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Lowered iPhone Sales Forecast and More

Since Apple announced that it would stop reporting the iPhone unit sales number during Q3 earnings call, things have not become easier.

iPhone Ban in China

The fight between Qualcomm and Apple has led to a sales ban on older iPhone models in China, ordered from a Chinese court (福州市中级人民法院). The case was filed against Apple in China in late 2017, saying the iPhone maker infringed patents on features related to resizing photographs and managing apps on a touch screen.

Apple said it planned a software update that would solve the issue; also, the ban would likely take time to enforce, according to Reuters.

iPhone Ban in German

In German, Apple will be pulling iPhone 7 and iPhone 8 models from its stores there following a win for Qualcomm in the District Court of Munich, which ruled that Apple’s devices were infringing on Qualcomm’s intellectual property related to power savings in smartphones. (The Verge)

Qualcomm said on Thursday (Jan.3) that it posted security bonds of 1.34 billion euros ($1.52 billion) to enforce the German court order.

Apple Outlook Cut Citing Weaker iPhone Demands in China

On Jan 2, a letter from Apple CEO Tim Cook to investors said sales will be about $84 billion in the quarter ended Dec. 29, down from earlier estimates of $89 billion to $93 billion. Apple posted sales of $88.3 billion in the fiscal first quarter a year earlier, so the new forecast would mean Apple is reporting a holiday quarter slowdown for the first time since Cook became CEO in 2011. (Bloomberg)

Apple shares fell 10% to $142.19, the biggest drop in almost six years, the next day.

In the letter, Cook said Apple’s gross margin will be approximately 38%. (also discussed in a previous post about Apple’s pricing strategy)

Chinese Phone Makers Gaining In Zero-growth Market

Although 2018 Q4 numbers are not yet available, Q3 numbers tell the same story. According to IDC Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker on Nov 1.

Company 3Q18 Shipment Volumes (millions) 3Q18 Market Share 3Q17 Shipment Volumes (millions) 3Q17 Market Share 3Q18/3Q17 Change
Samsung 72.2 20.3% 83.3 22.1% -13.4%
Huawei 52.0 14.6% 39.1 10.4% 32.9%
Apple 46.9 13.2% 46.7 12.4% 0.5%
Xiaomi 34.3 9.7% 28.3 7.5% 21.2%
OPPO 29.9 8.4% 30.6 8.1% -2.1%
Others 119.9 33.8% 149.8 39.6% -19.9%
Total 355.2 100.0% 377.8 100.0% -6.0%

And in Gartner’s December report…

Vendor 3Q18 Units (thousands) 3Q18 Market Share (%) 3Q17 Units (thousands) 3Q17 Market Share (%)
Samsung 73,360.1 18.9 85,605.3 22.3
Huawei 52,218.4 13.4 36,501.8 9.5
Apple 45,746.6 11.8 45,441.9 11.8
Xiaomi 33,219.7 8.5 26,853.2 7.0
OPPO 30,563.4 7.9 29,449.2 7.7
Others 153,960.0 39.6 159,742.0 41.6
Total 389,068.2 100.0 383,593.4 100.0

What is good for Apple…

From Cook’s letter, we know Apple’s wearables sales grew by almost 50% year-over-year, as Apple Watch and AirPods were wildly popular among holiday shoppers.

Only 5% of Earth Land Unmodified by Human

How much of the terrestrial lands have been modified by human beings?

A recent study published on Global Change Biology revealed a far lower estimate of 5% than the previous 19%.

(a) Cumulative human modification (HMc) across global terrestrial lands | Source: Global Change Biology

Thirteen human factors in 6 categories are considered in calculation.

  • human settlement (population density and built‐up areas)
  • agriculture (cropland and livestock)
  • transportation (major roads, minor roads, two tracks, and railroads)
  • mining
  • energy production (oil wells and wind turbines)
  • electrical infrastructure (powerlines and nighttime lights)

Meanwhile, nearly 50% of the lands are considered with low human modification.

So there is a contrast of how little of the land (5%) we haven’t touched and how much of the land we haven barely explored (44%)

 

Loxo and Pan-Cancer Treatments

In the first week of 2019, besides the BMS-Celgene merger, the $8 billion acquisition of Loxo Oncology by Eli Lilly is the largest deal announced.

For a premium of 68%, what is special with Loxo?

Its approval of Vitrakvi in Nov 2018 is definitely a remarkable one, marking the second approval by the FDA based on a patient’s tumor’s molecular information (TRK fusion), regardless of the location of the tumor within the body. (pancan)

That has been the trend since targeted therapies were proved to be extraordinarily effective in certain types of cancer, usually characterized by gene mutations. EGFR is probably the most famous one.

But FDA approvals were still linked to the tumor locations until May 2017 when Merck’s Keytruda was approved upon a biomarker – microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) or mismatch repair deficient (dMMR).

Before Keytruda became the first cancer treatment for any solid tumor with a specific genetic feature, it had been approved for the treatment of certain patients with metastatic melanoma, metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, recurrent or metastatic head and neck cancer, refractory classical Hodgkin lymphoma, and urothelial carcinoma.

Loxo’s Vitrakvi, however, received its approval solely based on biomarkers since the beginning. Also, Vitrakvi is the first targeted therapy to be approved this way.

And this big step forward for precision medicine is now acquired by Eli Lilly.

Source: Bloomberg

「Video of the Week」Tesla Gigafactory

As Elon Musk went to Shanghai for the groundbreaking of Tesla’s first international factory on Jan 6, this video about Gigafactory by Verge is worth watching to refresh the basic understanding of its status and future.

“This is Elon Musk’s key to Tesla’s future”

2019 – A Year of Alliance?

As the first week of 2019 developed with JPM Healthcare Conference in San Francisco and CES in Las Vegas, several alliances across big companies attracted attentions. This might be a year of further cooperations as free growth is not possible and some major developments need different domain knowledge & power.

Intel & Facebook – AI chips (new Nervana Neural Network Processor for Inference) in the second half of this year, according to Reuters, and following the previous collaboration.

Qualcomm & Ford – demonstrating driving situations utilizing C-V2X direct communications, following last year’s partnership announcement.

Celgene & Bristol-Myers Squibb – collaboration-like merger for a stronger presence in oncology & immunology. (news release)

GM & DoorDash – deliver food in self-driving cars. (CNN)

and last month…

Starbucks & UberEats – expanding the partnership to more than 2,000 stores in the United States next year, about a quarter of all of the company’s locations in the country. (TechCrunch)

2019 US Cancer Update by American Cancer Society

The annual report from American Cancer Society is up today, available 1) in the article format “Cancer Statistics, 2019” (published in the American Cancer Society’s journal CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians), 2) in a companion report, Cancer Facts and Figures 2019, and 3) on the interactive website, the Cancer Statistics Center.

Steady Decline In Cancer Death in US

Compiled within includes the death rate of cancer through 2016. It marked a continuous 25-year of decline in cancer death in US since 1991.

The overall age-adjusted cancer death rate rose during most of the 20th century, peaking in 1991 at 215 cancer deaths per 100,000 people, mainly because of the tobacco epidemic. As of 2016, the rate had dropped to 156 per 100,000 (a decline of 27%) because of reductions in smoking, as well as improvements in early detection and treatment.

– American Cancer Soceity

Female death rate from major cancers
Male death rate from major cancers
Lung cancer & smoking

While lung cancer is still the largest category, it is declining with the smoking trend as mentioned above.

2019 Cancer Estimation

The 2019 cancer estimation has also come in.

2019 Estimated new cases and deaths of cancer | Source: cancerstatisticscenter.cancer.org

Incidence rates are estimated to be 494.8 and 419.3 per 100,000 population for male and female; death rates are estimated to be 193.1 and 137.7 per 100,000 population for male and female.

In total, there will be an estimated 1,762,450 new cancer cases and 606,880 cancer deaths.

The Race in Aerospace – Positions of Private Equity Firms

~$40bn Apollo acquisition – GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS), GE’s aircraft leasing operations

  • Bidder: Apollo, an offer as much as $40 billion according to Bloomberg & Reuters
  • GECAS has a fleet of more than 1,900 planes, which it provides to airlines under long-term leases.
  • 1/4/2019

~$1bn KKR investment – Altavair, focusing on the acquisition of new and used commercial aircraft for leasing to passenger airlines and cargo operators

  • Investor: KKR, $1 billion capital commitment to acquire commercial aircraft in partnership with Altavair + a 50% interest in Altavair; Altavair will be KKR’s partner for aircraft leasing investments going forward
  • Since its inception in 2003, Altavair has completed over $8 billion in commercial aircraft lease transactions with over 40 airline customers in 27 countries representing over 200 individual Boeing and Airbus aircraft
  • 1/3/2019, KKR Commits to Invest $1 Billion with Altavair

~$5bn Carlyle acquisition – StandardAero, largest independent maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) providers

  • Bidder: Carlyle, for more than $5 billion (Reuters) from Veritas
  • Veritas acquired StandardAero from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Ltd (DAE) for $2.1 billion, including debt, in 2015
  • Carlyle first acquired StandardAero in 2004. In 2007, DAE simultaneously purchased StandardAero and Landmark Aviation, also an aircraft maintenance services company, from Carlyle in a transaction valued at $1.8 billion, including debt.
  • 12/18/2018, The Carlyle Group to Acquire Leading Aircraft Engine MRO Provider StandardAero from Veritas Capital

~$15bn Apollo acquisition – Arconic (ARNC), aluminum products used around the world by aerospace manufacturers

  • Bidder 1: Blackstone, Carlyle, Onex and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
  • (winning) Bidder 2: Apollo, seems winning with a potential acquisition price of $22; also considered is a spin-off of its cladding operation with potential liability from the Grenfell Tower fire of two years ago.
  • 10/8/2018, early report on bidders
Arconic in 2018 | Source: Bloomberg