The worst credit is issued at the best of times

I am recently reading Howard Marks’ The Most Important Thing and come across the section describing the credit cycle.

Why the worst credit is issued at the best of times?

Because bad news is scarce and when financial institutions compete for market share by lowering lending standards or required returns.

Typically when there is more capital available to companies or individuals, you have lower return on capital when they invest.

Then when something bad happens, the cost of capital can shoot up and become higher than the return of capital generated by the previous projects.

These projects can’t sustain in the new environment and thus are destroying capital.

———

This is also true in valuation and VC returns.

The worst VC deals are made during the best of times!

Remember the 2020-21 era? Not hard to destroy some capital if you invest in a SaaS company with 40x P/S during that time.

Read more on SaaS P/S here – The previous 40x P/S sector was SaaS

The previous 40x P/S sector was SaaS

Cloud and SaaS received premium valuation from 2020 to 2021.

The outperformance started in 2016 and lasted 5-6 years. Watch that outperformance here: https://cloudindex.bvp.com/

Back then, “rule of 40” is the king of valuation metrics, which means “um of revenue growth and profit margin should equal 40%+”. The higher the better of course.

While market fluctuates, you can find the P/S or revenue multiple in the past.

Here, you see that in 2016 companies at rule of 40 receives ~6-7x current year revenue multiple.

Here, you see that in 2020 companies at rule of 40 receives 17x LTM revenue, or 12.8x forward revenue.

During this 2020-21 period, it’s normal to see 30-40x P/S for hot SaaS companies. I remembered Shopify was 40x P/S.

Looks at these charts from here – the evidence of 30-40x P/S glory days.

We all know what happened next.

 

 

That multiple fell back to ~6x for the regression line in 2022, with Fed raising interest rates. See here for the chart.

 

The multiple has stabilized afterwards, from 2022 till now.

Currently, the valuation (forward revenue multiple) is ~4-5x for 2nd and 3rd quantile companies followed by BVP, including the names like Salesforce, Hubspot, Workday, Nutanix, etc.

BVP has introduced the new the Rule of X to give growth more credit btw.

I think some bubble is brewing now, with AI model companies or even chip companies.

However, investors keeps dancing, expecting that Trump will appoint new Fed Chair this year and the new chair won’t raise rates. Trump wants lower rates, not higher.

Maybe we should see another around of crazy valuation first.

And if SaaS outperformed 5-6 years (2016-2021), maybe AI-related stuff should outperform till 2027/28.

VPN and 另纸签

Interestingly, the two things give me similar feeling.

VPN is needed when people in HK use services like ChatGPT.

另纸签 is needed when Chinese people are entering Vietnam.

The usage of VPN in HK for ChatGPT started when US doesn’t want to recognize Hong Kong as special and treat it more like mainland China.

The usage of 另纸签 started when Vietnam doesn’t want to recognize the map on a Chinese passport.

Sometimes you feel the moves are a bit “childish”, but also “smart” in managing tensions.

 

Nvidia to become new android+qualcom

In the smartphone era, Google’s Android and Qualcom chips is a powerful solution for many hardware makers.

Nvidia looks to resemble that status alone in self-driving, with this announcement. The Alpamayo + Thor combo provide self-driving software + chip for cars.

More than that, it looks that Nvidia might also do that in robots.

Obviously, Tesla would be the Apple of this era.

Btw, Nvidia’s evaluation data set includes lidar data  https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/PhysicalAI-Autonomous-Vehicles-NuRec

This dataset has a total of 1727 hours of driving recorded from planned data-collection drives in 25 countries and 2500+ cities. The data captures diverse traffic, weather conditions, obstacles, and pedestrians in the environment. It consists of 310,895 clips that are each 20 seconds long. The sensor data includes multi-camera and LiDAR coverage for all clips, and radar coverage for 163,850 clips.

 

Popmart, holidays and 犒赏经济

Recently, 犒赏经济 has become a hot topic in China. The related articles try to show resilience in consumption and suggest a way to lift consumption.

While I agree with the necessity of this concept, as consumption in China needs to upgrade to “quality consumption” as some may say, I think 犒赏经济 is also trying to avoid some other key issues.

1/ key examples of 犒赏经济 are also lipstick effect.

Usually these articles argue that the rise in blind box toy sale like Popmart is a form of 犒赏经济.

However, if you think about it, Popmart toy is also like high-end brand lipsticks – people are replacing large item luxury purchases (handbags etc.) with smaller items ($20).

The desire to buy luxury products still exist during a bad economy, but people choose to buy stuff that have less impact on their financials.

One common use case of Popmart toy is to attach it to luxury handbags. Adding the “attachment” makes people feel that the handbag is “new” , thus somehow replacing the need to buy a new one.

Other examples of 犒赏经济 can also be lipstick effect.

Buying a nice dessert on the way back home? That’s a replacement for a much more expensive dinner out.

2/ 犒赏经济 tolerates other negative effects on overall consumption like stress or off-times.

Some part of the 犒赏经济 is not to celebrate in my opinion.

The mental stress is usually mentioned as a cause of rise in 犒赏经济, but is that a good thing? Are economists going to argue that in order to drive 犒赏经济, more people need to feel the stress?

Plus, these articles avoided discussions of long working hours and short holidays.

Long working hours is limiting dinner consumption and other 夜间经济.

In most companies in China, young people only get 5 days of annual leave per years. In additional, many companies will ask why you take a leave, and there is no such thing as getting paid for unused leaves. I bet many European people would say that like hundreds of years ago.

In 1936, France introduced law for 2 weeks of paid leave for all workers. This is on top of 9 days of national holiday at that time. The 2 weeks was further raised to 3 weeks in 1956, to 4 weeks in 1969, and to 5 weeks in 1982.

Wonder why concert is more popular than traveling? Because concert is usually in the city or a weekend trip that doesn’t involve taking a leave.

Let me just stop here.

Overall there are huge potentials in consumption in China I believe, and the quality consumption is the way to go. But some limiting factors need to be addressed first.

Real interest rate comparison

China, 2020-2025

  • Real interest rate is mostly in 1-2% post-2020, using 7-day repo repurchase rate.
  • Although overnight rate could be 0.3% lower, real interest rate is still in positive territory.
  • in mid-2022, real interest rate is below 0 due to short-term CPI strength when shanghai is out of lockdown.

US, post dot-com bubble

Real interest rate is below 0%, like -1%.

Fed funds rate

 

December 2001 1.75% 11 rate cuts in a single year to fight the recession.
November 2002 1.25% Further easing as the recovery remained “jobless.”
June 2003 1.00% The Bottom. The lowest rate in 45 years at that time.

CPI

 

2001
177.1
2.8%
2002
179.9
1.6%
2003
184.0
2.3%

 

US, post GFC

Real interest rate is below 0%, frequently below -1%, near -4% in Sep 2011.

Fed fund rate: 0% until Dec 2015, plus QE to keep long term rates low

CPI

 

2009
214.5
-0.4%
2010
218.1
1.6%
2011
224.9
3.2%
2012
229.6
2.1%
 2013
233.0
1.5%
 2014
236.7
1.6%
 2015
237.0
0.1%

 

Potential 30% decline in new long-term debt

According to PBOC, till Nov 2025, China residents’ long-term debt only increased 1.27 trillion rmb, compared with 1.95 trillion rmb last year.

If Dec 2025 can add 0.3 trillion like last year, it would be ~1.57 trillion rmb, thus down 30% yoy for 2025 vs 2.25 trillion in 2024.

We have already seen 3-year of consecutive decline new this number.

2021: 6.0759 trillion

2022: 3.0566 trillion (-50% yoy)

2023: 2.5507 trillion (-17% yoy)

2024: 2.25 trillion (-12% yoy)

2025: 1.57 trillion (for illustration, -30%)

This is the new additional long-term debt that households are taking, mostly related to mortgages.

This could be negative number.

Accelerated yoy decline in new residential sales in China

Previously, since 2024 policy shift (“Sep 24”), China’s housing market has stabilized for 6 month (Oct 2024 to Mar 2025).

However, since Apr 2025, that trend has reversed. Monthly new residential sales saw accelerated decline again.

 

Oct 2025 and Nov 2025 implied monthly new residential sales is down 26% and 28% yoy, vs -1% in the first quarter of 2025.

Several obvious reasons

  • deteriorating macro / increasing uncertainty after US tariff
  • no meaningful policy supply
  • high base in 4q24

How do interest rates move during wars?

Interest rate should go up.

Several factors are moving the interest rates up during wars.

  • Governments are borrowing more to fund the war; thus rates are higher
  • Production is impacted thus inflation should be higher
  • Currency can be weaker, as people are moving money to safer places, plus the fear of gov printing money. The higher interest rate is needed to compensate for the FX risk

During WWI, UK interest rose.

Consol (Long-Term Bond) Yields in the United Kingdom moved up as the war progressed:

1913: 3.4275%

1914: 3.4823%

1915: 3.8580%

1916: 4.3165%

1917: 4.5823%

1918: 4.4287%

1919: 4.6372%

However, other factors also play an role. For example, as governments want to keep borrowing costs low, interest rates can be depressed.

During WWII, US effectively ran yield-curve control: the Fed supported Treasury prices to keep yields from rising too much. Fed “assisted the Treasury in this effort by implementing a form of yield curve targeting, capping interest rates at several points along the yield curve: from 3/8 percent on T-bills to 2½ percent on long-term bonds.”