Popmart, holidays and 犒赏经济

Recently, 犒赏经济 has become a hot topic in China. The related articles try to show resilience in consumption and suggest a way to lift consumption.

While I agree with the necessity of this concept, as consumption in China needs to upgrade to “quality consumption” as some may say, I think 犒赏经济 is also trying to avoid some other key issues.

1/ key examples of 犒赏经济 are also lipstick effect.

Usually these articles argue that the rise in blind box toy sale like Popmart is a form of 犒赏经济.

However, if you think about it, Popmart toy is also like high-end brand lipsticks – people are replacing large item luxury purchases (handbags etc.) with smaller items ($20).

The desire to buy luxury products still exist during a bad economy, but people choose to buy stuff that have less impact on their financials.

One common use case of Popmart toy is to attach it to luxury handbags. Adding the “attachment” makes people feel that the handbag is “new” , thus somehow replacing the need to buy a new one.

Other examples of 犒赏经济 can also be lipstick effect.

Buying a nice dessert on the way back home? That’s a replacement for a much more expensive dinner out.

2/ 犒赏经济 tolerates other negative effects on overall consumption like stress or off-times.

Some part of the 犒赏经济 is not to celebrate in my opinion.

The mental stress is usually mentioned as a cause of rise in 犒赏经济, but is that a good thing? Are economists going to argue that in order to drive 犒赏经济, more people need to feel the stress?

Plus, these articles avoided discussions of long working hours and short holidays.

Long working hours is limiting dinner consumption and other 夜间经济.

In most companies in China, young people only get 5 days of annual leave per years. In additional, many companies will ask why you take a leave, and there is no such thing as getting paid for unused leaves. I bet many European people would say that like hundreds of years ago.

In 1936, France introduced law for 2 weeks of paid leave for all workers. This is on top of 9 days of national holiday at that time. The 2 weeks was further raised to 3 weeks in 1956, to 4 weeks in 1969, and to 5 weeks in 1982.

Wonder why concert is more popular than traveling? Because concert is usually in the city or a weekend trip that doesn’t involve taking a leave.

Let me just stop here.

Overall there are huge potentials in consumption in China I believe, and the quality consumption is the way to go. But some limiting factors need to be addressed first.

Real interest rate comparison

China, 2020-2025

  • Real interest rate is mostly in 1-2% post-2020, using 7-day repo repurchase rate.
  • Although overnight rate could be 0.3% lower, real interest rate is still in positive territory.
  • in mid-2022, real interest rate is below 0 due to short-term CPI strength when shanghai is out of lockdown.

US, post dot-com bubble

Real interest rate is below 0%, like -1%.

Fed funds rate

 

December 2001 1.75% 11 rate cuts in a single year to fight the recession.
November 2002 1.25% Further easing as the recovery remained “jobless.”
June 2003 1.00% The Bottom. The lowest rate in 45 years at that time.

CPI

 

2001
177.1
2.8%
2002
179.9
1.6%
2003
184.0
2.3%

 

US, post GFC

Real interest rate is below 0%, frequently below -1%, near -4% in Sep 2011.

Fed fund rate: 0% until Dec 2015, plus QE to keep long term rates low

CPI

 

2009
214.5
-0.4%
2010
218.1
1.6%
2011
224.9
3.2%
2012
229.6
2.1%
 2013
233.0
1.5%
 2014
236.7
1.6%
 2015
237.0
0.1%

 

Potential 30% decline in new long-term debt

According to PBOC, till Nov 2025, China residents’ long-term debt only increased 1.27 trillion rmb, compared with 1.95 trillion rmb last year.

If Dec 2025 can add 0.3 trillion like last year, it would be ~1.57 trillion rmb, thus down 30% yoy for 2025 vs 2.25 trillion in 2024.

We have already seen 3-year of consecutive decline new this number.

2021: 6.0759 trillion

2022: 3.0566 trillion (-50% yoy)

2023: 2.5507 trillion (-17% yoy)

2024: 2.25 trillion (-12% yoy)

2025: 1.57 trillion (for illustration, -30%)

This is the new additional long-term debt that households are taking, mostly related to mortgages.

This could be negative number.

Accelerated yoy decline in new residential sales in China

Previously, since 2024 policy shift (“Sep 24”), China’s housing market has stabilized for 6 month (Oct 2024 to Mar 2025).

However, since Apr 2025, that trend has reversed. Monthly new residential sales saw accelerated decline again.

 

Oct 2025 and Nov 2025 implied monthly new residential sales is down 26% and 28% yoy, vs -1% in the first quarter of 2025.

Several obvious reasons

  • deteriorating macro / increasing uncertainty after US tariff
  • no meaningful policy supply
  • high base in 4q24

How do interest rates move during wars?

Interest rate should go up.

Several factors are moving the interest rates up during wars.

  • Governments are borrowing more to fund the war; thus rates are higher
  • Production is impacted thus inflation should be higher
  • Currency can be weaker, as people are moving money to safer places, plus the fear of gov printing money. The higher interest rate is needed to compensate for the FX risk

During WWI, UK interest rose.

Consol (Long-Term Bond) Yields in the United Kingdom moved up as the war progressed:

1913: 3.4275%

1914: 3.4823%

1915: 3.8580%

1916: 4.3165%

1917: 4.5823%

1918: 4.4287%

1919: 4.6372%

However, other factors also play an role. For example, as governments want to keep borrowing costs low, interest rates can be depressed.

During WWII, US effectively ran yield-curve control: the Fed supported Treasury prices to keep yields from rising too much. Fed “assisted the Treasury in this effort by implementing a form of yield curve targeting, capping interest rates at several points along the yield curve: from 3/8 percent on T-bills to 2½ percent on long-term bonds.”

 

 

Gree is not competitor of Midea, Xiaomi is

Midea has over 400mn billion rmb revenue in 2024.

Xiaomi is climbing over 400 billion rmb revenue in 2025.

Midea’s typical gross margin is ~25%+, Xiaomi is also over 20%.

Midea net income margin is higher at ~9-10%, Xiaomi is now ~8-9%.

Both have over CNY 40bn net income in 2025.

Both have diversified business lines. And Xiaomi is entering the core home appliance segment globally.

Both have potential in future robotics business. [Xiaomi’s robot] [Midea’s robot]

Due to Xiaomi cars, Xiaomi is revenue growth is fast, projected to be ~30% in 2025. Midea revenue growth rate in 2025 is ~10%.

Xiao may compound faster, as

1/ Midea has ~70% dividend payout, while Xiaomi doesn’t pay any.

2/ Xiaomi has higher growth momentum, driven by cars.

3/ Xiaomi employees are more software and AI-focused.


Meanwhile, Gree has a smaller revenue base of ~below 200 bilion rmb, less than half of Xiaomi or Midea.

Gree does enjoy a higher net income margin of high-teens in 2024, but that may turn out to be a sign of underinvestment in talents and future development.

BTC price and AI data centers

One important movers in 2025 for BTC is the power-hungry data centers in the US.

Those data centers draw bitcoin miners away. Essentially, the power is so scarce that miners’ power supply is bought out by AI data center guys.

What happens to bitcoin price (and supply & demand)?

When miners drop/quit, bitcoin networks’s hash rate drop. Hash rate positively correlates with BTC price.

Source: https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/hashrate-vs-price

Meanwhile, as AI eats power, energy prices are higher. Ceteris paribus, miners’ operating cost rises and thus they will need to sell more bitcoins into the market.

Is it like internet bubble?

The dot-com bubble burst in March 2000, despite being called a bubble for quite some time. Indeed, the legend Tiger Management lost a lot shorting this intern bubble and handed money back to LPs in 2000.

What happened? What defining elements mark the peak?

Here are the three important events back then:

1/ March 20, 2000 – Barron’s Burning Up article

2/ March 21, 2000, Fed hiked another 25bp to 6%; hiked to 6.5% in May 2000

3/ Apr 3, 2000, “Conclusions of Law” released; Judge Jackson ruled Microsoft violated the Sherman Antitrust Act (Sections 1 & 2)

Where are we now?

For (1), actually there are many more warning before bubble burst, through 1998-1999. So if people say the FT illustration of $1tn OpenAI deal and The Information article of Oracle losing money on Nvidia chips will lead to the bubble burst, I don’t think so.

Fed – we are still in rate cutting cycle.

Gov regulations – not seeing any real destructive rules.

Party is still on.

Stay stunned.

亚洲的赌性 Asian’s appetite for gambling

If the majority of a game’s participants are keen to gamble, they may push the risk/reward of the game to a negative territory.

If this game is the stock market, you may observe the valuation as not attractive at all.

What’s worse, as a whole, these participants collectively are more likely to lose in the long run!

The game designer or host must be very happy though.

Gambling is all over the world, but why Asians are more vulnerable to gambling?

Probably due to the slim chance of a normal enjoyable life.