M1 vs M2 gap in China

Back in 2016 and 2017, M1 growth was meaningfully faster than M2 growth in China, which typically indicates a high willingness to spend or invest in the economy.

That is a bullish sign.

On the contrary, if M1 growth is below M2 growth by a wide margin, it usually indicates people would rather save more than spend or invest.

That negative gap was deepening throughout 2024 till the famous 924 stimulus.

Using revised M1 growth rate, the negative gap was about -5% at the beginning of 2024 and about -10% in Sep 2024.

That negative gap shrunk to about -1% in Sep 2025 and about -3% in Feb 2026.

Actually, looking at M2 growth alone might give you a glimpse of China’s economy pulse and sentiment.

 

Previous middle-east war length

1991 Gulf War

The actual combat phase of the 1991 Gulf War lasted about 43 days.

Air war began: January 17, 1991 (Operation Desert Storm started) Ground war began: February 24, 1991 Ceasefire / fighting stopped: February 28, 1991

So there are two common ways to measure it:

Full active fighting period: January 17 to February 28, 1991 = 43 days

Ground combat only: February 24 to February 28, 1991 = about 100 hours / 4 days

2001 Afghanistan War

Start: October 7, 2001

Initial fighting end: Early December 2001 — Kandahar fell / the Taliban regime effectively collapsed, which is the more complete endpoint for the initial regime-toppling campaign. 

About 2 month.

2003 Iraq war

Main invasion / conventional fighting phase, it began on March 20, 2003 and was largely completed by May 1, 2003, when the U.S. declared major combat over.

About 42 days.

All these actions are approved by US Congress so that US can use force for over 60 days.

Powell’s lesson on oil supply shock

Fed is hard to react to oil supply shock.

1/ Fed is designed to manage demand. It cannot produce more oil or open shipping lanes. Historically, the Fed “looks through” supply shocks unless they start to bleed into the broader economy (secondary effects / expectation for inflation rises).

2/ Energy shocks often spike and subside relatively quickly. However, Fed policies take months or even years to fully permeate the economy. Fed would be slowing down the economy exactly when it might be trying to recover from the high energy costs.

“By the time the effects of a tightening in monetary policy take effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone, and you’re weighing on the economy at a time when it’s not appropriate.”

88% drop in new household mortgage Jan-Feb 2026 vs 2021

In the first two month of 2026, China households increased mid-to-long-term borrowing by 165.4 bn rmb, vs 1356.1 bn rmb in the first two month of 2021.

That is a decrease of 88%.

Households’ new mid-to-long-term borrowing is mostly associated with mortgages / housing purchases.

Details below.


Feb 2026 – PBOC

前两个月人民币贷款增加5.61万亿元。分部门看,住户贷款减少1942亿元,其中,短期贷款减少3596亿元,中长期贷款增加1654亿元;

Feb 2021 – PBOC

2月份人民币贷款增加1.36万亿元,同比多增4529亿元。分部门看,住户贷款增加1421亿元,其中,短期贷款减少2691亿元,中长期贷款增加4113亿元

Jan 2021 – PBOC

1月份人民币贷款增加3.58万亿元,同比多增2252亿元。分部门看,住户贷款增加1.27万亿元,其中,短期贷款增加3278亿元,中长期贷款增加9448亿元

China long-term real interest rate dips to 0.5% in Feb driven by higher CPI, vs 1.75% in US

China long-term real interest rate dips to 0.5% in Feb vs 1.6% in Jan and avg of 1.7% in 2025, driven by higher CPI.

China long-term real interest rate is calculated by 10-year CGB yield ~1.81% in Feb minus Feb CPI of 1.3%.

Avg. long-term real interest rate of 1.7% in 2025 is calculated by averaging monthly LT real interest rate using the same method.

vs. US 10-Year Real Interest Rate of 1.75% in Feb.

China CPI is the strongest in years

Little inflation is a sign of weak economy, which China has been criticized for past few year.

That has changed.

China’s past 3-month core CPI (excl. food and energy) is the best in years, after February core CPI of 0.7% MoM.

The yoy number of 1.8% in Feb is also the highest in years – even higher than 1H of 2021.

Chinese policymakers kept their annual consumer inflation target steady at “around 2%” for 2026. Although China hasn’t seen 2% CPI for 3 years since Jan 2023, 2026 looks to be closer.

China: dominating renewable additional, but biggest oil net importer

Despite that

1/ Solar is now the dominant form of global capacity additions, comprising 60% of new capacity in 2024

2/ China is a renewable energy juggernaut: it now accounts for 50%-60% of all global new renewable capacity additions.

3/ Most renewable supply chains go through China.

It doesn’t change the fact that China is a big (and biggest) and growing net importer of oil. In 2024, China imported about 11.1 million barrels/day of crude oil.

 

Consumption is a bigger component of China’s GDP than fixed investments

China’s fixed investments in past 5 years

China reported 社会消费品零售总额 Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods (a narrower concept than consumption) is 501,202 亿元 in 2025, up 3.7% yoy.

China reported 社会消费品零售总额 is 487,895 亿元 in 2024.

From 2020 to 2025, fixed investments % of GDP has lowed from over 50% to 35%.

Meanwhile, 社会消费品零售总额 finally surpassed fixed investments in absolute amount in 2025, by a think margin.


Also see previous post on consumption: When we are saying China needs to boost household consumption

China has a large consumer market but where is growth

Online physical goods consumption cagr is almost 0% from 2023-25. [reported 6.5% and 5.2% growth in 2024 and 2025]

2023年,实物商品网上零售额130174亿元

2024年,实物商品网上零售额130816亿元

2025年,实物商品网上零售额130923亿元


Overall e-commerce growth, which is ~2% cagr 2023-25. [reported 7.2% and 8.6% growth in 2024 and 2025]

2025年,全国网上零售额159722亿元

2023年,全国网上零售额154264亿元


Ex-auto consumption growth is 3.3% cagr 2023-25. [reported 3.8% and 4.4% growth in 2024 and 2025]

2025年,除汽车以外的消费品零售额451413亿元

2023年,除汽车以外的消费品零售额422881亿元


Accumulated CPI is 0.5% from end of 2022 to end of 2025 (36 month).

 

Popmart, holidays and 犒赏经济

Recently, 犒赏经济 has become a hot topic in China. The related articles try to show resilience in consumption and suggest a way to lift consumption.

While I agree with the necessity of this concept, as consumption in China needs to upgrade to “quality consumption” as some may say, I think 犒赏经济 is also trying to avoid some other key issues.

1/ key examples of 犒赏经济 are also lipstick effect.

Usually these articles argue that the rise in blind box toy sale like Popmart is a form of 犒赏经济.

However, if you think about it, Popmart toy is also like high-end brand lipsticks – people are replacing large item luxury purchases (handbags etc.) with smaller items ($20).

The desire to buy luxury products still exist during a bad economy, but people choose to buy stuff that have less impact on their financials.

One common use case of Popmart toy is to attach it to luxury handbags. Adding the “attachment” makes people feel that the handbag is “new” , thus somehow replacing the need to buy a new one.

Other examples of 犒赏经济 can also be lipstick effect.

Buying a nice dessert on the way back home? That’s a replacement for a much more expensive dinner out.

2/ 犒赏经济 tolerates other negative effects on overall consumption like stress or off-times.

Some part of the 犒赏经济 is not to celebrate in my opinion.

The mental stress is usually mentioned as a cause of rise in 犒赏经济, but is that a good thing? Are economists going to argue that in order to drive 犒赏经济, more people need to feel the stress?

Plus, these articles avoided discussions of long working hours and short holidays.

Long working hours is limiting dinner consumption and other 夜间经济.

In most companies in China, young people only get 5 days of annual leave per years. In additional, many companies will ask why you take a leave, and there is no such thing as getting paid for unused leaves. I bet many European people would say that like hundreds of years ago.

In 1936, France introduced law for 2 weeks of paid leave for all workers. This is on top of 9 days of national holiday at that time. The 2 weeks was further raised to 3 weeks in 1956, to 4 weeks in 1969, and to 5 weeks in 1982.

Wonder why concert is more popular than traveling? Because concert is usually in the city or a weekend trip that doesn’t involve taking a leave.

Let me just stop here.

Overall there are huge potentials in consumption in China I believe, and the quality consumption is the way to go. But some limiting factors need to be addressed first.