Assessing 2025 predictions – CICC overseas

1/ US equity

S&P ended at 6,845.50, with ~18% total return in 2025, or doubling CICC’s return prediction.

我们测算,在乐观预期 10%盈利增长的驱动下,标普 500 或从当前的 5800 上涨 8~10%至 6200~6400 点左右。

– CICC Nov 2024

2/ US treasury

In 2025, US 10yr treasury is rarely below 4%; ended ~25bps higher than CICC prediction.

10 年美债利率合理中枢为 3.8-4%

– CICC Nov 2024

3/ US dollar

In 2025, US dollar index is rarely above 100 after Apr tariff announcement, lower than CICC prediction.

我们测算的中枢为 102-106

– CICC Nov 2024

4/ Copper & Oil

Oil declined in 2025, but copper is up 50%.

大宗中性偏多,等待催化剂。铜的需求更多与中国相关,油则更多受地缘和供给影响。从中美信用周期角度,在目前点位进一步看空意义不大,但向上动力和时间目前仍不明朗,需要等待催化剂。

– CICC Nov 2024

 

5/ Gold

Gold is extremely strong, ending 2025 with near $4,300 to over $4,400 per ounce, a lot higher than CICC prediction

黄金短期中性。黄金已经超出我们基于实际利率和美元的基本面模型测算可支撑的 2400-2600 美元/盎司。但地缘局势、央行购金和局部“去美元”需求带来了额外的风险溢价。我们测算,俄乌局势以来溢价中枢上行至 100-200
美元。长期依然可以作为不确定性对冲,但短期我们建议中性。

– CICC Nov 2024

Another reason why old is new and new is old

Please see previous post on Old economy is new and new economy is old.

Here is another reason why this happened.

In the era of AI, robots and space, the TAM is beyond human beings.

The electricity is not only consumed by human, but will also by AI agents and robots.

Robots and AI agents will be the “new population” in physical and virtual forms.

Robots and AI agents will have their own identity, wallet, etc.; robots will need additional space to house.

If we will become multi-planet, we will be building a lot more, which will require a lot of manufacturing capacity, materials, power etc.

Thus, old can become new.

Meanwhile, the human being population may not increase that much.

Those human consumption categories will not increase with the “new population”.

Consumer internet probably won’t have dramatically increased TAM, as the ultimate demand comes from human beings.

Thus, new can become old.


Some will keep being “old”.

E.g. Robots and AI agents will not consume alcohol/baijiu.

Old economy is new and new economy is old

Part of the previous “old economy”, such as industrials (e.g. heavy manufacturing), material (e.g. mining), utilities (e.g. electricity) are becoming the new “new economy” due to AI and related investments.

Indeed, AI isn’t just an app-layer story; it’s a capex + physics story.

They’re on the critical path of AI expansion, and they’re supply-constrained enough to earn economic rents.

Meanwhile, part of the previous “new economy” is becoming old, like software, e-commerce etc.

Software is less scarce, with AI-assisted coding and commoditized building blocks

E-commerce matured in many markets. China is the prime example. China’s gov reported e-commerce (physical goods) growth has been below 10% for 4 consecutive years since 2022.

The worst credit is issued at the best of times

I am recently reading Howard Marks’ The Most Important Thing and come across the section describing the credit cycle.

Why the worst credit is issued at the best of times?

Because bad news is scarce and when financial institutions compete for market share by lowering lending standards or required returns.

Typically when there is more capital available to companies or individuals, you have lower return on capital when they invest.

Then when something bad happens, the cost of capital can shoot up and become higher than the return of capital generated by the previous projects.

These projects can’t sustain in the new environment and thus are destroying capital.

———

This is also true in valuation and VC returns.

The worst VC deals are made during the best of times!

Remember the 2020-21 era? Not hard to destroy some capital if you invest in a SaaS company with 40x P/S during that time.

Read more on SaaS P/S here – The previous 40x P/S sector was SaaS

The previous 40x P/S sector was SaaS

Cloud and SaaS received premium valuation from 2020 to 2021.

The outperformance started in 2016 and lasted 5-6 years. Watch that outperformance here: https://cloudindex.bvp.com/

Back then, “rule of 40” is the king of valuation metrics, which means “um of revenue growth and profit margin should equal 40%+”. The higher the better of course.

While market fluctuates, you can find the P/S or revenue multiple in the past.

Here, you see that in 2016 companies at rule of 40 receives ~6-7x current year revenue multiple.

Here, you see that in 2020 companies at rule of 40 receives 17x LTM revenue, or 12.8x forward revenue.

During this 2020-21 period, it’s normal to see 30-40x P/S for hot SaaS companies. I remembered Shopify was 40x P/S.

Looks at these charts from here – the evidence of 30-40x P/S glory days.

We all know what happened next.

 

 

That multiple fell back to ~6x for the regression line in 2022, with Fed raising interest rates. See here for the chart.

 

The multiple has stabilized afterwards, from 2022 till now.

Currently, the valuation (forward revenue multiple) is ~4-5x for 2nd and 3rd quantile companies followed by BVP, including the names like Salesforce, Hubspot, Workday, Nutanix, etc.

BVP has introduced the new the Rule of X to give growth more credit btw.

I think some bubble is brewing now, with AI model companies or even chip companies.

However, investors keeps dancing, expecting that Trump will appoint new Fed Chair this year and the new chair won’t raise rates. Trump wants lower rates, not higher.

Maybe we should see another around of crazy valuation first.

And if SaaS outperformed 5-6 years (2016-2021), maybe AI-related stuff should outperform till 2027/28.

VPN and 另纸签

Interestingly, the two things give me similar feeling.

VPN is needed when people in HK use services like ChatGPT.

另纸签 is needed when Chinese people are entering Vietnam.

The usage of VPN in HK for ChatGPT started when US doesn’t want to recognize Hong Kong as special and treat it more like mainland China.

The usage of 另纸签 started when Vietnam doesn’t want to recognize the map on a Chinese passport.

Sometimes you feel the moves are a bit “childish”, but also “smart” in managing tensions.

 

Nvidia to become new android+qualcom

In the smartphone era, Google’s Android and Qualcom chips is a powerful solution for many hardware makers.

Nvidia looks to resemble that status alone in self-driving, with this announcement. The Alpamayo + Thor combo provide self-driving software + chip for cars.

More than that, it looks that Nvidia might also do that in robots.

Obviously, Tesla would be the Apple of this era.

Btw, Nvidia’s evaluation data set includes lidar data  https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/PhysicalAI-Autonomous-Vehicles-NuRec

This dataset has a total of 1727 hours of driving recorded from planned data-collection drives in 25 countries and 2500+ cities. The data captures diverse traffic, weather conditions, obstacles, and pedestrians in the environment. It consists of 310,895 clips that are each 20 seconds long. The sensor data includes multi-camera and LiDAR coverage for all clips, and radar coverage for 163,850 clips.

 

Popmart, holidays and 犒赏经济

Recently, 犒赏经济 has become a hot topic in China. The related articles try to show resilience in consumption and suggest a way to lift consumption.

While I agree with the necessity of this concept, as consumption in China needs to upgrade to “quality consumption” as some may say, I think 犒赏经济 is also trying to avoid some other key issues.

1/ key examples of 犒赏经济 are also lipstick effect.

Usually these articles argue that the rise in blind box toy sale like Popmart is a form of 犒赏经济.

However, if you think about it, Popmart toy is also like high-end brand lipsticks – people are replacing large item luxury purchases (handbags etc.) with smaller items ($20).

The desire to buy luxury products still exist during a bad economy, but people choose to buy stuff that have less impact on their financials.

One common use case of Popmart toy is to attach it to luxury handbags. Adding the “attachment” makes people feel that the handbag is “new” , thus somehow replacing the need to buy a new one.

Other examples of 犒赏经济 can also be lipstick effect.

Buying a nice dessert on the way back home? That’s a replacement for a much more expensive dinner out.

2/ 犒赏经济 tolerates other negative effects on overall consumption like stress or off-times.

Some part of the 犒赏经济 is not to celebrate in my opinion.

The mental stress is usually mentioned as a cause of rise in 犒赏经济, but is that a good thing? Are economists going to argue that in order to drive 犒赏经济, more people need to feel the stress?

Plus, these articles avoided discussions of long working hours and short holidays.

Long working hours is limiting dinner consumption and other 夜间经济.

In most companies in China, young people only get 5 days of annual leave per years. In additional, many companies will ask why you take a leave, and there is no such thing as getting paid for unused leaves. I bet many European people would say that like hundreds of years ago.

In 1936, France introduced law for 2 weeks of paid leave for all workers. This is on top of 9 days of national holiday at that time. The 2 weeks was further raised to 3 weeks in 1956, to 4 weeks in 1969, and to 5 weeks in 1982.

Wonder why concert is more popular than traveling? Because concert is usually in the city or a weekend trip that doesn’t involve taking a leave.

Let me just stop here.

Overall there are huge potentials in consumption in China I believe, and the quality consumption is the way to go. But some limiting factors need to be addressed first.