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Some Thoughts on E-sport Comparing to Traditional Sport Industry

E-sport is a very hot growing industry with the future format of living embedded in. It is the intersection between gaming, technology, social, media and entertainment.

There are some related concepts, e.g. streaming gaming, and they share some similar fundamental building blocks.

Future of gaming will be mostly based on cloud. Just like Office Suite and Adobe Suite is moving to the subscription model, the computer gaming industry is making that transition as well and this might be the next growth opportunity for Microsoft (with its cloud computing services, Hololens and Xbox, etc.) and other companies. In fact, most of the mobile games today have already relied on continuous connections, instead of a publisher model like movie/music (buy, download and play).

As certain games (now and in the future) would be considered as “sports”, they inherently include related business opportunities – worldwide competitions, leagues, sale of tickets, game watching and ads, etc. It is very similar to today’s sports and is able to provide a more authentic experience as games are born to be digital (unlike traditional sports that are recorded and digitalized for TV/videos). The concerns here include: 1. the watchableness of players playing games is hard to improve. Players are just sitting in front of the PC or even holding phones. (It is the characters they are playing are watchable) 2. Compared to traditional sports, games usually need a certain level of understanding to enjoy, while sports are commonly understandable and may have some natural beauty to watch.

The leading games that are run like “sports” include LOL (League of Legends), Dota2, Overwatch, etc. The Dota2 international competition in 2018 (TI8) has $25.5 million prize pool. Another major company to “sportify” gaming it Amazon, with its Twitch platform, on which there are 140 million monthly active users. [Netflix has 139 million subscribers globally]

From the technology perspective, the increasing power of cloud is definitely the driver here. Additionally, the coming 5G (low latency, faster transmission of larger data) and AR/VR (actually bringing sports alive; and to solve the watchableness issue maybe) will revolutionize our view on gaming and e-sports. That will even redefine what is “living” and “socializing” in the future (say 25-50 years).

The concept of “playing video games with friends” will be barely used. The line may be so blur that the following concepts are true “life is a real game” and “living on the net”.

And then virtual goods will be huge market. It’s not only buying on the internet (which is e-commerce) but also using on the internet. The virtue clothing on a virtual character we control would have value. Many people are buying or will buy virtual luxury goods. It doesn’t matter if a product’s actually cost is $100 or $0 – they can be sold at $3000. Clothings have already gone far beyond keeping us warm anyway.

E-sports is part of the test field or connection between our current world and the future living.

China’s New Nasdaq-style “Technology Innovation Board”

Although China’s economy and stock market size has been growing fast, the underlying capital market mechanisms are not as advanced.

China has made several efforts to modernize its stock market, but mostly remained in the previous framework or didn’t become a game-changer.

This time is different.

Regulatory approvals are replaced by general registration processes (guidance and regulations still there). Any company that fulfills certain requirements can go public.

Pre-profit companies can go public. Previously, the stock market was heavily leaning towards sectors with profits like banking.

Different share structures are allowed. Super voting power is allowed.

Lock-up period is higher than NASDAQ’s.

Attached is a presentation from a major investment bank in China.

20190302.pdf

Too Low The Value For Bristol Shareholders

The $74 billion merger between Bristol and Celgene was an uncertain one, opposed by Wellington (more than 8% of BMY) & Starboard (recently added position of less than 0.5% of BMY).

The merger in assets actually makes sense to me and should make sense to many investors. But the question of BMY-only shareholders, who don’t own much CELG stocks, is that the benefits are probably captured unevenly by Celgene.

Suppose the base case for Celgene stock price without acquisition is $75 and the merger price is $50 cash + 1 BMY share ($52 value) + $9 option ($3 value) -> $105 per share – when it was traded at $90/share, the market suggested a probability 50% of a successful merger. [75*(1-p) + 105*p = 90]

When CELG was traded at $84, the market suggested a success rate of 30%. [75*(1-p) + 105*p = 84]


(Yes, the market just take simple numbers… )

Wellington/Starboard might just want to add more negotiation power to get some other benefits (special board treatment e.g.) or to load up some CELG…

BMY alone probably won’t perform very well, they should understand that.

 

China’s Greater Bay Area vs. San Francisco Bay Area – Transit

SF Bay Area’s rail transit


SF Bay Area BART (one of the major rail transits above) service’s map, including planned projects

Source: futuretravel.today

SF Bay Area airports map (3 major airports: SFO, SJC, OAK)

Source: airportspotting.com

China’s Greater Bay Area newly-built bridge

Source: scmp.com

Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge is adding Hong Kong’s direct conenction with Zhuhai. To some extent, it is reducing the unparalleled weight of Hong Kong-Shenzhen bond.

Source: NY Times

China’s Greater Bay Area transit map

Source: lantau.gov.hk

China’s Greater Bay Area airports map

Source: scmp.com

Shenzhen and Hong Kong’s airports will be the dual core. Macau’s airport will gain more importance (towards tourists). Guangzhou’s airport will probably share more responsibility as the connecting point for all other cities China (the connecting hub was Hong Kong).

Smart Phones in 2019 – Foldable

The incremental improvements in smartphones are less exciting in recent years. Besides the introduction of 5G, companies trying to get consumers’ attentions have introduced foldable phones this year – a more dramatic change in appearance (to show that you have the latest/expansive phone).


Foldable Phones by Companies

Samsung: Galaxy Fold

Source: USA Today

Huawei: Mate X, 2299 euros

Source: CNBC.com

Xiaomi

https://youtu.be/w3-aDOMI6Mk

Apple (concept, not released):

Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 To be Crowned for Global Push (?)

No doubt, Qualcomm has dominated the world in 4G and LTE and has invested a lot to prepare for the 5G future. As one of first and steady leaders & supporters & promoters in 5G technology, Qualcomm revealed its flagship Snapdragon 855 mobile platform on December 5, 2018 in Hawaii. [Qualcomm Snapdragon Tech Summit 2018]

With the Mobile World Congress (MWC) happening this week and many world’s leading handset brands having announced their products to be launched later this year, Snapdragon 855’s worldwide penetration map has become clear.

1. First of all, the largest handset manufacturer by shipment Samsung announced its 10th anniversary phones – Galaxy S10 series.

Source: samsung.com

There are four versions:

  • S10e       $750
  • S10         $900 with free Samsung’s wireless earbuds
  • S10+       $1000 with free Samsung’s wireless earbuds
  • S10 5G   bigger screen and battery, an additional rear camera (4!), with Qualcomm’s X50 5G modem, pricier and available on later dates ($1,200 up, depending on sale of S10+ I think) [Read more on S10 5G]

S10 series will use Snapdragon 855 platform in regions including North America, Latin America, Hong Kong, China, and Japan, and in Europe it will be using Samsung’s own Exynos 9820.

2. Xiaomi announced its Mi 9 in China on February 20.

Source: blog.mi.com

Mi 9 might be the cheapest handset with Snapdragon 855 available globally, starting at RMB ¥2,999 in China and €450 in Europe. Xiaomi also revealed Mi 9 SE, priced lower at RMB ¥1,999, featuring Snapdragon 710. And a global launch event is in Barcelona during MWC on 24 February.

Another version of a previous handset by Xiaomi – Mi Mix 3 5G is also announced today at MWC. Mi Mix 3, when introduced in October 2018, uses Snapdragon 845; the new 5G version will use Snapdragon 855, plus Qualcomm’s X50 5G modem. The device will be available in May for €599 (cheapest 5G with Qualcomm’s X50 modem?) in selected Europe market. [TechCrunch]

Source: TechCrunch

Xiaomi is one of Qualcomm’s crucial allies in Chinese market (and globally).

3. OnePlus to announce OnePlus 7 5G with Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 855 and X50 5G modem

A Chinese company that is doing surprisingly well in its global presence I’d say. By not focusing on Chinese market, OnePlus’ majority brand/marking/community efforts are outside of China IMO.

On the Qualcomm Snapdragon Technology Summit mentioned above, OnePlus has said it will work with EE (a division of BT, the largest operator in UK) to be the first to release a commercial 5G smartphone in Europe (second half of 2019 in UK and Finland, according to the recent report by USA Today).

Although OnePlus has been very successful in US before, it will solely focus on Europe at the first launch (different operator partners with Xiaomi).

4. Lenovo Z5 Pro GT – available only in China starting at ¥2698, first Snapdragon 855 phone available

Source: NDTV Gadgets

5. LG G8 ThinQ and V50 ThinQ – announced on MWC today, both with Snapdragon 855, the difference between the two is that V50 has 5G connectivity by Qualcomm partnering with Sprint

Source: Verge

So it becomes clear that Snapdragon 855 will be in

  • US with Samsung and LG
  • Europe with Xiaomi and OnePlus
  • China & Asia with Samsung, Xiaomi, Lenovo, LG

5G modem is more complicated with carriers’ spectrum but Qualcomm seems to be ready for its 5G globally, with the existing X50 and newly released X55. (And Apple will need another year from Intel for 5G…)

Source: anandtech.com

「Video of the Week」First FDA-Approved Gene Therapy by Spark And Its First Patient in US (Spark being acquired today)

Roche to acquire Spark with a 122% premium of it previous closing price, with a deal valued of ~$4.3 billion.

Spark won FDA’s first approval on gene therapy for genetic disease more than one year ago, treating retinal dystrophy (by mutations on the RPE65 gene) with LUXTURNA. The treatment carries a list price of $850,000, or $425,000 per eye.

Besides, Spark Therapeutics has SPK-8011 in clinical trials, a novel gene therapy for the treatment of haemophilia A, which is expected to start Phase 3 in 2019.

Here is a brief video of the procedure for it first patient in US last March.