China Observation – Page 6

Random thought on China’s role in US debt

Historically, China was a big buyer and still a big holder of US gov debt, which to some extent led to the ultra-low interest rate environment.

Nowadays, China is still helping keep the US interest rate low, indirectly. I think by not providing good return opportunities, China is forcing money to go to other places, indirectly providing more money (with low return alternative) in the global market for the US gov.

It’s not just impacting foreign capital interested in China, but Chinese money as well.

Alternatively, if China has attractive opportunities all over the place, it will compete for global money one way or another.

China is back with good policies. What’s next?

China’s stock market is back. Everyone knows.

China rolled out policies to help its stock market & economy. This makes sense.

What are the missing parts?

Some might say geopolitical tension is still an unsolved issue.

I won’t disagree. But I feel it’s not as extreme as before.

Some may say a deeper structural reform.

Fair; but in short term this might not change.

What I think is missing (and China can start to think in short term) is how China can better participate & even organize global affairs & how the world economy can grow better with a stronger China.

Historically, China didn’t excel on this. During times when its economy was leading the world, it didn’t take much care of the world. It could give stuff to nearby countries; it could invent and other can learn; however, it didn’t actively “organize the world”.

A strong economy that can’t lead is a loss to the world, I think.

How to lead? How to make other countries live better as China is a bigger part of global GDP? Not by giving free money but in a healthy, organic way.

That’s the question I haven’t seen much discussion.

100% tariff on China-made electric vehicles.. so what

Nio’s sub brand Onvo just announced its price today.

Without battery, price is 150k rmb, or ~$20k.

If doubling the price due to tariff to $40k, that is still competitive in the US.

Model 3, ID.4 is around that price range in the US (excl. credit).

If counting US gov subsidy, that’s $7.5k price advantage for US-made EV. But this subsidy won’t be here forever.

The point is, even with 100% tariff, it’s not entirely unaffordable for Chinese EV brands.

China’s over-consumption

Over-consumption is ingrained in Chinese culture.

When Chinese people invite other to dinner, they usually over-order to show hospitality. This is over-consumption.

When Chinese people drink liquor on the dinner table, they can push beyond their bodies’ alcohol limit – drinking beyond the limit is usually seen as sincerity and deep friendship. This is over-consumption.

When Chinese people send gifts to each other during holidays, they often send things that are higher end then they consume. This is over-consumption.

The concept of “over-consumption” doesn’t mean it’s not necessary; indeed, those can be seen as “normal” rather than “over-consumption” for most Chinese. It’s only when you compare those consumption levels to countries like US, you can say it’s above the needed/common level.

If Chinese people are going to normalize their consumptions, there can be an oversupply in those categories.

Why overcapacity is prevalent in China

Thinking about this question, here are five potential answers.

1/ For the older generations, shortages are deeply rooted in their memory, so they dislike the idea that anything might be in short supply.

2/ The required return is too low. Many experienced poverty in their youth, therefore lots of effort for little money is still attractive.

3/ The local governments want to create local jobs and boast about industrial upgrades, with banks being the main enablers. When every local government invest in a similar direction at the same time, it’s hard to control and estimate the entire capacity.

4/ For top party members, abundance of all sorts of goods is a sign of victory for socialism and communism.

5/ China is preparing for war. Many capacity will shut down if at war.

China’s soccer teams and their sponsors

It might not be that surprising, but many sponsors of major China local (provincial) soccer clubs in the Chinese Super League didn’t do well after naming the team.

Dalian Wanda and Dalian Shide were the names for Dalian’s soccer club. Dalian is only a city in Liaoning, but Dalian Shide was a strong team in the Chinese Super League. Dalian Aerbin is another club in Liaoning; the boss tried to acquire Dalian Shide.

More people might have heard about Evergrande. Evergrande purchased Guangzhou soccer club in 2010. Guangzhou Evergrande won seven consecutive Chinese Super League titles from 2011 to 2017.

Similar stories could be found for teams across cities/provinces, e.g. Jiangsu, Beijing, Shanghai, etc.

I am not sure if this is common globally. I can think about FTX, which sponsored the Mercedes F1 team and Golden State Warriors. But it’s not something consistently happening on the global stage.

Maybe it’s due to the business model. Property developers were very profitable and can benefit from broader audience with the clubs’ naming. Usually male watch those soccer matches more often, and those who have time and money to watch sports could be wealthier and thus homebuyers.

Liquor (Baijiu) consumption in China

I came across this number today: 6.29 billion liter of Baijiu (a traditional Chinese liquor) was produced in 2023.

I am wondering how to make sense of this.

1 liter = ~0.9kg or 18 liang (两, a traditional Chinese measurement)

6.29 billion liter = 4.5 liter per person, or 81 liang

So if all produced were consumed, it’s 81 liang per person per year, or 1.5 liang per week.

If you assume children (250mn below 15) and many women don’t drink Baijiu that much, it could 3 liang per adult male per week.

It sounds like a pretty high number. One typically won’t drink 3 liang if eat at home. It’s usually for dinning out with business or other occasions.

Considering how occasions like this would decrease over time – younger generation might prefer a different life style, or businesses could be done without being drunk at dinners, it’s hard not to question about how much Baijiu China needs to consume each year.

I won’t be surprised if the volume can be down 1/3 or 1/2 from here in decades, assuming no export or store of value etc.

Search’s problem in China

Search is a two side product.

You need to provide that “10 blue links” to serve consumers. Hopefully consumers can find what they need (have the answer) as fast as they can (no need to go to the next 10 search results).

You also need to serve the advertisers to market or grow their business.

Baidu seems to be challenged in both ways.

Sometimes, the most up-to-date information (with details) is found in Xiaohongshu and Douyin, where users upload tons of posts and videos. User-generated content can carry much more info than official news, as official news is well controlled by gov in China. There are basically not news other than official news.

For business owners, Baidu doesn’t offer much growth. Merchants shall spend more on e-commerce sites directly (which was mainly search-driven before recommendation rose). Douyin and Xiaohongshu may help “create the desire to buy” that search can’t. Some services can be banned from making advertisement (like after-school education). For some other businesses (toB etc.) – Moutai (liquor) is a more efficient sales spending. More importantly, search results are mostly webpages; but webpages are less useful in China vs. the US – a Weibo Account and a WeChat Public Account is more useful.

This actually leads to another interesting thing – I feel independent websites are dying in China. They are not important at all. Maybe China is preferring mobile over PC due to real name, and mobile phone number is the easiest way to fulfill that requirements, but websites don’t necessarily need a mobile phone number. This topic should be explored more.

Living space in China vs. developed countries

According to the China Population Census Yearbook 2020, China has 462 million households, with average area of 111 sqm per household and 41.76 sqm per person. Average room per household is 3.2 and average room per person is 1.2.

Average space per capital of 41.76 sqm is not a small number.

To compare, I asked ChatGPT for other countries’ numbers – 40-45 is quite the average. Only US, Canada and Australia are meaningfully above that number.