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Singapore not a Lee empire?

Lee Hsien Loong steps down after 20 years (2004-2024) serving as the PM of Singapore. [3rd longest after Turkey and Russia (?); Putin had 8+12 years and started another 6-year term so 26 years at the end of current term]

Singapore had a Lee leader for 45 of its 59 years of nationhood. The new PM Wong won’t have a Lee leader waiting after him.

From my understanding, there is not much political freedom even though Singapore is a democracy.

Hope it may advance / experiment new norm for overseas Chinese.

I recently read a book on Qing dynasty. People’s life sounds a bit pathetic, although from population growth or national wealth perspective it looked very strong.

I don’t believe Chinese society always needs a strictly controlled system, which had been the case for thousands of years.

Eventually, there should be new form of civilization structure that’s very different from now.

New tariff

Electric vehicle tariff sounds preventative. No Chinese car companies are selling mainstream in the US. 100% tariff is more political and sounds tough to voters maybe.

Batteries tariff is around 25%, which is about the gross profit margin of CATL. So it makes CATL export (if at the same price) 0% gross margin.

Are China internet companies valuable from a US perspective?

Before getting into financials, some may ask the question of “why bother”?

My thoughts below:

 

1/ These companies are customers of other global companies. 

e.g. gaming companies or PDD shall purchase ads on Meta & Google

e.g. internet companies shall purchase general server chips like Intel, AMD.

 

2/ These companies serve a market that US firms are not directly serving

Debatable. But the current reality is that Chinese internet space is mostly Chinese companies.

 

3/ Sanctions?

I view it less likely than before. US and China are trying to stablize ties.

It’s hard to have direct monetary impacts as they mostly serve the domestic market. What to gain from more sanctions?

Some companies are very careful overseas and do comply with local laws, e.g. Tencent’s subsidiary Supercell did pull out of Russia market.

 

4/ Domestic regulations?

Less likely in the near-term. Most previous restrictions are no longer there. Didi back to app stores, some after-school education is back, draft on more game regulation is stopped.

Weak macro protects these companies. Less disruption is good.

 


Plus, they do have growth, have become leaner, and are not expensive.

China data center left behind?

Equinix capex for 2024 is ~$3bn

Digital Reality capex for 2024 is close to $3bn

The largest independent data center GDS operator only has rmb 6.5bn (less than $1bn) capex for 2024, of which rmb 4bn is outside of mainland China.

GPU shortage is the key, which limits the development and usage of AI.

Overall weak demand in China is also the key, as main internet companies need a surge in net income or cash flow first to support a surge in capex.

2025/26 could be interesting. If US feels the lead in AI is firm, and the H800 etc. is more of a legacy chip, and Huawei develops better AI chips, it doesn’t hurt to sell some Nvidia chips to Chinese customers.


$EQIX capex guide


$DLR capex guide

 

 

Starbucks China positioning

Personal experience:

It was cool to hold a Starbucks drink in hand, but less so in recent years.

The cool factor is diluted with %Arabica (82 stores), Blue Bottle (5 stores), and Peet’s (over 200 stores).

Blue Bottle can drive me to a shopping mall that wasn’t on my plan. Starbucks has less effect these days.

I rarely buy Luckin coffee, unless it’s a hit product like Moutai coffee. Mostm Luckin items don’t taste like coffee but more like sugar drinks to me.

I have tried other domestic brands like M Stand (350 stores). I think that tastes more on par with Starbucks.

Manner (1000 stores) is not on par with Starbucks, but the minimalist style looks appealing than Luckin for certain customers.

Other international brands like Tim’s (912 stores) is not a bad choice. But the store is less sophisticated than Starbucks (lack of charging).


In terms of drinks, I think Starbucks is less differentiated among premium brands like %arabica, Blue Bottle, Peet’s.

In terms of services, Starbucks is differentiated with charging outlets. And I like the option of ordering without a phone, although I mostly order on phone.

In terms of branding, it’s less “cool” compared with %Arabica and Blue Bottle, unless it’s a Starbucks Reserve coffee.

I think Starbucks’ problem in China is more of a positioning problem. How it can target different segments with a single brand? Different customers want different things and they are just too different in China.

  • too mainstream to be premium / high-end
  • too expensive for routine customers in the real mass market (incl. lower tier cities) in the long run

I am sure in some cities, Starbucks shall still enjoy a “cool” factor for some time, but can fade over the years if other foreign brands enter.


%Arabica Shanghai

 

Blue Bottle Shanghai

Growing capital expenditure for AI firms (MSFT + GOOGL + META => $150bn)

MSFT capex saw 41% increase in CY2023 and 79% increase in the first quarter of 2024. And MSFT expects material sequential increase in capex, which could mean 50-60% increase yoy.

Alphabet capex saw 2% increase in 2023 and 91% increase in the first quarter of 2024. The company expects similar amounts in the following quarters, which points to 50% yoy increase in 2024 capex.

Meta capex saw 12% decline in 2023 and 5% decline in 2024q1, but the company upgrades capex guidance for 2024 to be $35-40bn, which indicates a 33% yoy increase at midpoint.

Adding the 3 above would be $150bn combined capex already, up from ~$100bn in 2023 for those three.

Chinese companies share-based compensation (3)

See previous

Chinese companies share-based compensation (1)

Chinese companies share-based compensation (2)

 

Tencent (HK.700)

2023

FCF: 167 bn rmb (company defined)

SBC: 21 bn rmb, or 12.6% of FCF

Note: FCF significantly improved, while buyback is doubling SBC

 

Meituan (HK.3690)

2023

FCF: 33.6 bn rmb (op. cf minus purchases of pp&E)

SBC: 8.4 bn rmb, or 25% of FCF

Note: FCF significantly improved; buyback starting in 2024

US homebuilders in 2008

What did US homebuilders do in 2008? Residential property market was really bad.

D.R. Horton revenue dropped by 41% yoy in 2008; loss of $2.6bn (more than 2x of 2006 net income) was incurred. Book value was only $2.8bn at 2008 YE.

But D.R. Horton maintained positive cash flows, scaling back expansion and selling inventories.

D.R. Horton started to pay down some debt in 2007 and did so in 2008 as well. It continued to do so until 2011. In 2012, it started to take on more debt.

Similarly for Lennar – revenue dropped 55% yoy in 2008 and incurred loss of $1.1bn. Book value was $2.6bn at 2008 YE.

It maintained positive operating cash flow, reducing supply (deliveries dropped 68% from 2006), pausing expansion and selling inventories.

It didn’t take new debts, but focusing on paying back.

 

 

Is Chipotle a robot company that happens to make chipotle?

Not to say these systems are fantastic; but at least you need to experiment first. Investors love stories.

Robots could do fries Chippy robot (by Miso Robotics)

Robots could peel and cut avocados Autocado (by Vebu)

Robots could prepare the bowl/salad (by Hyphen)

 

Problems?

  • cleaning
  • items prepared may not be as good as humans for now
  • lack of customer relationship (I still like it when your local coffee shop people can remember your name)
  • if broke down, hard to replace? unless you have a spare machine nearby… but in every city?
  • less job growth for society
  • etc.