Category: personal_noteS

Random action’s profound impact

A random thought while drying my hair –

Whether your hair (bangs) goes left or right is probably determined by which hand you use to hold the hairdryer in the first place / mostly of the time.

Actually, for me at least, I never change that choice of hand.

The more I use one hand, the easier to use that hand again. I feel awkward to use the other hand.

Thus that (always using the same hand) will pretty much determine how my hair parts.

Notes of Paul Tudor Jones (PTJ) on AI bubbles

Paul Tudor Jones on the AI Bubble Debate by Bloomberg

The only way to reduce debt to GDP is to have obviously nominal growth exceed your interest rate.

– Paul Tudor Jones

Here are notes for Paul’s interview and my opinions

  • Today feels like Oct 1999, but if this is a bubble, it’s a small one. Past bubbles ran 400–600%. Nasdaq is “only” ~200% off the bottom. Blow-off possible, not inevitable. [I agree; see my previous post Is it like internet bubble? in October]
  • Key bull case: rates. If Fed funds fall toward ~2.25–2.75%, that’s powerful fuel for equities. Markets look 6–9 months ahead, not at today’s data. [Sure]
  • Difference vs 1999: companies are profitable. [I don’t agree; I believe AI model companies like OpenAI etc. are losing a lot of money; let’s see when they publish numbers for IPOs]
  • Risk isn’t traditional leverage like in margin accounts — it’s derivative leverage: options, leveraged ETFs (up 250% from 2022 bottom), and trader-driven equity flows. [Very real]
  • Jones stays a trend follower. Recently, gold & silver > Bitcoin despite massive crypto inflows. He now expects precious metals to outperform crypto into year-end. [I wouldn’t agree back then; but I would be very wrong, so far]
  • Bond vigilantes were held in back; money debasement happened in gold and bitcoin instead. [True]
  • Biggest risk: concentration everywhere — stocks, investors, and policy power. [Agree]
  • Bottom line: short-term cautious, but Paul believes markets can be substantially higher by year-end. Likely long: Nasdaq. Short: Bonds.

Sea change?

1/ FSD approval in China.

I have seen various posts on Chinese social medias that Tesla FSD is being updated in China. Not many news mentions though. This was previewed by Elon Musk back in Nov 2025 and recently in Davos.

2/ TikTok US deal finalized

3/ Trump Administration Pushes Out Key Officials Focused on China Tech Threat – WSJ

4/ Medtronic and Mindray North America broaden strategic partnership

5/ H200 China approval after US approval

6/ BYD and ExxonMobil signed a long-term strategic cooperation memorandum on 26 January

 

—

Edit:

Jensen Huang on Jan 29 said H200 has yet to be approved in China.

Notes on JPY strength

Coordinated intervention

Reports that the New York Fed did “rate checks” (often interpreted as a potential prelude to intervention) plus Japan officials stressing coordination with the U.S. put the market on alert.

Previous examples

In March 2011, the G7 announced concerted intervention after extreme yen volatility following Japan’s earthquake.

What was happening in 2011?

Markets anticipated Japanese insurers and investors would bring money back to Japan to pay claims and fund rebuilding.

What’s happening now and why US wants a stronger yen now?

Excess volatility and disorderly FX moves can harm economic/financial stability

Japan’s finance minister has said the U.S. Treasury secretary shared concerns about “one-sided depreciation” of the yen, which signals the U.S. doesn’t want to be seen as tolerating a move that could be framed as giving Japan an unfair export boost.

A weak yen can worsen import-cost inflation and political stress in Japan.

Some exit from Japan might cause the temporary yen weakness (e.g. China selling).

 

 

Consumption is a bigger component of China’s GDP than fixed investments

China’s fixed investments in past 5 years

China reported 社会消费品零售总额 Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods (a narrower concept than consumption) is 501,202 亿元 in 2025, up 3.7% yoy.

China reported 社会消费品零售总额 is 487,895 亿元 in 2024.

From 2020 to 2025, fixed investments % of GDP has lowed from over 50% to 35%.

Meanwhile, 社会消费品零售总额 finally surpassed fixed investments in absolute amount in 2025, by a think margin.

Also see previous post on consumption: When we are saying China needs to boost household consumption

China has a large consumer market but where is growth

Online physical goods consumption cagr is almost 0% from 2023-25. [reported 6.5% and 5.2% growth in 2024 and 2025]

2023年，实物商品网上零售额130174亿元

2024年，实物商品网上零售额130816亿元

2025年，实物商品网上零售额130923亿元

Overall e-commerce growth, which is ~2% cagr 2023-25. [reported 7.2% and 8.6% growth in 2024 and 2025]

2025年，全国网上零售额159722亿元

2023年，全国网上零售额154264亿元

Ex-auto consumption growth is 3.3% cagr 2023-25. [reported 3.8% and 4.4% growth in 2024 and 2025]

2025年，除汽车以外的消费品零售额451413亿元

2023年，除汽车以外的消费品零售额422881亿元

Accumulated CPI is 0.5% from end of 2022 to end of 2025 (36 month).

 

Assessing 2025 predictions – CICC overseas

1/ US equity

S&P ended at 6,845.50, with ~18% total return in 2025, or doubling CICC’s return prediction.

我们测算，在乐观预期 10%盈利增长的驱动下，标普 500 或从当前的 5800 上涨 8~10%至 6200~6400 点左右。

– CICC Nov 2024

2/ US treasury

In 2025, US 10yr treasury is rarely below 4%; ended ~25bps higher than CICC prediction.

10 年美债利率合理中枢为 3.8-4%

– CICC Nov 2024

3/ US dollar

In 2025, US dollar index is rarely above 100 after Apr tariff announcement, lower than CICC prediction.

我们测算的中枢为 102-106

– CICC Nov 2024

4/ Copper & Oil

Oil declined in 2025, but copper is up 50%.

大宗中性偏多，等待催化剂。铜的需求更多与中国相关，油则更多受地缘和供给影响。从中美信用周期角度，在目前点位进一步看空意义不大，但向上动力和时间目前仍不明朗，需要等待催化剂。

– CICC Nov 2024

 

5/ Gold

Gold is extremely strong, ending 2025 with near $4,300 to over $4,400 per ounce, a lot higher than CICC prediction

黄金短期中性。黄金已经超出我们基于实际利率和美元的基本面模型测算可支撑的 2400-2600 美元/盎司。但地缘局势、央行购金和局部“去美元”需求带来了额外的风险溢价。我们测算，俄乌局势以来溢价中枢上行至 100-200
美元。长期依然可以作为不确定性对冲，但短期我们建议中性。

– CICC Nov 2024