also here: https://time.com/6317339/rooftop-solar-power-failure/
Solar panel for some = Financial products that don’t work
And this disappoints customers.
As a product, it fail too easy and too often.
Too sales driven and customers feel they got tricked.
Thinking about this question, here are five potential answers.
1/ For the older generations, shortages are deeply rooted in their memory, so they dislike the idea that anything might be in short supply.
2/ The required return is too low. Many experienced poverty in their youth, therefore lots of effort for little money is still attractive.
3/ The local governments want to create local jobs and boast about industrial upgrades, with banks being the main enablers. When every local government invest in a similar direction at the same time, it’s hard to control and estimate the entire capacity.
4/ For top party members, abundance of all sorts of goods is a sign of victory for socialism and communism.
5/ China is preparing for war. Many capacity will shut down if at war.
Uber Mobility had ~$70bn gross booking in 2023, and recorded $20bn revenue.
Drivers should earn ~70%, or $49bn, as Uber Mobility’s revenue margin is ~29%.
Based on drivers’ feedbacks, it seems that net earnings after expenses are roughly 2/3.
Then what self-driving can replace is 2/3 of that $49bn, or $32bn per year.
This doesn’t include UberEats (Delivery).
Uber had about $3.6bn operating cash flow in 2023; it made ~$2bn adj. EBITDA after SBC.
That $32bn net “savings” can lift Uber’s profitability by 10-fold.
What’s missing?
The additional insurance needed for self-driving as software can make mistakes?
The job losses around the world?
If can solve self-driving at night, it would be great! We human beings need to sleep.
It might not be that surprising, but many sponsors of major China local (provincial) soccer clubs in the Chinese Super League didn’t do well after naming the team.
Dalian Wanda and Dalian Shide were the names for Dalian’s soccer club. Dalian is only a city in Liaoning, but Dalian Shide was a strong team in the Chinese Super League. Dalian Aerbin is another club in Liaoning; the boss tried to acquire Dalian Shide.
More people might have heard about Evergrande. Evergrande purchased Guangzhou soccer club in 2010. Guangzhou Evergrande won seven consecutive Chinese Super League titles from 2011 to 2017.
Similar stories could be found for teams across cities/provinces, e.g. Jiangsu, Beijing, Shanghai, etc.
I am not sure if this is common globally. I can think about FTX, which sponsored the Mercedes F1 team and Golden State Warriors. But it’s not something consistently happening on the global stage.
Maybe it’s due to the business model. Property developers were very profitable and can benefit from broader audience with the clubs’ naming. Usually male watch those soccer matches more often, and those who have time and money to watch sports could be wealthier and thus homebuyers.
It’s hard to be top notch in every industry.
The best talents in a country will bring strength to one industry which is tech for the US. If tech gets the smartest minds, of course other industries may not be able to compete at their max potential.
Boeing pleads guilty for 737 Max crashes.
Boeing benefited from its market position and gov contracts, while GM needs to compete in the more fierce commercial world. However the drivers and outcome feel a bit similar to me.
It could be about global competition but that’s limited (Airbus and SpaceX), and Covid is just one-off. Blame China? Sure China is not buying many planes like before, but it’s very early in actually competing in airplane manufacturing. I assume Airbus is not breaking many rules to compete. SpaceX might have some technology breakthrough, but Boeing also has r&d and should have unparalleled industry expertise.
The harder question is what’s Boeing’s (and broadly US manufacturing) competitive advantage over the longer term? Why TSMC didn’t do well in the US?
From a previous post, I touched on this – how to recreate the manufacturing industry in US is a question about how to make this sector attractive compared with other industries for young people and for capital.
Fiscal spending and subsidy is not a permanent solution. Tech didn’t rely much on subsidy to grow.
Maybe there is a negative side effect of being very strong in the technology sector?
Maybe US has evolved over the years so that the nature of this industry didn’t deserve a lot of attention? Maybe Tesla robot is an answer to unleash the manufacturing potential.
It’s tough for small countries to negotiate with big countries, like any single individual is hard to fight a big company.
To protect individual employees, union is needed.
It’s the same for small countries.
It’s different from UN, which INCLUDE big counties. It’s not like BRICS etc., as China is already a super power.
It should be small countries only. And they shall work together and organize a team to fight for their rights in negotiations.
Sure this may cost some money, but the benefit shall outweigh.
They shall need to resist the attempt to make separate deals with big countries – this will undermine the coalition and bargain power collectively.
Prolonged worsening US-China relationship has more indirect casualties it appears.
Recently, a women who defended Japanese nationals from being attacked in Suzhou passed away.
A 30-year girl in Shanghai suicided when facing a declining housing price (~3-4mn rmb of down payment loss) and cut in pay.
We might not feel US-China relationship in our daily life, but it’s around us.
It’s affecting every corner of the world.
Nike stock was a loser last week. Nike is under pressure with fiscal year 2025 to be down mid-single digit in revenue.
However, this is exactly what the US needs right now – weaker consumer, cooler economy.
Lower demand tempers inflation and it’s easier for Fed to see the data it wants.
When Fed gets what it needs and cuts the interest rate, others thing could look for bottoms or better terms – whether it’s commercial real estate or refinancing some low cost CBs.
If you want to get there faster, you better hope for the opposite.
When more people see only one cut or no cut, overall economy will cool a bit. Companies and consumers would tighten their belts, which will be helpful to the Fed.
When the market is pricing in “higher for longer”, multiples come down & stocks drop. Here, the reverse wealth effect will drive down inflation.
Talk bad stuff, so you can get good result in the end.
I believe in good people.
Where is alpha = where are the good people? + Can they achieve their best with the right culture?
The second the part is equivalently important. Can companies keep their talents? And when two companies both have top talents, one may do better over the other in the long run.
Culture includes many things, like process, organizational structure, physical environment, incentives etc.
Overtime, a company with the best talents can decay.
Overtime, even a company didn’t start with the best people, it can develop their people, and attract the best people over time, if the culture is right.
Very interesting – that iPhone sold in mainland China is dual physical SIM, and iPhone sold in the US is dual e-sim.
Not compatible at all.
In the US, iPhone 13 is the last model that has a physical tray, so that you can have a US +1 number (e-sim) and a Chinese +86 number (physical only) in the same device.
E-sim is not technically impossible in China. It’s just not available for smartphones. China Unicom does offer e-sim on some iPad models.