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How Do E-commerces Generate Revenue? (2)

Following the previous post on Alibaba, here are two other companies similar to Alibaba’s revenue model.

Pinduoduo

GMV (billions, RMB, fiscal 2018) – 471.6 (US$68.6 billion)

revenue (Online marketing services, 2018) – 11,515.58 million

take rate: 2.4418% (of GMV)

revenue (Transaction services, 2018) – 1,604.42 million

take rate: 0.3402% (of GMV)

Revenue total – 13,119,990 k

COGS (Payment processing fees) – 639.29 million RMB

gross margin: 60.14% (of transaction services)

COGS (Costs associated with the operation of our platform) – 2,265.96 million RMB

Overall gross margin: 77.85%

monetization methods

Online marketplace services

Under our current business model, we generate revenues primarily from online marketplace services. Our revenues from online marketplace services include revenues from online marketing services and transaction services.

Online marketing services. We provide online marketing services to allow merchants to bid for keywords that match product listings appearing in search results on our platform and advertising placements such as banners, links and logos. The placement and the price for such placement are determined through an online bidding system.

Transaction services. We charge merchants fees for transaction-related services that we provide to merchants on our platform. As part of our continued efforts to improve user experience, we reward merchants who sell high-quality products and provide superb services with preferential fee rates.

Merchandise sales

From 2015 to the first quarter of 2017, we also operated an online direct sales business under the name of “Pinhaohuo” for certain categories of merchandise such as fresh produce and other perishable products. Under this model, we acquired products from suppliers and sold them directly to buyers. During the time when we operated Pinhaohuo, we also operated our current marketplace model and completed the transition into our current business model in the first quarter of 2017. As a result, our revenues from merchandise sales have decreased substantially from 2016 to 2017, and we no longer generated such revenues after the first quarter of 2017.

Costs of online marketplace services consist primarily of payment processing fees paid to third party online payment platform, costs associated with the operation of the Group’s platform, such as bandwidths and server costs, depreciation and maintenance costs, staff costs and share-based compensation expenses, surcharges and other expenses directly attributable to the online marketplace services. Costs of merchandise sales consist of the same elements as those of online marketplace services, as well as the purchase price of merchandise, shipping and other logistics charges and write-down of inventories.

Mogu (IPO filings as of September 30, 2018)

GMV (6 months) – RMB 7.9 billion

revenue (marketing services, 6 month) – RMB 193.05 million

take rate: 2.4437%

revenue (commission revenues, 6 month) – RMB 215.65 million

take rate: 2.7297%

total revenue (6 month) – RMB 489.48 million (6.1959% of GMV)

gross margin: 68.8853%

monetization methods

Marketing services revenues. We generate revenues from marketing services by providing online marketing services, including display-based, search-based and native content-based advertisements and marketing services, to merchants and brand partners.

Commission revenues. We earn commissions from merchants on our platform when transactions are completed and settled. Such commissions are generally determined as an agreed percentage of the value of merchandise sold by merchants. We generally offer two categories of services to our merchants. We typically charge a commission rate of approximately 5% to merchants that choose our entry-level service offerings, which include basic operational support. For merchants who need fuller operational support, we offer incremental services through our prime service offerings, such as support on brand building, fashion influencer matching and deeper data analytics and insights. We generally charge a commission rate of approximately 20% to merchants that opt for our prime offerings.

Other revenues. Our other revenues primarily consist of revenues from financing solutions and other services.

Revenue Recognition

Marketing services revenues

We provide marketing services to merchants and brand partners that help them promote their products in designated areas on our platform directly or via social network platforms over particular periods of time that will then divert users back to our platform. Such services are charged at fixed prices or at prices established through our online auction system. In general, merchants and brand partners need to prepay for the marketing services. Revenue is recognized ratably over the period during which the content is displayed, or when the content or offerings are clicked or viewed by users, or when an underlying transaction is completed by a merchant.

Commission revenues

We operate our online platform for merchants to sell their merchandise to our users and also provide integrated platform-wide services. When the transactions are completed on our platform, we charge merchants commissions at their respective agreed percentage of the amount of merchandise sold by merchants. We identify that arranging for the provision of products by merchants for each successful transaction and the provision of integrated services are separate performance obligations. We apply the practical expedient that allocates the commission revenues for the integrated services to the respective day on which we have the right to invoice. We do not control the underlying merchandise provided by merchants before they are transferred to users, as we are not responsible for fulfilling the promise to provide the merchandise to users and have no inventory risk before the merchandise are transferred to the users or after the control is transferred to the users. In addition, we have no discretion in establishing prices of the merchandise provided by merchants. Commission revenues are recognized on a net basis at the point of users’ acceptance of merchandise.

Commissions are refundable if and when users return the merchandise to merchants and the refund is recognized as variable consideration. We offer refund to merchants based on percentages of estimated commissions of a specific period. We identify the refund as a performance obligation and recognize it as a contract liability. The estimations are reassessed and adjusted at the end of each reporting period.

We also offer volume refund to merchants based on the cumulative sales they generate on our platform during a certain period. Within a certain period, if the total sales generated by a merchant reaches a pre-agreed threshold, the merchant is entitled to a refund of a certain percentage of the commission paid to us. We identify the volume refund as a performance obligation and recognize it at its standalone selling price as a contractual liability. The amount of contractual liabilities involves an estimation of a merchant’s sales amount during a certain period and the related percentage to calculate the volume refund. Such estimation is reassessed and adjusted at the end of each reporting period.

Other revenues

Other revenues primarily consist of the revenues from financing solutions and other services. Financing solutions include loans to users and merchants through factoring arrangements and services to facilitate financial institutions to provide loans to merchants and users on our platform. For financing solutions to merchants and users through factoring arrangements, we record loan receivables when the cash is advanced to the users or merchants, and the service fees are recognized over the term of loans. For services to financial institutions, revenue is recognized when the fund is drawn down by the borrowers or over the financing period on a straight-line basis.

How Do E-commerces Generate Revenue? (1) – Alibaba

So, Alibaba is now a diversified tech/internet company that not only has the biggest e-commerce presence in China, but also leads the cloud computing commercialization there.

Alibaba separates its business into four categories:

    • Core commerce
    • Cloud computing
    • Digital media and entertainment
    • Innovation initiatives and others

And “Core commerce” could further be divided based on China/International, retail/wholesale, logistics and others.

      • China commerce retail
      • China commerce wholesale
      • International commerce retail
      • International commerce wholesale
      • Cainiao logistics services
      • Others

“China commerce retail” is where most of the Taobao and Tmall’s numbers are presented – $36.9 billion, two-thirds of Alibaba’s total revenue in fiscal year 2019 (ended on March 31, 2019).

The revenue is supported by the huge GMVs of these two platforms.

  • Taobao GMV (billions, RMB, fiscal 16, 17, 18, 19) – 1,877 | 2,202 | 2,689 | 3,115
  • Tmall GMV (billions, RMB, fiscal 16, 17, 18, 19) – 1,215 | 1,565 | 2,131 | 2,612

A behemoth with a combined ¥5.7 trillion GMV (or more than $800 billion).

And here is its famous Singles’ Day GMV number in 2018 – $30.8 billion on a single day.

Source: notebookcheck.com

In comparison, Amazon had a GMV of nearly $300 billion in 2018 (not officially released number, but calculated).

Amazon GMV in 2018 = 10 * Alibaba’s 2018 Singles’ Day GMV

But what is Alibaba doing with all these merchandises transacted on its platform?

The “China commerce retail” category will be the main focus of here.


To start with, here is a description of Taobao from Alibaba’s 20-F for FY18.

Consumers come to Taobao Marketplace to enjoy an engaging, personalized shopping experience, optimized by our big data analytics. Through highly relevant and engaging content and real-time updates from merchants, consumers can learn about products and new trends. They can also interact with each other and their favorite merchants and brands. With a broad offering of interactive features such as live broadcast, groups and short videos, Taobao Marketplace has become an established social commerce platform.

Taobao Marketplace is also the entry point to verticals, such as second-hand auctions, and online travel booking, which may also be accessed through their own independent mobile apps.

Merchants on Taobao Marketplace are primarily individuals and small businesses. Merchants can create storefronts and listings on Taobao Marketplace free of charge. The escrow payment services provided by Alipay are free of charge to consumers and merchants unless payment is funded through a credit product such as a credit card, in which case Alipay charges a fee to the merchant based on the related bank fees charged to Alipay. Taobao Marketplace merchants can purchase P4P and display marketing services to direct traffic to their storefronts. In addition, merchants can acquire additional traffic from third-party marketing affiliates. Taobao Marketplace merchants can also pay for advanced storefront software that helps to upgrade, decorate and manage their online storefronts.

The revenue model of our China commerce retail business is primarily performance-based and is typically set by market-based bidding systems. Revenue from this model consists primarily of customer management revenue, commissions and other revenue.

Monetization Methods

  1. Customer management. (and I will call it ads or marketing services)

Alibaba says a substantial majority of our China commerce retail revenue from customer management, which primarily consists of:

        • P4P marketing services , where merchants primarily bid for keywords through our online auction system that match product or service listings appearing in search or browser results on a cost-per-click, or CPC, basis. Whether and where the listing will be displayed, and the corresponding prices for such display are determined by the algorithm of Alibaba’s online auction system based on a number of factors with various weights and through a market-based bidding mechanism.
        • Display marketing services , where merchants bid for display positions at fixed prices or prices established by a market-based bidding system on a cost-per-thousand impression, or CPM, basis.In addition to the above-mentioned P4P marketing services and display marketing services directly provided on our marketplaces, Alibaba also provides such services through collaboration with other third-party marketing affiliates. These third parties are primarily third-party online media, such as search engines, news feeds and video entertainment websites. These third-party online media enter into agreements with Alibaba to connect their designated online resources to our online auction system so that the merchants’ listings or other marketing information can be displayed on those third-party online media resources. Revenue from P4P and display marketing services provided through third-party marketing affiliates represented 3%, 3% and 2% of Alibaba’s total revenue in fiscal years 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively.
        • Taobaoke program , where Alibaba collaborate with shopping guide platforms, medium- and small-sized websites, individuals and other third parties, collectively “Taobaokes,” to offer marketing services. Taobaokes display the marketing information of merchants on their media which facilitate our merchants to market and transact. Merchants pay commissions to such Taobaokes based on a percentage of transaction value generated from users under the Taobaoke program. Commissions on Taobaoke are set by the merchants. Revenue from the Taobaoke program represented 3%, 3% and 3% of Alibaba’s total revenue in fiscal years 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively.
  1. Commissions on transactions. In addition to purchasing customer management services, merchants also pay a commission based on a percentage of transaction value generated on Tmall and certain other marketplaces. The commission percentages typically range from 0.3% to 5.0% depending on the product category.Commission revenue increased by 37% from RMB34,066 million in fiscal year 2017 to RMB46,525 million (US$7,417 million) in fiscal year 2018, primarily due to the strong growth in physical goods GMV on Tmall.
  2. Other. Other revenue from our China commerce retail is primarily generated by our New Retail business, mainly Intime, Tmall Imports and Hema, and primarily consists of revenue from product sales, commissions on transactions and software service fees.

Let’s do some calculation:

2018

    • revenue (customer management) – 114,285 million RMB
      • take rate: 2.3710% (of Taobao + Tmall GMV)
    • revenue (commission) – 46,525 million RMB
      • take rate: 2.1832% (of Tmall GMV)

2019

    • revenue (customer management) – 145,684 million RMB
      • take rate: 2.5438% (of Taobao + Tmall GMV)
    • revenue (commission) – 61,847 million RMB
      • take rate: 2.3678% (of Tmall GMV)

The higher take rates are generally good – it shows Alibaba’s market power and the value of its platform.

However, it also means selling on Alibaba’s platforms is becoming more expensive.

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that when people use e-commerce to do searches, it’s not good to search engines like Baidu.

It is the same across China and US, where Amazon is growing its ads revenue in a market Google and Facebook dominate.

Actually, the value of Alibaba blocking Baidu’s search on Taobao pages in 2008 is a hundreds-of-billion-dollar action. (this didn’t happen in the US)

Diversification From Smartphones: Services For Apple, IoTs For Xiaomi

It has been a well-known fact that the global smartphone market is maturing and the shipment volume has found its turn.

The decline is real and accelerating.

 …first quarter of 2019 (1Q19) with shipment volumes down 6.6% year over year…

Smartphone vendors shipped a total of 310.8 million units in 1Q19, which marked the sixth consecutive quarter of decline. In 2018, smartphone shipments dropped 4.1% over 2017, which was inclusive of a first quarter that was down 3.5% – just half of what the market experienced in 1Q19.

International Data Corporation (IDC) April 30, 2019

Image result for global smartphone shipment


While top performers are still trying to grab market shares (some go for higher ASP targeting market shares in terms of revenue; others go for value targeting market shares in terms of shipments), they have designed their way to grow upon/out of smartphones.

Apple will go for services. [Read more from a previous post]

Meanwhile, Xiaomi, long being tagged as “the Apple of China”, is aiming the IoTs.

I would like to say the IoT focus is making Xiaomi more unique than its phone business.

As of March 2018, we (Xiaomi) had over 100 million connected devices (excluding smartphones and laptops)

…the largest consumer IoT platform globally according to iResearch

Xiaomi Corporation prospectus

And the segment grows fast in throughout 2018, and still maintained 56.5% growth rate in 2019 Q1.

Source: Xiaomi filings

Some of its items have risen fast into the go-to choice in those categories, such as Mi Air Purifier, Mi Band, etc.

Source: venturebeat.com

In November 2018, Xiaomi announced a strategic partnership with IKEA. IKEA’s full range of smart lighting products will be connected to Xiaomi’s IoT platform starting this December in China.

In January 2019, Xiaomi announced taking a 0.48% stake in TV manufacturer TCL, deepening an existing alliance that saw the two work together to integrate Xiaomi’s operating system into TCL products. [Techcrunch]

Another number – MIUI MAU is constantly adding ~17-19 million each quarter.

17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1
MIUI MAU (millions) 138.3 146.0 156.5 170.8 190.0 206.9 224.4 242.1 260.9
incremental (millions) 7.7 10.5 14.3 19.2 16.9 17.5 17.7 18.8

Overall speaking, I think the IoT revenue should be around 30% for 2019 and may stay between 35-40% in the future.


At the same time, geographically speaking, Xiaomi is one of those companies that are benefitted the most from India’s growth.

Buildings On The Bund (Waitan), Shanghai (6)

Block Seven

No. 16 – Bank of Taiwan Building | 台湾银行大楼 (上海)

Built in 1927.

Past: Bank of Taiwan (founded in 1899 by the Bank of Taiwan to promote trade between Taiwan, the Japanese Empire, and the rest of Asia; purchased the building from HSBC)

Now: China Merchants Bank

In-between: 中国农民银行(台湾),市工艺品进出口公司(改名工艺大楼)

No. 17 – North China Daily News Building | 字林大楼

Rebuilt and opened in in 1924.

Past: The North China Daily News, first English-language newspaper to be published in Shanghai

Now: AIA Group, a subsidiary of American International Group

In-between: American Asiatic Underwriters (forerunner of AIG), Tairiku Shimpō (大陆新报, a Japanese newspaper), various Chinese government offices

No. 18 – Chartered Bank Building | 渣打(麦加利)银行大楼

Built in 1923

Past: Standard Chartered Bank

Now: high-end restaurants including Hakkasan, Mr & Mrs Bund, L’ATELIER de Joël Robuchon, Ultraviolet by Paul Pairet (three-Michelin-stars), Ginza Onodera

In-between: 房管局(改名春江大楼),上海家用纺织品进出口公司,上海市机电设备总公司, Chipolbrok chinese-polish shipping company (the oldest Chinese deep-sea shipowner and the first enterprise with foreign capital in the P.R.C),上海水产总公司

Buildings On The Bund (Waitan), Shanghai (5)

Block Six

No. 14 – Bank of Communications Building | 交通银行大楼

Rebuilt in 1948.

Past: Bank of Communications (took over from Deutsch-Asiatische Bank in in 1919; Deutsch-Asiatische Bank 德华银行 was formed with the participation of Deutsche Bank)

Now: 上海市总工会

No. 15 – Russo-Chinese Bank Building | 上海华俄道胜银行大楼

Built in 1902.

Past: Russo-Chinese Bank

Now: 上海黄金交易所,中国外汇交易中心,全国银行间同业拆借中心

In-between: In 1926 the bank went bankrupt and was purchased by the newly founded Central Bank of China (Taiwan)

Buildings On The Bund (Waitan), Shanghai (4)

Block Five

No. 12 – The HSBC Building | 汇丰银行大楼

Built in 1923, the largest bank building in the Far East at that time

Past: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC, purchased No. 12 in 1874, then No. 10 & 11 in 1912)

Now: Shanghai Pudong Development Bank

In-between: Japanese Yokohama Specie Bank, Shanghai Municipal Government (市政府)

No. 13 – The Customs House | 海关大楼

Built in 1927, the clock and bell was built in England and in imitation of Big Ben; it has the largest clock in Asia

Originally opened in 1847. Currently the fourth rebuilt.

A Roundup of Recent E-commerce IPOs

From Mogujie (NYSE: MOGU) to Ruhan (NASDAQ: RUHN) to Yunji (NASDAQ: YJ), a series of second-tier (in terms of size at least) Chinese e-commerce companies has filed with SEC and raised $66.5 million, $125 million, $121 million respectively (excluding any over-allotment option).

The interests were stirred by (at least) the capital market success of Pinduoduo.

In its IPO, Pinduoduo was valued at $23.8 billion including all outstanding share options, compared with a valuation of $15 billion following a funding round in April, 2018. (Reuters)

users comparison at PDD’s IPO vs. Taobao, JD | Source: Bloomberg, Jiguang

Following the IPO in July last year, Pinduoduo raised another $1,375 million in February at $25 per ADS (IPO priced at $19 for ~$1.6 billion).


However, it seems that only Pinduoduo could maintain a high valuation.

Partially due to a bad timing, Mogu, valued at $3 billion in 2016 and seeking a valuation of $4 billion in early 2018, reduced its target and was priced at the lower end for $1.3 billion. The previous valuation was derived from a merger tho.

Mogu Inc. ended its New York debut at the same price as its initial public offering $14, after dipping as much as 15% during the day. [Caixing]

As of May 17, 2019, Mogu closed at $5.4 per ADS, down more than 61% from the IPO price of $14.

Ruhan, or Ruhhn, slipped 37% below its IPO price on the first day of trading following a $125 million NASDAQ offering. [AVCJ]

As of May 17, 2019, it closed at $4.25 per ADS, down more than 66% from the IPO price of $12.5.

Yunji, debuted this month, has maintained $0.01 above its IPO price of $11 as of May 17, 2019. Yunji’s valuation is more supported by its revenue (EV/revenue multiple is close to 1).


And a roundup of multiples at IPO, using an exchange ratio of 6.8

EV/GMV EV/Revenue
PDD 0.28 10.19
MOGU 0.43 7.06
RUHN 2.34 5.72
YJ 0.56 0.98

 

Buildings On The Bund (Waitan), Shanghai (3)

Block Four

No. 7 – Great Northern Telegraph Building | 大北电报公司大楼

Rebuilt in 1907.

Past: Danish Great Northern Telegraph Company, the earliest commercial telegraph services provider in China

Now: Bangkok Bank, the largest commercial banks in Thailand (since 1995)

In-between: Commercial Bank of China (No.6 on the Bund), 长江航运管理局 (later split into 长江航务管理局 and 长江轮船总公司, more on the reformation)

No. 9 –  China Shipping Merchant Company | 轮船招商局

Built in 1901.

Past: China Shipping Merchant Company (bought in 1891)

Now: China Merchants Group (parent group of companies including China Merchants Bank)