Airbnb’s IPO Plan & Capital Allocation

Airbnb did well in the past quarters before 2020 and doesn’t have much concerns for cash. It was one of the most financially healthy startup.

Actually, its full year earnings turned positive as early as 2017, when it generated earnings of about $100m while bookings grew around 150%. It became profitable in the second half of 2016.

In 2018, it made $93 million in profit on $2.6 billion in revenue.

More recently, it took in more than $1 billion in revenue in 2019Q2.

However, Airbnb racked up a $322 million net loss for the nine months through September, down from a $200 million profit a year earlier.

In 2019Q3 alone, Airbnb increased its revenue to $1.65 billion in the third quarter, up almost $400 million from a year earlier, one of the people said. But costs rose faster. Net profit for the quarter was $266 million – less than the $337 million profit for the same period in 2018

All sorts of reports said Airbnb is preparing to go IPO in 2020… until coronavirus hit.

When WSJ reported in Feb, it says Airbnb’s business in China is currently down about 80% compared with last year.

Now as travel industry worldwide is hit, Aribnb total revenue could decline 70-90% and might have cash flow problem.

It now has raised debt and cancelled summer internships.

In early April, Airbnb raised $1 billion in debt and equity from private equity firms Silver Lake and Sixth Street Partners.

Last week, Airbnb raised another $1 billion in debt. Fidelity, T Rowe Price and Blackrock are participating along with Apollo and Oaktree.

While Airbnb should be fine and solvent, how its revenue gonna recover & how to show its growth rate will be an IPO headache.

「What’s News In China」

On April 17, China 2020 Q1 GDP data is released. China’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first three months of 2020 compared with a year earlier, the first such contraction since Beijing began reporting quarterly gross domestic product in 1992. // WSJ


On April 15, China cut the benchmark interest rate for the second time this year, lowering the medium-term lending facility (MLF) for financial institutions to 2.95%. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), based on banks quotations, was lowered by 20 basis points (bps) from 4.05% to 3.85%. // Reuters | PBOC


China’s central bank has introduced a homegrown digital currency across four cities as part of a pilot program. Internal tests of the digital currency are being conducted in four large cities around China—Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu and Xiong’an, a satellite city of Beijing. // WSJ


As China is reopening its economy, getting consumers to spend is one of the key initiatives. Many cities collaborate with Alipay to give residents discount coupons for various needs. Wuhan, which reopened on April 8, on April 17 announced that it is going to offer coupons worth of 2.3 billion RMB for restaurant, shopping malls, grocery stores and other cultural/sports spendings. // cnbeta

「News of the Week」 Dow Jones Best Two-week Performance Since 1930s

WSJ – Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.2% this week, extending its rally over the past two weeks to 15%—its best performance since 1938

Things that pushed the market upward:

STAT – Early peek at data on Gilead coronavirus drug suggests patients are responding to treatment

White House – Reopening guideline

Texas Tribune – Texas to restart the economy, loosens some restrictions

Occidental Petroleum (4): Agreement With Carl Icahn, Oil Price Plunge

According to the 13F-HR, Icahn held 33,244,429, 26,332,388 and 22,571,854 shares of Occidental as of June 30, September 30 and December 31, 2019.

Icahn’s fifth message on February 12, 2020.

Things evolved fast in 2020.

Oil prices plunged in March as COVID-19 developed and a price war started.

Line chart of Brent crude ($/barrel) showing Oil price crashes 30% after Saudi Arabia launches price war

Oil plunges 24% for worst day since 1991 after OPEC deal failure ...

Occidental’s stock price closed at $12.51 on March 9, dropping 53.4% from March 6 and 60.3% from March 5. The ex-div date was March 9, with $0.79 dividend per share announced in February.

The following day (March 10), Occidental reduced to quarterly dividend to $0.11 from 0.79, effective July 2020.

It also reduces 2020 capital spending to between $3.5 billion and $3.7 billion from $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion and will implement additional operating and corporate cost reductions.

Meanwhile, Icahn boosted its ownership close to 10% of Occidental.

On March 25, both parties reached agreement. Occidental will add three new Icahn designated directors to Occidental’s Board.

The Icahn Group has withdrawn its slate of director nominees and stockholder proposals at the 2020 Annual Meeting and agreed to vote in favor of the Board’s director nominees and amendments to Occidental’s restated certificate of incorporation that enhance Occidental’s corporate governance.

Under the agreement, the Icahn Group will petition the Delaware Supreme Court to withdraw its pending appeal before the Court relating to the Icahn Group’s books and records request under Section 220 of the Delaware General Corporation Law.

At the same time, Occidental further cut the capital spending to between $2.7 billion and $2.9 billion from its original 2020 guidance of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion. The Company also announced it will reduce 2020 operating and corporate costs by at least $600 million compared to the original 2020 plan, including significant salary reductions for executive leadership. Operating cost reductions are expected to lower 2020 domestic operating costs to approximately $7.00 per BOE.

To further reserve cash, on April 15, Occidental elected to pay a quarterly $200 million payment it owes Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in common shares, at a 10% discount. Occidental could choose to pay Berkshire differently in future quarters.

Occidental 2019 full year financial result | Earnings call transcript

Occidental Petroleum (3): Sweetened Bid, Carl Icahn

The Sweetened Winning Bid

On May 5, 2019, as part of the financing plan, Occidental entered into an agreement with Total to sell Anadarko’s African assets for for $8.8 billion , contingent on successfully completing the acquisition of Anadarko.

The assets to be sold to Total represent approximately 6% of the expected net production and approximately 7% of the cash flow after capital expenditures of Occidental in 2020 pro forma for the acquisition of Anadarko.

At the same time, Occidental increased the cash portion of its $76-per-share offer to a level that would allow it to make a bid that does not require the approval of its shareholders. Under the new terms, the offer comprises $59 in cash and 0.2934 shares of Occidental common stock per share of Anadarko. (78% Cash and 22% Stock)

This modification (of not requiring a shareholder vote) would become one of the major arguments brought by Carl Icahn later on.

Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental, also explains in her letter to Anadarko’s Board,

Our revised proposal does not require an Occidental shareholder vote, which has been repeatedly cited as the explanation for why you previously chose Chevron’s $65 offer over our $76 offer

Plus, the $1 billion breakup fee would be borne by Occidental after the acquisition.

The bidding war didn’t escalate.

On May 9, 2019, Occidental won the battle for Anadarko as Chevron exited bidding.

“Costs and capital discipline always matter,” Mr. Wirth said. “An increased offer would have eroded value to our shareholders.” Shares in Chevron rose 3.1% on Thursday. Occidental’s stock fell 6.4%, while Anadarko’s shares declined 3.2%.

Shareholders’ Discontent & Carl Icahn Coming

Along the bidding process, on the day (April 30) that Occidental secured Berkshire’s money, T. Rowe Price Group, one of the largest shareholders of Occidental Petroleum, says it opposes the energy company’s proposed merger with Anadarko Petroleum.

We think there is significant execution risk with the Anadarko deal and it would increase Occidental’s financial leverage significantly as well.

– John Linehan, manager at T Rowe Price Equity Income fund

On May 3, Bloomberg reported that Carl Icahn had built a small stake in Occidental Petroleum Corp.

Some investors expressed their intention to vote against approving Occidental’s Board.

At Occidental’s annual meeting in Houston on Friday (May 10), a proposal cutting the percentage of shareholders required to call a special meeting (from 25% to 15%) was backed by investors speaking for 60% of the shares voted, in defiance of opposition from Occidental’s board.

On May 30, Carl Icahn sued Occidenta over its acquisition of Anadarko, calling its $38 billion deal to buy Anadarko Petroleum Corp. “fundamentally misguided”.

Icahn argus that the Purchase is a Levered Bet on the Price of Oil, as Occidental’s debt (and debt-like preferred stock) increases from approximately $10 billion to over $45 billion.

The Icahn parties estimate that if the price of oil declines to approximately $45 per barrel or below for an extended period of time, Occidental might be forced to cut the common dividend. The warrants given to Berkshire alone were worth approximately $1.2 billion on the day the preferred deal was announced. And the singular focus to win the Anadarko bid at any cost prevented Occidental from
maximizing value in its sale of Anadarko’s African assets. [Court Document]

However, the complaint was to seek certain books and records relating to the Anadarko acquisition, etc. And eventually, in September 2019, the court ruled in favor of Occidental.

On June 26, in a preliminary copy, Icahn called for a special shareholder meeting where he plans to oust and replace four Occidental directors and change the company’s charter through a stockholder consent solicitation to prevent it from ever engineering a similar takeover again. [Icahn Solicitation Statement – Preliminary] [Icahn Solicitation Statement – Definitive]

On July 22, Icahn published an open letter to Occidental shareholders, four days after the definitive proxy statement was filed.

On August 8, Occidental announced that it has completed the acquisition of Anadarko.

[Icahn’s second and third open letters on August 13 and August 28]

In the third letter, Icahn opposed the two new board members (not in Icahn’s slate) proposed by Occidental.

On November 8, in his fourth open letter,

Earlier this year we owned over 33 million shares of OXY, but recently we reduced the size of our investment.  I still own almost 23 million shares, valued at almost $900 million, but this has become a very risky investment and without changing the incumbent Board and potentially the CEO, and in the absence of accountability for the OxyDarko Disaster, I am very concerned.

We fully intend to run a proxy fight, and if elected, work to right this teetering ship.

Occidental Petroleum (2): Topping Chevron’s Bid For Anadarko, Buffett’s Preferred Investment

Occidental Bids Anadarko Petroleum (APC)

Having grown into the No.1 operator in Permian in 2018Q4, Occidental definitely don’t want give that title back to Chevron.

While acquiring Anadarko is an add-on for Chevron, it’s much more financially challenging for Occidental.

Source: Chevron

Occidental produces at a similar scale as Anadarko. So it’s presumably an acquisition that would double its size.

But Occidental moved decisively. It offered $76.00 per share for Anadarko on April 24, 12 days after Chevron’s announcement, with ~17% premium over the $65 per share agreement. Taking into account the stock price movement, Occidental’s deal presents a ~20% premium.

Occidental’s offer also has more cash component (50/50) – $38.00 in cash and 0.6094 shares of Occidental common stock per Anadarko share, valuing Anadarko at $57 billion.

Occidental also argues a $3.5 billion free cash flow improvements through synergies and capital reduction, compared with Chevron’s $2 billion / year synergies.

Occidental actually tried to acquire Anadarko earlier in April, according to the press release later on.

It is unfortunate that Anadarko agreed to pay a break up fee of $1 billion, representing approximately $2 per share, without even picking up the phone to speak to us after we made two proposals during the week of April 8 that were at a significantly higher value to the transaction you were apparently negotiating with Chevron.

We noted to you on April 8 that our due diligence is complete. As you are aware, our financial advisors are BofA Merrill Lynch and Citi, and our legal advisors are Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP, and we and they are available to discuss any aspect of our proposal. We and our advisors have reviewed your merger agreement with Chevron. We are separately sending to you and your legal advisors a form of merger agreement on that basis which we would be prepared to enter into, subject to our agreeing to the disclosure schedules to be attached, together with a copy of our financing commitment letter.

Financing The Acquisition

Acquisition of this size is difficult for Occidental, especially as it offers much more cash than stocks.

In 2018, Occidental generated $7,669 million operating cash flows with $(4,975) million CapEx. It also paid $(2,374) million in cash dividend and bought back $(1,248) million stocks.

On its balance sheet as of the end of 2018, it had $3,033 million cash, and $10,317 million long-term debt.

On April 30, $10 billion financing was secured as Buffett came on board.

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. has committed to invest a total of $10 billion in Occidental. The investment is contingent upon Occidental entering into and completing its proposed acquisition of Anadarko. Berkshire Hathaway will receive 100,000 shares of Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock with a liquidation value of $100,000 per share, together with a warrant to purchase up to 80.0 million shares of Occidental common stock at an exercise price of $62.50 per share.

The preferred shares also have a dividend rate of 8% per year.

As WSJ describes, the investment “is straight out of Warren Buffett’s playbook“. During and after the financial crisis, Berkshire acted as a lender of last resort for blue-chip companies including Goldman Sachs, General Electric and Bank of America.

Occidental marks Berkshire’s largest purchase of preferred shares; the 2013 Heinz deal has $8 billion preferred stocks and other securities.

Berkshire’s Preferreds | Source: WSJ

Mr. Buffett and Occidental have some shared history.

Mr. Buffett’s first stock purchase was three shares of Cities Service preferred stock when he was 11 years old. Occidental’s chief executive, Vicki Hollub, started her career at Cities Service, which was later acquired by Occidental. Cities Service is now called CITGO Petroleum Corp. and owned by Venezuela’s Petróleos de Venezuela SA.

「What’s News In China」

On April 7, TAL Education 好未来 (NASDAQ: TAL) announced it discovered “certain employee wrongdoing” in its “routine internal auditing process.” TAL says the employee of question could wrongly inflate “Light Class” 轻课 sales by forging contracts and other documentations. For the fiscal year 2020 ended February 29, 2020, “Light Class” sales accounted for approximately 3% to 4% of the Company’s total estimated revenues.  // Press Release | 36kr


Last week, Guangdong Restaurant Association published an open letter to Meituan, saying that Meituan delivery has a market share of 60 to 90 per cent in Guangdong province… charges up to 26 per cent commission for newly-opened catering merchants. Meituan (HKG: 3690) on April 10 replies that more than 80 per cent of businesses on its platform pay a commission of between 10 per cent to 20 per cent. And it only earns ¥0.02 per delivery order (profit) in 2019Q4. // Sina | SCMP


China’s three biggest telecoms carriers join forces to introduce 5G-based messaging service 5G消息, introducing 5G-based rich communication services (RCS), competing with existing apps like Tencent’s WeChat. It will also allow organizations and firms to directly provide services to and communicate with users. // technode | White Paper


On April 10, Blackstone Chairman and CEO Schwartzman went on live with audience in China, with Hillhouse’s Lei Zhang and Vanke Liang Yu. Schwartzman brought his new book. The live-streaming is on Bytedance’s Toutiao and Douyin. // Sina | 36kr

Source: 36kr

「News of the Week」New York State Curve Flattening, Stock Market Up

On Tuesday (April 7), Gov. Andrew Cuomo projected that the state is reaching a plateau in coronavirus hospitalizations due to strict social distancing measures.

“To the extent that we see a flattening or a possible plateau, that’s because of what we’re doing and we have to keep doing it,” Mr. Cuomo said. (WSJ)

three day hospitalizations
Source: Cuomo press conference, Axios

The S&P 500 on Thursday (April 9) closed out its best four-day streak since 1974, up 11.9% (Dow up 12%). (CNBC)

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