Why not bond risk premium?
Bonds typically have fixed payments but inflation is uncertain. One dollar 10 years from now is very hard to value.
Instead, you can trust credible companies more. They shall hold their position in the economy and take their fair share.
Isn’t that more “certain” in some way?
Thus, why we have equity risk premium.. there should bond risk premium over high quality companies.
In the first quarter of 2025, China’s renewable generated more 816 bn kWh, 816 gwh, about similar the consumption of households and the service sector combined.
Detective Conan IP generated less than 1500mn rmb revenue in a year, with film being the largest contribution (~50%).
PopMart’s Labubu generated over 3000mn rmb revenue last year, while most people don’t know Labubu’s stories, its origin, its value, etc.
UPS and FedEx reported revenue per piece/package is ~$13-$14 (1q25).
SF Express, the most premium express in China, reported ASP of 15.5 rmb in 2024 and ASP of 14.6 rmb in 1q25.
Other express delivery companies in China reported ASP of 2.3 rmb (YTO) and 2.05 rmb (STO and Yunda) in 2024.
Meanwhile, ZTO+YTO+STO+Yuanda+SF -> 330k package per day!
FedEx +UPS is ~40k package per day.
How much would you need to be paid to switch from iPhone to another smartphone?
For many people, that’s way higher than the $1,000 or so price tag.
iPhone just works.
It’s similar in stocks.
People don’t want to sell good stocks (thus ownership of good companies) even it’s a bit pricer.
They just work.
Why do you want to switch to another company?
I don’t think so.
In 2024, US trade deficit with China is slightly lower than $300bn.
To compare, in 2011, US trade deficit with China is at the same level.
Back in 2011, US GDP is $15.6 trillion and that grows to $29 trillion in 2024.
We know the math – the trade deficit with China as % of US GDP is almost halved from 2011 to 2024.
Source: US-China trade deficits over the years.
I was going to order coffee downstairs.
Met a couple, Cindy and Fab, when they were trying to order. They are in their 60s and on their 4-month vacation. They used to work in Indiana and now live in Florida.
I just realized how lovely these random conversations can be. I feel I used to have a lot of these (I might have exaggerated here) back in the states, but rarely so in China.
Maybe it’s about me.
Maybe I feel the expected outcome from random conversations is less interesting here in China, so I wasn’t intrigued to welcome one.
Maybe my attitude to life has changed a bit – I became less exploratory and want more certainty. This could be due to the distaste of negative randomness in stock market – I was exposed to a lot of it in work and in personal investing.
However, those are temporary, if anything. I felt the impulse again and that’s nothing different from what I could feel years back.
In Feb 2025, the price index of existing home across BJ/SH/SZ averaged is only -1.4% yoy, about flattish.
As of Mar 2025 data, price index of existing home across BJ/SH/SZ averaged has improved for 6 consecutive month (Oct 2024 – Mar 2025), by about 0.44% every month.
The five month from Oct to Feb month has helped the yoy comparison improve 8.6% (from -10% to -1.4%).
It was a tradition for Vanke to disclose its official monthly sales report, which includes information such as sqm (pre) sold, $ amount (pre) sold, and new projects added.
Here is the last one for Dec 2024 monthly report from Vanke; haven’t found 2025 monthly reports for Jan, Feb and Mar 2025.
Here is a monthly chart for monthly contracted sales in rmb 100mn, from Jul 2022 to Dec 2024.
Read some interesting discussion on railroad build-outs in early 20th century in China, and its impact on cities.
Before railroads expanded, China’s economy relied a lot of waterways / canals.
Railroads changed the trajectory of cities. Traditional waterborne centers were sidelined and small towns can quickly become new centers, for example,
津浦铁路: Linqing fell; Dezhou rose
京汉铁路: Kaifeng fell; Zhengzhou rose
Additionally, if two railways are built with different standard, they shall create a city, for example,
Shijiazhuang: Zhengtai Railway (metre gauge) intersecting Jinghan line (standard gauge)
Changchun: Chinese Eastern Railway (broad gauge) intersecting South Manchuria Railway (standard gauge).