EV is probably one of the most mature new market. It is still something new for most families, but it seems to me that the global EV technology readiness is pretty much similar to that of iPhone in 2013-2015 (iPhone 5S – iPhone 6S).
The industry is more likely to make incremental improvements over the next decade. It won’t be easy in terms of technological progress; it will also need much more effort/thinking in terms of commercial strategies.
One of the latest sign is the most recent subsidy cut for “new energy vehicles”, dated March 26 in Beijing #财建〔2019〕138号.
The reduction in subsidies has been outlined as early as April 2015 #财建〔2015〕134号, in which 1. the subsidies for 2016 was announced and 2. projected that certain vehicles’ 2017-2018 subsidies shall be 20% lower & 3. 2019-2020 subsidies shall be 40% lower, among other things.
2017－2020年除燃料电池汽车外其他车型补助标准适当退坡，其中：2017－2018年补助标准在2016年基础上下降20%，2019－2020年补助标准在2016年基础上下降40%。
Here is the list of updates in the following years:
#财建〔2016〕958号 – Announced Dec 30, 2016; Effective Jan 1, 2017
#财建〔2018〕18号 – Announced Feb 12, 2018; Effective Feb 12, 2018; Grace Period till Jun 11, 2018, during which passengers would follow the previous program x 40%, trucks would follow the previous program x 70%, fuel cells would follow the previous program
#财建〔2019〕138号 – Announced Mar 26, 2019; Effective Mar 26, 2019; Grace Period till Jun 25, 2019, during which vehicles unqualified for 2019 standard shall follow previous program x 10%, qualified for 2019 standard shall follow previous program x 60%, policies for fuel cells and buses will announce separately
A summary of national government (not including regional) subsidy base for battery electric vehicles
More restrictions are added in 2018 and 2019, especially in terms of technical standards.
Smaller EV manufacturers with little R&D resources will need to restructure or pivot. Profitability will be an issue for many companies; but a needed test to form a mature market that can run itself and benefit most stakeholders.