with Yahoo Finance and Google Sheet…
And fast food companies can be such profitable
Tag: Business
Apple’s Service Bundle
Apple may know well before the investors that their flagship iPhone would face a slowdown and it needs new growth strategies.
[Read more on iPhone’s sluggish sales and challenges & its recent pricing strategy]
Apple has talked about its services for a while and it’s not limited to Apple Care or Genius Bar (“Physical Services”), but more about Distribution Services.
System/Platform Level
I guess the most obvious change happened in 2016 when a new revenue sharing scheme was introduced by Apple – from a 30% cut to a 15%-cut-after-first-year. And other features were included such as “subscription group“… marching into subscription-based services revenue model.
Apple News
Available in Australia, UK, and US, it’s currently a curated display place for publisher subscriptions. It could be developed into a Toutiao-like app for personalization and could be complimentary with Apple’s Stock app.
And it won’t be surprised to me that in the future you can trade stocks through this app – probably by upgrading to a premium version with other complementary benefits (like news/reports).
Apple Music
Anyway, music is where Apple found its turnaround with iTunes and iPod. Plus, it is the most explored region with established companies and new entrants.
Spotify Premium – $9.99 / month
YouTube Music – $9.99/month
Pandora Plus – $4.99/month & Premium – $9.99/month
Apple TV & Streaming Channel
Apple has long reported to be interested in contents distribution especially video. And rumors about an acquisition of Netflix didn’t come from nowhere.
A New York Times report back in March 2018.
A CNBC report in October 2018 – Apple plans to give away original content for free to device owners as part of new digital TV strategy.
Apple has cash and ability for original contents (and can acquire/build a studio). Apple has educated customer base (thanks for Netflix). Apple has introduced Clip for iOS short videos (think about Snapchat and Douyin, plus its ability in music and messaging). Apple has AppleTV and AirPlay.
There are just too many things to do in this space, broadly speaking.
And the competition is fierce. Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Youtube TV, Facebook/Instagram TV, Disney/Hulu, AT&T/HBO…
And the AR/VR future…
Let’s see.
Gaming
It might be something new. But Apple could introduce a monthly plan to play most iOS games freely (with some exceptions maybe). Just like what Tencent did with WeChat Read – subscriptions that can read all books on its app.
Let’s see what Steam will do… Steam has subscription-based products, although not a bundle.
A master bundle plan for Apple users in the future? Possible.
India E-commerce Chaos and Complexity
The New E-commerce Regulation in India – Be a participant or an organizer, not both
Starting from February 1, 2019, Amazon India and Flipkart by Walmart, among others, are not allowed to hold inventory and sell to customers.
The rules now bar any entity in which an e-commerce firm or its group companies have a stake from selling on their online platform. This is a problem for Amazon, which had been picking up stakes in offline Indian retailers to boost its market share. (Reuters)
The Regulation In Four Dimensions
eCommerce in India can be broadly categorized as:
- domestic and cross-border
- B2B and B2C
- marketplace and inventory based
- single brand and multi brand
B2B: 100 percent FDI is allowed in companies engaged in B2B eCommerce, e.g. Walmart and Alibaba can operate a cash & carry (B2B) business.
B2C Marketplace: 100 percent FDI is allowed in the online retail of multi-brand goods and services B2C under the marketplace model, e.g. Amazon, Flipkart, Snapdeal. Any eCommerce entity providing a marketplace cannot exercise ownership over the inventory and is not permitted to sell more than 25 percent of total sales through its marketplace from one vendor to their group companies. There are also conditions restricting to offer discounts by marketplace.
B2C Inventory-Based: FDI is not allowed in inventory-based model of eCommerce.
Single Brand: A single brand retail trading entity operating through brick and mortar stores is permitted to undertake retail trading through eCommerce subject to local sourcing requirements. Food retail: 100 percent FDI is allowed for trading (including eCommerce) of food products manufactured or procured in India.
Multi-Brand Retail: No FDI is allowed in companies which engage in multi-brand retail trading by means of eCommerce.
Source: https://www.export.gov/article?id=India-e-Commerce
Other Conditions
- E-commerce marketplace may provide support services to sellers in respect of warehousing, logistics, order fulfillment, call centre, payment collection and other services.
- An e-commerce entity will not permit more than 25% of the sales value on financial year basis affected through its marketplace from one vendor or their group companies.
- In marketplace model, any warrantee/ guarantee of goods and services sold will be responsibility of the seller.
- E-commerce entities providing marketplace will not directly or indirectly influence the sale price of goods or services and shall maintain level playing field.
- The government has also prohibited e-commerce firms from pushing merchants to sell any product exclusively on its platform. The sellers can, however, choose to have a preferred online partner.
Source: https://dipp.gov.in/sites/default/files/CFPC_2017_FINAL_RELEASED_28.8.17.pdf
Some Context
Indian marketplace is dominated with many small shops and business. If foreign investment in multi-brand retail is to be permitted, then the business of these small shop owners will be in danger. Consumers will be spoilt with choices and due to high competitions, prices will go down, thus these multi-brand retail establishment will be able attract consumers at a large scale. However, in case of single-brand retail shops, they usually bring premium or luxury goods in the market so as such they are not in direct conflict with Indian small business. (blog.ipleaders.in)
「Podcast of the Week」Restaurant and Food – Not Easy Business
Two Bloomberg interviews…
Tencent vs. Toutiao and Tencent’s Core Asset
Just two days ago, one of the most popular growing app China “Douyin/Tiktok” (owned by ByteDance, formerly known as Toutiao) was founded to be blocked to login with WeChat (owned by Tencent) for new users.
The two old king in social apps is fighting the rising new star.
In March 2018, WeChat global MAUs surpassed 1 billion.
Douyin said its global MAUs is over 500 million in July 2018.
Tencent’s WeChat has been on the market way earlier (since 2011). Douyin was launched in Sep 2016 but its growth has been so terrifying that Tencent has adopted several defensive actions, including blocking sharing Douyin links in WeChat.
Tencent has also backed Qutoutiao to combat with Jinri Toutiao (Toutiao’s flagship and first product) and Weishi for Douyin.
Now the war has escalated. Toutiao launched a new social app “Duoshan” to challenge the King and Tencent blocked WeChat login for Douyin.
Things are just getting started. But it reminded me of the 3Q war in 2010 between Tencent and Qihu360. Tencent didn’t have WeChat yet and relied on its QQ platform (the previous King).
During the war, one particular action by Qihu was seen by Pony Ma (Tencent founder and CEO) as the most threatening and he forced users to log off QQ if they don’t uninstall Qihu.
The key in that situation and in Ma’s mind is the copy of social map. The full connections between almost every relevent Chinese internet user.
This is probably what Ma values most and is one of Tencent’s core secrets.
That is what Toutiao is trying to obtain with Duoshan and Douyin today ina different way than Qihu) – the social map of almost every relevant Chinese (young) mobile users. And those would be the future Chinese internet revenue sources/assets/reserves.
The war will continue to unfold and Toutiao is much more powerful than Qihu. Toutiao is one of the most valued private companies in the world, but it is also taking on Baidu for news feeds and ads – multi-battleground just like Uber.
Airline Operation Results 2017 & 2018 (2)
Following up on yesterday’s post – added Delta and United to the little python program.
Data Download
Airline Operation Results 2017 & 2018
Wrote a little python… to extract the monthly operation results from airlines, and calculated load factor change, RPM change and ASM change.
- RPM = Revenue passenger miles, and its percentage change year-over-year
- ASM = Available seat miles, its percentage change year-over-year
- Load factor = RPM / ASM, its change year-over-year
- RPM_g = RPM(t) / RPM (t-12) – 1
- ASM_g = ASM(t) / ASM (t-12) – 1
I did Alaska and Southwest tonight and will add more…
Data Download:
US Government Shutdown – an Incomplete List of Direct Effects in Business
On Jan 10, Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented at the Economic Club about government shutdown…
In the short term, if government shutdowns don’t last very long, they have typically not left much of a mark on the economy… A longer shutdown is something we haven’t had. If we have an extended shutdown, and I do think that that would show up in the data pretty clearly,… we would have a less clear picture into the economy if it were to go on much longer.
Here is an incomplete list of effects in business…
- SEC & IPO – Could the Government Shutdown Affect IPOs? by Knowledge@Wharton (delayed much-anticipated tech offerings such as Uber and Lyft… but market conditions have been “very difficult” for IPOs anyway…)
- FDA & Drug Approvals – Partial Government Shutdown’s Impact On FDA Drug Approvals (the FDA has suspended reviews of existing IND and BLA applications not covered by user fees, and is not reviewing applications for new drugs and biologics submitted during the shutdown period, except for emergency INDs and BLAs. The FDA is also not reviewing medical device applications submitted during the lapse period; and Gottlieb’s keynote address Tuesday was delivered via video conference from Washington)
- FAA & TSA & Airports – Travelers Feel Effects of Partial U.S. Government Shutdown as Airports Struggle
- SBA & Small Business Loans – Over 300 small-business loans a day aren’t happening because of the shutdown
- SEC & Fin-tech companies – Fintechs Start To Feel The Pain From Government Shutdown (Online lenders & alternative asset underwriters couldn’t get SEC permission to repackage loans and sell them or via an IPO offering of the luxury vehicles e.g. Rally Rd)
- TBB & Beer Labels and Permits –How The Government Shutdown Impacts Breweries (During the shutdown, the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau will not approve labels or process permits)
Lowered iPhone Sales Forecast and More
Since Apple announced that it would stop reporting the iPhone unit sales number during Q3 earnings call, things have not become easier.
iPhone Ban in China
The fight between Qualcomm and Apple has led to a sales ban on older iPhone models in China, ordered from a Chinese court (福州市中级人民法院). The case was filed against Apple in China in late 2017, saying the iPhone maker infringed patents on features related to resizing photographs and managing apps on a touch screen.
Apple said it planned a software update that would solve the issue; also, the ban would likely take time to enforce, according to Reuters.
iPhone Ban in German
In German, Apple will be pulling iPhone 7 and iPhone 8 models from its stores there following a win for Qualcomm in the District Court of Munich, which ruled that Apple’s devices were infringing on Qualcomm’s intellectual property related to power savings in smartphones. (The Verge)
Qualcomm said on Thursday (Jan.3) that it posted security bonds of 1.34 billion euros ($1.52 billion) to enforce the German court order.
Apple Outlook Cut Citing Weaker iPhone Demands in China
On Jan 2, a letter from Apple CEO Tim Cook to investors said sales will be about $84 billion in the quarter ended Dec. 29, down from earlier estimates of $89 billion to $93 billion. Apple posted sales of $88.3 billion in the fiscal first quarter a year earlier, so the new forecast would mean Apple is reporting a holiday quarter slowdown for the first time since Cook became CEO in 2011. (Bloomberg)
Apple shares fell 10% to $142.19, the biggest drop in almost six years, the next day.
In the letter, Cook said Apple’s gross margin will be approximately 38%. (also discussed in a previous post about Apple’s pricing strategy)
Chinese Phone Makers Gaining In Zero-growth Market
Although 2018 Q4 numbers are not yet available, Q3 numbers tell the same story. According to IDC Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker on Nov 1.
| Company | 3Q18 Shipment Volumes (millions) | 3Q18 Market Share | 3Q17 Shipment Volumes (millions) | 3Q17 Market Share | 3Q18/3Q17 Change |
| Samsung | 72.2 | 20.3% | 83.3 | 22.1% | -13.4% |
| Huawei | 52.0 | 14.6% | 39.1 | 10.4% | 32.9% |
| Apple | 46.9 | 13.2% | 46.7 | 12.4% | 0.5% |
| Xiaomi | 34.3 | 9.7% | 28.3 | 7.5% | 21.2% |
| OPPO | 29.9 | 8.4% | 30.6 | 8.1% | -2.1% |
| Others | 119.9 | 33.8% | 149.8 | 39.6% | -19.9% |
| Total | 355.2 | 100.0% | 377.8 | 100.0% | -6.0% |
And in Gartner’s December report…
| Vendor | 3Q18 Units (thousands) | 3Q18 Market Share (%) | 3Q17 Units (thousands) | 3Q17 Market Share (%) |
| Samsung | 73,360.1 | 18.9 | 85,605.3 | 22.3 |
| Huawei | 52,218.4 | 13.4 | 36,501.8 | 9.5 |
| Apple | 45,746.6 | 11.8 | 45,441.9 | 11.8 |
| Xiaomi | 33,219.7 | 8.5 | 26,853.2 | 7.0 |
| OPPO | 30,563.4 | 7.9 | 29,449.2 | 7.7 |
| Others | 153,960.0 | 39.6 | 159,742.0 | 41.6 |
| Total | 389,068.2 | 100.0 | 383,593.4 | 100.0 |
What is good for Apple…
From Cook’s letter, we know Apple’s wearables sales grew by almost 50% year-over-year, as Apple Watch and AirPods were wildly popular among holiday shoppers.
2019 – A Year of Alliance?
As the first week of 2019 developed with JPM Healthcare Conference in San Francisco and CES in Las Vegas, several alliances across big companies attracted attentions. This might be a year of further cooperations as free growth is not possible and some major developments need different domain knowledge & power.
Intel & Facebook – AI chips (new Nervana Neural Network Processor for Inference) in the second half of this year, according to Reuters, and following the previous collaboration.
Qualcomm & Ford – demonstrating driving situations utilizing C-V2X direct communications, following last year’s partnership announcement.
Celgene & Bristol-Myers Squibb – collaboration-like merger for a stronger presence in oncology & immunology. (news release)
GM & DoorDash – deliver food in self-driving cars. (CNN)
and last month…
Starbucks & UberEats – expanding the partnership to more than 2,000 stores in the United States next year, about a quarter of all of the company’s locations in the country. (TechCrunch)