rate from GMV is said to be much lower than Uber’s (~23%). Assuming a GMV of ¥120 billion in 2019 and a take rate of 10%, Didi will achieve an annual run rate of ~$1,700 million. Then it will be valued at 50x revenue multiple for a $85 billion valuation…

No comments on specific company. But overall, this space seems to have stretched valuation.

However, some other factors need to be counted in, such as low risk of competition (the market structure is mature or foreseeable I would say), the definite future of transportation-as-a-service (with growing market share in overall transportation), upcoming initiatives (e.g. autonomous car services, autonomous on-demand truck, etc.)

It seems that certain future is coming for sure in many investors’ eyes. Or they are just made to believe in it.

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3 Thoughts on WSJ’s New “Best U.S. Airport Rank 2018”

Wall Street Journey took an new initiatives to rank the 20 largest US airports by a basket of measurements, including 14 factors and 1 survey.

Here is the link to the WSJ post and a screenshot of top 10 candidates.

Source: WSJ

Some interesting metrics used include Yelp ratings for food, Wifi speed, UberX fare to convention center, etc..

The WSJ’s new ranking is also interesting itself.

Thought 1: Useless (for travelers)

No one travels just because there is a convenient/cheap airport.

People travel when they know where they need to be. Then it doesn’t matter if the wifi speed is slow or not. Gonna be there anyway.

Thought 2: Informative for new business/conference

When a new conference is planned, lots of research need to be done. The airport could be one of the important factors. UberX fare between airport and convention center should be used to choose new venue of events/conferences/assemblies.

But not the other way around.

thought 3: educational for airport operators

The rank might be useful for airport operators to learn how to improve their travelers’ overall experience.

It could be used as KPI for its employees or management team.

It could also be seen as a COMPLAINT.

For example, JFK and Newark airport have a reliability score of 16.5 and 9.5 respectively – out of 100 (Phoenix airport is the highest in reliability with 80.5); Newark airport has a value score of 13.5 out of 100 versus Orlando’s 77.

The writer/reporter or the team behind the rank must be very upset/disappointed with New York’s airports – Newark, JFK and LaGuardia have the three lowest overall score… among 20 airports.

#HowToComplain #InAProfessionalManner

 

Moderna’s Long-waited IPO Filed, Raising $500+ Million

Moderna filed S-1 with SEC last Friday and will become the largest biotech IPO in history.

The record amount of raise ($500 million in current version of documents; I will expect more) just surpassed $421 million (HK$3.3bn) IPO by Innovent. In the past years, the typical size of the largest biotech IPO is around $200-300 million.

Since October, we have seen a series of large biotech IPOs that might also contribute to the money pulled from other biotech companies.

Here is the list of ever-increase IPOs in size since October:

– Guardant Health $238 million

– Allogene $324 million

– Innovent (in HK) $421 million

– Moderna (proposed) $500 million

Hawaiian language

US has no official language on the federal level, according to Wikipedia – very interesting. It seems to me that this is one of the many indicators of US being designed to be an overarching organization.

“There is no official language at the U.S. federal level. However, 32 states of the United States, in some cases as part of what has been called the English-only movement, have adopted legislation granting official status to English. Out of 50 states, 30 have established English as the only official language, while Hawaii recognizes both English and Hawaiian as official, and Alaska has made some 20 native languages official, along with English.”

Hawaiian language

  • The Hawaiian alphabet has 13 letters: five vowels (each with a long pronunciation and a short one) and eight consonants, one of which is the glottal stop called ʻokina.

 

  • Frequently used phrase

Aloha = hello, kindness

Maholo = thank you

Kokua = support

Shaka = hand gesture of extended thumb and pinkie

Lei = necklace made of flowers, shells, leaves, or kukui nuts

Mauka = towards the mountain; makai = towards the ocean.

A hui hou = until we meet again

双十一的谜

双十一作为中国电商的标志性发明之一，已经走过十个年头。

每年都不例外的是，在双十一（和其它购物节），电商平台都尽力用数据表现出成交量之大，增长之高，购物速度之疯狂，等等。

除了常见的秀业绩的必要性外，疯狂的数据还可以 1. 加强运用消费者从众心理，让双十一买买买成为再正常不过的事情，“大家都在这时候买嘛” 2. 强调抢购的速度给消费者更少的思考时间，“要第一时间抢，手慢无”

虽说我相信数据上不会假，但数据背后的内容值得细想。

比如 消费积聚在双十一所以九十十一三个月整体消费总额的影响？为了双十一数字好看牺牲的前后消费？消费总额实际没有增加多少？这个集聚效应应该近些年更明显。

比如 依靠平台整合，把更多渠道平台流量计算到阿里/京东等头部平台里，但实际没有额外增量（对于阿里/京东可能没有额外营收或极低；对于去年整体消费可能增长很低甚至为负，但更大一部分消费被计入了头部平台双十一数字）

两个字难讲。

可以肯定的是，天花板越来越近，高增长信手拈来时代已过。

油价十连跌创纪录

这周五的WTI原油价格历史性连跌创 34 年以来最长记录（1984年7月）。借这个机会，来谈谈未来石油的角色。

电动车与新能源汽车

内燃机是一项伟大的发明，由此诞生的汽车经济体量难以估量。很难想象没有内燃机的当代社会能有什么工业生产，交通运输会是怎样。在人类文明史上，内燃机应该有与互联网一样的地位。

从全球原油用途的角度看，当下约有 60% 的需求来自交通运输（陆路，航空、航运等）。其中陆路运输占其中近 80%。大概是每20桶油有9桶用于陆路运输这样的比例。

另一个全球共识，各国家地区都已宣布并付诸实践的，是大力推动新能源汽车的发展，最具代表性的就是Tesla为首的电动汽车。按照各自的时间表，内燃机车的销售还能有10-20年。实际我认为电动汽车时代会来得更快，就像iPhone短短两三年就能让诺基亚和黑莓成为历史。虽然汽车相比于手机周期会更长，但变革来临时，用脚投票的消费者往往超出现有预期。最好的证明 – Tesla Model 3 在今年第三季度已经成为美国最受欢迎销量最好的车型。

眺望一下全球45%的石油需求可能消失的2050年，油价是什么？普通消费者完全不需要有油价的概念，这是一个淡出视野，出现在历史课本里的词汇。

沙特的焦虑

所以说，依靠原油作为主要经济来源的国家都得找出路。沙特首当其冲，也最具代表性。沙特土豪形象深入人心，靠着地下天然资源硬生生造出了一股强大的经济力量。

最能体现沙特的焦虑的，大概就是参与软银的基金。作为 Softbank Vision Fund 最大 LP，沙特在软银帮助下，频频出手在全球找未来行业进行大手笔投资。科技虽然是一个行业，但科技也是一个改变各行业的行业。所以，沙特／软银的投资不能单纯说科技导向，而是diversify + growth + market leader导向，比如 uber（交通），wework（商业地产），compass（住宅地产），guardant health（癌症检测）等等。

贵没有关系，要的是有分量的股权。

Tesla的创始人Elon Musk曾说有可能私有化，依靠沙特的资金支持。这是一笔很合理的买卖。Tesla是沙特地底黄金贬值的始作俑者，买Tesla算是一笔国运hedge。不过想靠私有化Tesla延缓电动汽车时代的到来并不现实，Musk也不会让出他的愿景。有科学的投资，沙特不一定要买Tesla；而且软银也投了其它电动汽车，比如Lucid Motor。

其它
  1. 各国家地区都在为未来30-50年的这个变化做出准备。加拿大选择了大麻业作为一个新增长点也是合情合理。
  2. 电动汽车时代到来只是早晚问题。石油的陆路运输需求会大幅减少，但在其它领域将依旧发挥重要作用。以Elon Musk的SpaceX为首的新一代太空运输，将补上部分石油需求，甚至大大超出现有需求；在可预见的未来，原油依旧是航空业的主力能源。石油在加拿大经济中也有重要作用。
  3. 发展中国家和地区的汽车行业可能还有增量市场。部分可能选择接受发达国家的传统汽车工业转移；部分可能选择传统汽车+新能源同步发展。有远见和能力的国家和地区可以全面地主动地拥抱电动汽车，直接跳过部分内燃机时代的基础建设和社会形态，走向世界最前沿。

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Media In The New Age

It is not necessarily something new/surprising – traditional media are PAYING tech companies to be promoted.

Source: my Twitter on 11/8

I found this really ironic in the sense that originally most media should BE PAID to promote something. The reach to readers is built in the gene of media and defines one of the two pillars of media business model.

Tech companies like Twitter/Toutiao, are not just selling promotions/ads. To me, they are more like real estate developers. They are building towns/offices for people to live/work and renting out the places such as tops of buildings… What’s more, they are doing this everyday and creating places everyday with little physical limits and marginal efforts.

When the town is getting crowded, it becomes Manhattan, where real estates are pricey. Those who were invited as “Official Accounts” now needs to pay more money to be seen. The tech companies can run those auctions which no one questions their eligibility (and why Manhattan is in New York).

从高通今天 Q4 财报回看与苹果的争端

高通财报 FY Q4 收入低于预期，净利高于预期，苹果手机不采用高通芯片的影响在数字上反映得很明显，包括对于下个季度的预期（9-12月）。

回顾一下智能手机和苹果手机的近几年发展，到与高通的关系，有这么一个逻辑：

2014年开始全球智能手机增量市场感受到相当大阻力，以出货量增长放缓乃至不增长为标志。苹果依靠iphone建立起的帝国开始面临一系列问题。这在苹果公司内部或高层应该被经常讨论，也早已市场感受或预料到（比如2011/2012年）。苹果整体利润水平开始有下滑，尤其用2016&2017年比较之前。收入无非是单价*数量。数量增上不去，只能在单价上做文章，iphone的提价路线开始清晰。另一方面，高通芯片和技术授权的成本开始变得更重要。在高增长时期，大家合作共赢，有问题拖到后面再说；增长放缓，则要把分蛋糕的事情再拿出来讨论。如果高通定价为固定数额，那iphone提价是妥妥地提高苹果利润空间；但事实并非如此。高通以手机单机为基础的计价方式让苹果很头大。2015甚至更早的时候，高通苹果应该就有过相关讨论。但作为行业风向标，苹果的谈判结果势必影响高通与其它手机厂商的合同；从这点上说，高通也绝对不想让。大家都盯着这一代智能手机最后的赚头不放手。矛盾爆发在2016，苹果让生产商拒付高通部分费用。也是为2017年iphone X提价到$999做了铺垫。经过两年多准备和研究，2018年起的iphone已经不再采用高通，转用英特尔。

整个事件对与高通来说自然是不好过。苹果手机卖得最贵，贡献的收入自然多。高通不希望失去苹果这个大客户和行业巨头。但同时，高通很明确自己作为供应商的角色。想成为有话语权的供应商，一定要保证下游客户数量和平衡。苹果固然重要，但这一代智能手机的后半场苹果的声音越来越小。虽然苹果依旧可以赚很多钱，依然是最受欢迎，整体体验最好的手机；但在后半场里，印度中国等市场中购买力不出众的消费者撑起了半片天。苹果做不到的，抓不到的消费者，高通可以通过其它OEM捕捉到。另一个角度来说，苹果高通的纠纷让高通提前跳下了有点下沉的巨轮。即使再往前开，高通从苹果身上也赚不到多少。

苹果7-9月财报和未来预期已经说明了很多；不再报告iphone销量数字也成为让投资人不安的点之一。

所以，即便平行空间里高通苹果还是朋友，有一个修改过的合作，高通这季度开始之后几个财报也不会因此亮眼。

而我觉得高通 sexy 的地方还是在于 5G 和 IoT 的时代。5G 概念下包括可下一代手机，AR/VR，车联网，自动驾驶等；IoT 概念下可以算上智能家居等，越来越多设备将连上网络/云端，但不一定需要 5G。

2019将是高通的转折年。可能看不到大涨的基础；好的话应该是为下一个5年的领导地位打下基础；差的话，很多今天挂在嘴边的应用还要过数年才能实现/实用，以及新技术新标准新共识的出现。