Following the previous near flattish China’s real estate price in February 2025, China is seeing weakening in Apr and May, despite the yoy comparison still looks okay.
Key cities’ MoM existing home price index % change was -0.3% and -0.7% in Apr and May 2025.
The yoy comparison shows decline of less than 2% – existing home price index is only down 1.8% and down 1.3% in Apr and May 2025.
In China, owners’ imputed rent at market rate was only adopted as of 2023 GDP figure – 2023 GDP upward, among which CNY 1.343 trillion (~1% of GDP) is due to market rent approach vs cost approach.
Some public/government sponsored consumption are not counted as household consumption, such as public schools, healthcare etc. Therefore the split will make household % lower, but this won’t change total GDP figure. These are both valued on cost basis in China and EU.
US existing home inventory is going up to a higher level and month to clear is expected to reach 4.4 month, a slightly higher number.
US new home price is down yoy, but volume was strong. Some explains that “less expensive homes are driving sales activity“.
Homebuilder’s sentiment is running at low levels, while builders reported the average price reduction unchanged from the previous month.
Reading Buffet’s early investments in Union Street Railway in the 1950s.
Company’s business is not going well, and its stock is cheap – $30–$35 per share despite roughly $60 per share in cash and bonds.
Simply by distributing dividends, the company can give $50 per share to shareholders.
While the company being cheap is important, the management’s willingness to give shareholder return is even more crucial.
A distant $50 is different from a near-term $50; not to mention other ways to destroy equity value.
Oh btw, Union Street Railway also needed local regulator’s approval to distribute it seems – so ultimately it’s also up to the change of thoughts from regulators.
In the first quarter of 2025, China’s renewable generated more 816 bn kWh, 816 gwh, about similar the consumption of households and the service sector combined.
Detective Conan IP generated less than 1500mn rmb revenue in a year, with film being the largest contribution (~50%).
PopMart’s Labubu generated over 3000mn rmb revenue last year, while most people don’t know Labubu’s stories, its origin, its value, etc.
UPS and FedEx reported revenue per piece/package is ~$13-$14 (1q25).
SF Express, the most premium express in China, reported ASP of 15.5 rmb in 2024 and ASP of 14.6 rmb in 1q25.
Other express delivery companies in China reported ASP of 2.3 rmb (YTO) and 2.05 rmb (STO and Yunda) in 2024.
Meanwhile, ZTO+YTO+STO+Yuanda+SF -> 330k package per day!
FedEx +UPS is ~40k package per day.
I don’t think so.
In 2024, US trade deficit with China is slightly lower than $300bn.
To compare, in 2011, US trade deficit with China is at the same level.
Back in 2011, US GDP is $15.6 trillion and that grows to $29 trillion in 2024.
We know the math – the trade deficit with China as % of US GDP is almost halved from 2011 to 2024.
Source: US-China trade deficits over the years.
I was going to order coffee downstairs.
Met a couple, Cindy and Fab, when they were trying to order. They are in their 60s and on their 4-month vacation. They used to work in Indiana and now live in Florida.
I just realized how lovely these random conversations can be. I feel I used to have a lot of these (I might have exaggerated here) back in the states, but rarely so in China.
Maybe it’s about me.
Maybe I feel the expected outcome from random conversations is less interesting here in China, so I wasn’t intrigued to welcome one.
Maybe my attitude to life has changed a bit – I became less exploratory and want more certainty. This could be due to the distaste of negative randomness in stock market – I was exposed to a lot of it in work and in personal investing.
However, those are temporary, if anything. I felt the impulse again and that’s nothing different from what I could feel years back.