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NIO Feeling Similar Pain As Tesla – Lack of Demand

When Tesla said “Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter”, NIO wanted to say something similar.

The 2019 Q1 deliveries number was approximately half of that in 2018 Q4. (Still a good job in ramping up production fast)

To compare in numbers:

    • Tesla deliveries is ~15.8x NIO’s in 2019 Q1, ~11.4x  in 2018 Q4
    • Tesla’s automotive revenue in 2018 Q4 was $6.3 billion vs. NIO $0.5 billion:  ~12.6x
    • Current valuation 8x ($40bn vs. $5bn)

NIO said ES6 (to start deliveries in June) should have more than 10,000 pre-orders before deliveries.

Hong Kong Biotech IPOs – How Are They Doing

Filing Date Prospectus Date
HKG:1672 Ascletis Pharma Inc 歌礼制药 05/07/2018 7/20/2018
HKG:2552 Hua Medicine 華領醫藥 06/06/2018 8/31/2018
HKG:1801 Innovent Biologics Inc 信達生物 06/28/2018 10/18/2018
HKG:6185 Cansino Biologics Inc 康希諾生物 7/17/2018 3/18/2019
HKG:6160 Beigene Ltd 百濟神州 7/24/2018 7/30/2018
HKG:1877 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co Ltd 君實生物 08/06/2018 12/11/2018
HKG:2616 CStone Pharmaceuticals 基石藥業 11/11/2018 2/14/2019

An Update on Tesla

In the previous post on Tesla’s productions & deliveries (2018 Q4), a not-so-good Q1 is somehow foreseeable, when Model 3 has little QoQ growth from Q3 to Q4 despite the holiday season and a fade in US tax credit at year-end.

Tesla has more concerning issues.

Depressed Margins

The mass production of Model 3 in 2018 H2 helped to improve the automotive sales gross margin in Q3 and Q4.

However, due to the price reduction in 2019 Q1, less absorption of fixed cost and more international deliveries, the automotive sales gross margin went back to the 18-19% region in 2019 Q1.

While production in China is expected to reach a rate of 2,000 vehicles a week by the end of 2019 (according to Elon Musk), the gross margin of automotive sales will remain <20% for 2019 I think (with model 3 basic)

Tesla said the capital spend (CapEx) per unit of capacity for Shanghai factory is expected to be less than half of that of the Model 3 line in Fremont. Not 50% COGS though.

Model S & X Halved

Number of produced is at ~56% of 2018 Q4.

Number of delivered is at ~44% of 2018 Q4.

Though, Tesla reaffirmed its prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019, thanks to the confidence in Model 3.

China Sales

Although China (China and Europe mainly) sales in 2018 decreased compared to 2017, Tesla’s March performance in China is exceptional, with 9,273 in total (Model 3: 7515; Model X: 1490; Model S: 268)

Tesla Vehicles Sold in China 2019 Q1 | Source: Che Jing She, sohu.com

Many attributed the jump in sales to the “one time” price adjustment in China, including a ¥341 drop in the most expansive Model X (P100D), which then corrected by a general 3% increase.

Source: sohu.com

But the ongoing sales numbers is still in question.

China’s EV market has been increasingly competitive. And in April, a video of a parked Model S emitting smoke and bursting into flames seconds later was spreading across China’s Weibo, which doesn’t do any help.

 

Who Is Using Financial Mobile Apps

Paypal released its Venmo active users – 40M

Its’s very impressive compared with comparables.

    • JPMorgan: 51M
    • Bank of America: 37M
    • Wells Fargo: 30M
    • Square Cash App: 15M

While there are different types of fee (revenue) in Venmo like instant transfer and merchant fees, I was wondering if Venmo could do ads as well – like Instagram.

 

Game of Thrones Whiskys

Game of Thrones Single Malt Scotch Whisky Collection | Source: esquire.com

Back in October 2018, HBO and DIAGEO unveiled 9 GOT co-branded whiskies – the new White Walker by Johnnie Walker Blended Scotch Whisky and The Game of Thrones Single Malt Scotch Whisky Collection (8).

Let’s look into some of those whiskies…

lWhite Walker by Johnnie Walker Blended Scotch Whisky | Source: multivu.com

White Walker by Johnnie Walker SRP: $36 for 750ml; ABV 41.7%

    • Rich seasonal flavors of vanilla, red fruits and orchard fruits
    • Single Malts from Cardhu and Clynelish – one of Scotland’s most Northern distilleries, feature in the product.
Game of Thrones Scotch whiskies: Dalwhinnie Winter’s Frost
House Stark – Dalwhinnie Winter’s Frost | Source: Diageo

Game of Thrones House Stark – Dalwhinnie Winter’s Frost; SRP: $39.99 for 750ml; ABV 43%

Game of Thrones Scotch whiskies: Cardhu Gold Reserve
House Targaryen – Cardhu Gold Reserve | Source: Diageo

Game of Thrones House Targaryen – Cardhu Gold Reserve; SRP: $39.99 for 750ml; ABV 40%

Game of Thrones Scotch whiskies: Lagavulin 9 Year
House Lannister – Lagavulin 9 Year Old | Source: Diageo

Game of Thrones House Lannister – Lagavulin 9 Year Old; SRP: $64.99 for 750ml; ABV 46%

    • The distillery of Lagavulin officially dates from 1816, when John Johnston and Archibald Campbell constructed two distilleries on the site. One of them became Lagavulin, taking over the other—which one is not exactly known. Records show illicit distillation in at least ten illegal distilleries on the site as far back as 1742 [Wikipedia]

No Foreign Property Ownership Allowed In Indonesia

Just went to Indonesia last week and realized that protective rules are more general than I previously had thought.

So the origin – Indonesian Agrarian Law, Law No. 5 of 1960, governs the property ownership in Indonesia in regards to lands.

Article 21.

(4) As long as person possesses a foreign nationality in addition to his Indonesian nationality he/she may not possess any land with ownership right…

Land ownership is called Hak Milik (Right of Ownership) (“HM”), the most complete land title available under Indonesian law. Only Indonesian citizens are allowed to hold HM

Also stated in this law, foreigners are permitted to purchase land or homes under the “Hak Pakai” or “Right to Use” title.

Article 41.

(1) The right of use is the right to use and/or to collect the product, from land directly controlled by the State, or land owned by other persons which gives the rights and obligations stipulated in the decision upon grating this right by the authorized official, or in the agreement to work the land, as far as it not conflict with the spirit and the provision of this law.

Article 42.

Those who may obtain the right of use are:
a. Indonesian citizen;
b. Foreigner residing in Indonesia;
c. Corporation which have been established according to Indonesian Law and having they seat in Indonesia;
d. Foreign corporations having a representation in Indonesia.

There is also the “right to lease”

Those who may become holders of the right to lease are:
a. Indonesian citizens;
b. Foreigner residing in Indonesia;
c. Corporation which has been established according to Indonesia law and having their seats in Indonesia;
d. Foreign corporation having a representative in Indonesia;

In practise, there are usually 3 ways:

1. Hak Pakai (right to use),

for a period up to 80 years (an initial period of 30 years and can be extended twice by 20 years and a further 30 years).

The Indonesian banks will NOT lend money to property owners that only have Hak Pakai status for their property.

2. PT PMA (Perseroan Terbatas Penanaman Modal Asing)

In short, PT PMA = foreign limited liability company

PMA is a legal entity through which a foreign person, foreign company, or foreign government body can obtain the property ownership in Indonesia (meaning generating revenue streams and profit). The establishment of a PT PMA is regulated by Law No. 40/2007 regarding Limited Liability Companies.

PMA can acquire “Hak Guna Bangunana” (“HGB” )  titles, which is the “right to build”

HGB can later easily be converted back to Hak Milik, for example, if the property is sold to an Indonesian or if the foreign investor decides to use the Nominee method.

HGB has a maximum initial period of 30 years and can be extended for a maximum period of 20 years.

HBG can be mortgaged for credit applications to financial institutions.

3. Nominee method

Essentially, it is purchasing a property with its title in the name of an Indonesian citizen. Not allowed.

 

Books, Digital Books, Public Libraries

So nowadays we are comfortable with two facts:

    1. Books can be digital. It is good for distribution, near zero marginal cost of production, no burden on environment, reducing the barrier of knowledge.
    2. There are public libraries that provide free borrowing for resources including books (physical).

Then here comes the question – why libraries don’t provide free digital version of books.

The Answer could be very simple.

No one will buy books then…..

Then there is another question – since public libraries are funded by governments (tax payers) and donors, why are books not subsidized by governments like healthcare or education.

Why don’t governments make a list of knowledge-based books nearly free?

Authors should receive a stream of cash flows from taxpayers, for the contribution of their books.

 

Coffee Chains in China

In a previous post about Starbucks, we talked about its potential in China.

China’s coffee consumption will explode, even considering major cities alone. Younger generations will consume more coffee and they will represent an increasing proportion of the overall urban population.

China coffee consumption potential | Source: Starbucks 6/19 Presentation

Everyone sees the market and opportunities – one of the most eye-catching player is Luckin Coffee (瑞幸咖啡), who just filed to be listed on Nasdaq.

Image result for Luckin Coffee
Source: TechCrunch

The expansion in terms of coverage & number of stores is very impressive: 9 stores by the end of 2017 and 2,370 stores by the end of 2019Q1, although most (91.3 %) of them are pick-up stores (see above).

By comparison, in May 2018, Starbucks announced that it is planning to build nearly 3,000 new stores in mainland China over the next few years (from 3,300 in 2018Q1 to 6,000 before the end of 2022).

Things to notice:

    • Luckin Coffee outsourced delivery services mainly to S.F. Express (顺丰控股SHE: 002352)
    • Luckin’s investors are mainly related to UCAR INC. (神州优车 NEEQ:838006)
    • Didn’t see GIC or BlackRock or Legend Capital as major shareholders (>5%)
    • Loss is significant: ¥527 million operation loss on ¥361 million revenue in 2019Q1 (-110.1%)
    • No significant revenue growth from 2018Q4 to 2019Q1: 465,433k to 478,510k (+2.8%)
    • There was a decrease in advertising cost: 127,372 in 2018Q4 -> 93,080 in 2018Q4 -> 40,143 in 2019Q1