Too Low The Value For Bristol Shareholders

The $74 billion merger between Bristol and Celgene was an uncertain one, opposed by Wellington (more than 8% of BMY) & Starboard (recently added position of less than 0.5% of BMY).

The merger in assets actually makes sense to me and should make sense to many investors. But the question of BMY-only shareholders, who don’t own much CELG stocks, is that the benefits are probably captured unevenly by Celgene.

Suppose the base case for Celgene stock price without acquisition is $75 and the merger price is $50 cash + 1 BMY share ($52 value) + $9 option ($3 value) -> $105 per share – when it was traded at $90/share, the market suggested a probability 50% of a successful merger. [75*(1-p) + 105*p = 90]

When CELG was traded at $84, the market suggested a success rate of 30%. [75*(1-p) + 105*p = 84]


(Yes, the market just take simple numbers… )

Wellington/Starboard might just want to add more negotiation power to get some other benefits (special board treatment e.g.) or to load up some CELG…

BMY alone probably won’t perform very well, they should understand that.

 

China’s Greater Bay Area vs. San Francisco Bay Area – Transit

SF Bay Area’s rail transit


SF Bay Area BART (one of the major rail transits above) service’s map, including planned projects

Source: futuretravel.today

SF Bay Area airports map (3 major airports: SFO, SJC, OAK)

Source: airportspotting.com

China’s Greater Bay Area newly-built bridge

Source: scmp.com

Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge is adding Hong Kong’s direct conenction with Zhuhai. To some extent, it is reducing the unparalleled weight of Hong Kong-Shenzhen bond.

Source: NY Times

China’s Greater Bay Area transit map

Source: lantau.gov.hk

China’s Greater Bay Area airports map

Source: scmp.com

Shenzhen and Hong Kong’s airports will be the dual core. Macau’s airport will gain more importance (towards tourists). Guangzhou’s airport will probably share more responsibility as the connecting point for all other cities China (the connecting hub was Hong Kong).

Smart Phones in 2019 – Foldable

The incremental improvements in smartphones are less exciting in recent years. Besides the introduction of 5G, companies trying to get consumers’ attentions have introduced foldable phones this year – a more dramatic change in appearance (to show that you have the latest/expansive phone).


Foldable Phones by Companies

Samsung: Galaxy Fold

Source: USA Today

Huawei: Mate X, 2299 euros

Source: CNBC.com

Xiaomi

Apple (concept, not released):

Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 To be Crowned for Global Push (?)

No doubt, Qualcomm has dominated the world in 4G and LTE and has invested a lot to prepare for the 5G future. As one of first and steady leaders & supporters & promoters in 5G technology, Qualcomm revealed its flagship Snapdragon 855 mobile platform on December 5, 2018 in Hawaii. [Qualcomm Snapdragon Tech Summit 2018]

With the Mobile World Congress (MWC) happening this week and many world’s leading handset brands having announced their products to be launched later this year, Snapdragon 855’s worldwide penetration map has become clear.

1. First of all, the largest handset manufacturer by shipment Samsung announced its 10th anniversary phones – Galaxy S10 series.

Source: samsung.com

There are four versions:

  • S10e       $750
  • S10         $900 with free Samsung’s wireless earbuds
  • S10+       $1000 with free Samsung’s wireless earbuds
  • S10 5G   bigger screen and battery, an additional rear camera (4!), with Qualcomm’s X50 5G modem, pricier and available on later dates ($1,200 up, depending on sale of S10+ I think) [Read more on S10 5G]

S10 series will use Snapdragon 855 platform in regions including North America, Latin America, Hong Kong, China, and Japan, and in Europe it will be using Samsung’s own Exynos 9820.

2. Xiaomi announced its Mi 9 in China on February 20.

Source: blog.mi.com

Mi 9 might be the cheapest handset with Snapdragon 855 available globally, starting at RMB ¥2,999 in China and €450 in Europe. Xiaomi also revealed Mi 9 SE, priced lower at RMB ¥1,999, featuring Snapdragon 710. And a global launch event is in Barcelona during MWC on 24 February.

Another version of a previous handset by Xiaomi – Mi Mix 3 5G is also announced today at MWC. Mi Mix 3, when introduced in October 2018, uses Snapdragon 845; the new 5G version will use Snapdragon 855, plus Qualcomm’s X50 5G modem. The device will be available in May for €599 (cheapest 5G with Qualcomm’s X50 modem?) in selected Europe market. [TechCrunch]

Source: TechCrunch

Xiaomi is one of Qualcomm’s crucial allies in Chinese market (and globally).

3. OnePlus to announce OnePlus 7 5G with Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 855 and X50 5G modem

A Chinese company that is doing surprisingly well in its global presence I’d say. By not focusing on Chinese market, OnePlus’ majority brand/marking/community efforts are outside of China IMO.

On the Qualcomm Snapdragon Technology Summit mentioned above, OnePlus has said it will work with EE (a division of BT, the largest operator in UK) to be the first to release a commercial 5G smartphone in Europe (second half of 2019 in UK and Finland, according to the recent report by USA Today).

Although OnePlus has been very successful in US before, it will solely focus on Europe at the first launch (different operator partners with Xiaomi).

4. Lenovo Z5 Pro GT – available only in China starting at ¥2698, first Snapdragon 855 phone available

Source: NDTV Gadgets

5. LG G8 ThinQ and V50 ThinQ – announced on MWC today, both with Snapdragon 855, the difference between the two is that V50 has 5G connectivity by Qualcomm partnering with Sprint

Source: Verge

So it becomes clear that Snapdragon 855 will be in

  • US with Samsung and LG
  • Europe with Xiaomi and OnePlus
  • China & Asia with Samsung, Xiaomi, Lenovo, LG

5G modem is more complicated with carriers’ spectrum but Qualcomm seems to be ready for its 5G globally, with the existing X50 and newly released X55. (And Apple will need another year from Intel for 5G…)

Source: anandtech.com

「Video of the Week」First FDA-Approved Gene Therapy by Spark And Its First Patient in US (Spark being acquired today)

Roche to acquire Spark with a 122% premium of it previous closing price, with a deal valued of ~$4.3 billion.

Spark won FDA’s first approval on gene therapy for genetic disease more than one year ago, treating retinal dystrophy (by mutations on the RPE65 gene) with LUXTURNA. The treatment carries a list price of $850,000, or $425,000 per eye.

Besides, Spark Therapeutics has SPK-8011 in clinical trials, a novel gene therapy for the treatment of haemophilia A, which is expected to start Phase 3 in 2019.

Here is a brief video of the procedure for it first patient in US last March.

What’s New in China’s Retailing (2) – Influencers, Social and Ads

Tencent and others have tried to challenge Alibaba’s dominance in e-commerce for years. From its investment in JD.com to Meilishuo and Pinduoduo, Tencent has helped an array of companies, giving them “special entrances” on its most powerful app WeChat, while blocking links from Alibaba (e.g. Taobao links).

Tencent’s series of efforts also represents shifts or new forms for e-commerce, at least in China.

Core/Basic Form: Alibaba (Taobao, Tmall), JD – trying to be the everything’s store, the go-to place for shopping

Although they have different business models (record commissions as revenues, record products as inventories and therefore net prices as revenues), they all trying to be the first website that consumers will think of when they want to buy something.

Tencent investments in and supports to JD.com is the direct competition with Alibaba, with some differentiating factors such as specialization in appliances (more quality control, logistics, procurement focus, not just a marketplace to connect buyers and sellers)

When these existing platform is good enough, where are the new opportunities?

Efforts I: To Sell Experiences/Appearances (Influencers)

The idea behind Tencent’s backing for Meilishuo. Mogujie and Meilishuo joined forces together in early 2016, giving them a bigger presence. Mogujie went IPO in December 2018, raising $66.5 million.

But that was only the idea. Selling & buying products is still the main format of user interactions. The difference with the Core/Basic Form is that they list products with prettier models & pics, and with videos/live streaming.

Meanwhile, Xiaohongshu is better at letting users generate authentic experiences and become influencers.

After all, Mogu is where consumers could buy fashion & skincare products with fancy demonstration (my understanding). And Xiaohongshu’s position is where users could share their life/day.

Alibaba led the $300m Series D in Xiaohongshu last May, at ~$3 billion valuation.

With Xiaohongshu’s emphasis on user’s journal/blog (e.g. travel and others, not directly relevant to selling products), it is also more like a social app, for users to build their reputation/followers (and social is where Alibaba is trying to compete with Tencent).

You can’t find an “influencer” on Mogu that is not trying to sell a thing; but many users on Xiaohongshu are not selling anything, while writing their stories, commenting and interacting with other bloggers/influencers.

Effort II: Buying Together, Leveraging Existing Social Network

Tencent’s WeChat has tried to push for the use cases of its Mini-program within WeChat. Pinduoduo might be the most successful one.

By incentivizing users to share with their friends and buy together (at extremely low product prices), Pinduoduo has grown its sales rapidly, currently having a $30+ billion market cap.

Making users as their marketing tools sounds a brilliant idea and is indeed very unique to Tencent. No one else could help to build such a big enterprise within a short period of time. (Alibaba has similarly powerful app such as Alipay but not social – can’t make users part of its marketing)

Plus, through this social marketing strategy, plus the low pricing, Pinduoduo could reach out to the rest of Chinese consumers who use smartphones but not served by existing platforms.

It might be the first time that Tencent could generate revenue on many of its WeChat users.

Effort III: Ads

This is more like what Facebook is doing. Tencent is adding new features and more ads to the Moment feature in WeChat, and also in the Public Accounts’ Feed feature.

While WeChat not directly doing e-commerce, it is leveraging the time users spend on the app to be part of the overall e-commerce economy.

In the time of rising consumer acquisition costs (see a previous post/podcast by a16z on consumer goods), it is becoming a vital part of the overall e-commerce.

What’s New in China’s Retailing (1) – A Little Extra Premium

Taobao is powerful but probably should not be the first word to describe Chinese retailing and consumers’ choices.

T-mall and JD might be considered as the second generation e-commerce in China, where branded goods are sold.

With the rise of Chinese middle class and their disposable incomes, retailers found that they are willing to pay a little extra to get a sense of some kinds of “premium”.

So there arises a wave of e-commerce efforts that are selective about their offerings, in terms of quality and design. Meanwhile, some marketplace will emphasize on their own brand (website/marketplace), instead of the brands of the products – somewhat similar to “AmazonBasics” but more correctly “AmazonPremium”.


Yanxuan (网易严选), by NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES), might be the most successful one.

It started with products made by original manufacturers who supply to top international brands, hitting consumers’ sweet spot in price and quality.

NetEase Yanxuan | Source: you.163.com

Xiaomi has a similar strategy but featuring more of its own products or affiliated products. on Xiaomi Youpin (小米有品), independent of its core Mi Store (小米商城).

Xiaomi Youpin | Source: xiaomiyoupin.com

Alibaba has its response under Taobao’s name called Taobao Xinxuan (淘宝心选), making Xinxuan its own brand.

Taobao Xinxuan | Source: good.world.tmall.com

Updated

  • From NetEase 2018 Q4 earnings report, we could see its E-commerce net revenues were RMB6,678.7 million (US$971.4 million), an increase of 43.5%
    compared with the fourth quarter of 2017. (Its e-commerce revenue includes Yanxuan and Kaola)
  • 2018 full year net revenues from e-commerce were RMB19,235.5 million (US$2,797.7 million), an increase of 64.8% compared to RMB11,670.4 million for fiscal year 2017.
  • And Amazon is in talks to merge its China business with NetEase‘s e-commerce site Kaola, ranked as the No.1 cross-border import retail e-commerce platform in China.
  • The new e-commerce unit will be as important as gaming to NetEase, with 3 sub-teams: Yanxuan, Kaola and Amazon China. The latter two might combine into one team.
  • And Yanxuan has opened it first offline store in Hangzhou last December
Yanxuan offline store | Source: 36kr

A New Round of EV/Autonomous-driving Financing

Tesla is the leader in the electric vehicle market obviously, but it may not be the only winner. As technology matures and become more advanced, it will become more of a business competition (assuming design & production generally won’t be a problem in the next decade).

And another round of fresh financing in this field is showing us the future to come, probably with a few leaders in different sub-segments of EV market.

And the self-driving is still a combating ground for companies. Because of its complexity, lots of collaborations and alliances are expected. (e.g. Toyota to invest $500 million in Uber for self-driving cars)


Led by Amazon, the $700 million investments in Rivian, announced on February 15, is the latest move. As the leader in electric pickup and SUV, Rivian will help Amazon to build the next generation logistics network. After all, although amazon is in e-commerce (and other) business, it is also a logistics company (so does Walmart).  In the next 15-30 years will have its own (delivery) network & infrastructure, independent of USPS, UPS, FedEx, etc., comprised of (autonomous) airliner, trucks, delivery robots, etc… Yes, Amazon may become similar to the US postal system in the 19th century.

R1T Electric Truck (updated in Jan 2021; previous link broken) | Source: Rivian
R1T Truck expected spec | Source: Rivian

The R1T and R1S will be produced at Rivian’s manufacturing plant in Normal, Illinois, with customer deliveries expected to start in late 2020.

Just before that, on February 7, Aurora has raised more than $530 million in Series B financing for its self-driving technology, led by Sequoia Capital and includes “significant investment” from Amazon. [Techcrunch]

The investment was reported in early January [recode] and not a good news for companies like Tesla. The team is led by 3 industry leaders: CEO Chris Urmson, who was the CTO for Waymo, CPO (chief product officer) Sterling Anderson, Tesla’s former head of Autopilot, and CTO Drew Bagnellone, one of the founding members of Uber’s autonomous efforts. Aurora is now valued at more than $2.5 billion.

Meanwhile, Tesla Semi is probably still the most ready and earliest e-truck with auto-pilot. First unveiled in November 2017, Tesla Semi has its prototype traveled by itself (without any escort or accompanying vehicles) for a week to arrive at the J. B. Hunt headquarters in Arkansas on August 24, 2018.

Tesla Semi | Source: Tesla

Other self-driving companies have started to explore use cases.

Cruise Automation, the self-driving unit of General Motors, is teaming up with DoorDash to test a food delivery service in San Francisco using autonomous vehicles. The pilot will commence in “early 2019.” [Verge]

Nuro, which raised $940 million from Softbank Vision Fund in Februry, is focusing on self-driving bots and has a (pilot) partnership with Kroger.

Nuro’s vehicles | Source: TechCrunch

And Waymo has launched/tested its self-driving ride service in Arizona in December 2018.

And Ford and Volkswagen might join together to bet on Argo AI, valued at about $4 billion, as Bloomberg reported on February 14.

And Daimler and BMW may go into an extensive cooperation in autonomous driving.


First half of 2019 might be the last chance to get into this game if winning the future of cars is expected.