US Delivery System (6): Amazon As Delivery Behemoth (Continu’d)

Amazon as a delivery behemoth (continu’d)

Growing capabilities in ocean, more vans & aircrafts

In 2016, Amazon registered itself with a federal agency overseeing ocean transportation, a step towards allowing it to serve as an intermediary for suppliers shipping merchandise in or out of the U.S.

Several month later, it was reported that Amazon had helped ship at least 150 containers of goods from China since October 2016, according to shipping documents collected at ports of entry that were compiled by Ocean Audit, a company specializing in ocean-freight refund recovery for shippers.

As of the beginning of 2018, Amazon’s freight shipping arm has shipped over 5,300 shipping containers from China to the United States. Amazon provides either simply the trans-Pacific portion of the trip or end-to-end service for companies that want it. That can include pick-up at the factory door in China,  shipment across the Pacific to a U.S. port, and trucking to Amazon fulfillment centers in the United States. Amazon Logistics and Beijing Joyo have published rates in their publicly accessible tariffs that describe the types of services and fees that their clients can utilize.

Amazon embarked in earnest on building its own last-mile network after UPS failed to bring orders to customers in time for Christmas in 2013, costing Amazon millions of dollars in refunds. [WSJ]

In 2018, Amazon ordered 20,000 Mercedes-Benz vans from Daimler. Since developing its own delivery network in 2018, Amazon .has built up a fleet of 30,000 last-mile delivery trucks and vans. As of Dec 2019 Bloomberg’s report, it has more than 800 delivery contractors in its last-mile network employing 75,000 U.S. drivers.

Amazon also has announced plans to order 100,000 battery-powered delivery vans from Rivian Automotive, an electric car-making venture it purchased a stake in earlier this year. The first of those battery-powered vans will hit the road in 2021.

Prime Air, the Amazon-branded planes, first debuted in Aug 2016. It first plane is a Boeing 767 owned by Atlas Air that had been converted into a freighter. Amazon announced deals with two aircraft leasing companies — Atlas, and another called Air Transport Services Group, or ATSG — in May 2016 to fly as many as 40 dedicated cargo planes over the next two years. [recode]

Atlas Air will be phasing in 20 Boeing 767-300s to carry Amazon’s freight, under the terms of a 10-year lease and a seven-year maintenance and operation contract. ATSG says its air services will eventually operate just as many planes for Amazon: 12 Boeing 767-200s that are covered by five-year leases, plus eight 767-300s with seven-year leases. [geekwire]

Amazon Prime Air plane
Source: recode

In May 2019, the main Air Hub at the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport broke ground. Amazon will invest $1.5 billion. It can park 100 cargo jets and will open in 2021.

In 2019, after FedEx ended the services with Amazon, it announced a partnership with GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) to lease an additional 15 Boeing 737-800 cargo aircraft. These fifteen aircraft will be in addition to the five Boeing 737-800’s already leased from GECAS and announced earlier 2019.

“These new aircraft create additional capacity for Amazon Air, building on the investment in our Prime Free One-Day program,” said Dave Clark, Senior Vice President of Worldwide Operations at Amazon. “By 2021, Amazon Air will have a portfolio of 70 aircraft flying in our dedicated air network.”

「What’s News In China」

On May 24, Hubei Province besides Wuhan City would end the lockdown starting on May 25. The city of Wuhan, where the virus was first detected in December, is to remain locked down until April 8. // Time | Gov.cn


ANTA (HKG: 2020) reported its 2019 financial results, revenue growing 40.8% to ¥34 billion. Its FILA brand grows 73.9% in revenue, reaching ¥14.8 billion or 43.5% of the total revenue. // ANTA Presentation | prnewswire


 

US Delivery System (5): Amazon As Delivery Behemoth

Amazon as a delivery behemoth

50% of Amazon’s US packages

Amazon has been steadily growing its logistics operation over the last decade, and it now delivers more than half of all Amazon packages in the US.  “Our AlphaWise analysis shows that Amazon Logistics already delivers ~50% of Amazon US volumes, focused on urban areas,” Morgan Stanley said.

Share of Amazon Packages | Source: WSJ

Amazon needs to deliver about 5 billion packages per year. Amazon Logistics delivers about 20% of its U.S. package volumes from a year ago and is now shipping at a rate of 2.5 billion per year.

MS estimates UPS and FedEx have U.S. shipping volumes of 4.7 billion and 3 billion packages per year, respectively.

By 2022, Amazon Logistics will reach a volume of 6.5 billion packages per year , far exceeding its estimate for UPS at 5 billion packages per year and FedEx at 3.4 billion packages per year.

FedEx and UPS

In its 2018 annual report, published in Feb 2019, Amazon counted companies in “transportation and logistics services” among its rivals. “They had never done that before that day,” Mr. Smith (Founder, Chairman & CEO of FedEx) said. “So we took it seriously.”

In August 2019, FexEx said it decided not to renew the contract when it expires at the end of August, not delivering Amazon packages through its ground network. In June, FedEx said it was ending its air-shipping contract with Amazon in the U.S.

While FedEx is walking away from the largest e-commerce player in the U.S., FedEx is positioning itself as a go-to carrier for Target Corp., Walmart Inc. and the world of retailers that aim to compete with Amazon. [WSJ]

Meanwhile, UPS has been investing heavily to expand its capacity to handle more packages for Amazon and other shippers. UPS reported a surge in the volume of packages going through its air network in the June quarter. [WSJ]

Further, in the 2019 holiday season, Amazon blocked its third-party sellers from using FedEx’s ground delivery network for Prime shipments, citing a decline in performance heading into the final stretch of the holiday shopping season.

Shipping with Amazon

What is more concerning for other shipping & logistics companies is the new “Shipping with Amazon” program, reported by WSJ in Feb 2018.

Amazon expects to roll out the delivery service in Los Angeles in coming weeks with third-party merchants that sell goods via its website.

While the program is being piloted with the company’s third-party sellers, it is envisioned as eventually accommodating other businesses as well.

REITs Coronavirus Responses Roundup

Park Hotels & Resorts (PK)

    • March 9 – Withdraws 2020 Outlook
    • March 16 – Business Update
      • Withdraw guidance
      • Suspend and scale down operations
      • Draw $350 million from revolving credit facility
      • Pay one consistent dividend ($0.45/share), suspend all other dividends until year-end
      • Cancel / defer $130 million of $200 million CapEx
    • March 26 – Additional Update
      • Draw $650 million revolving credit facility
      • Alternative sources of revenue from applicable government authorities and hospitals such as providing temporary lodging for first responders, other medical personnel, military personnel, displaced guests and residents of communities where Park’s hotels are located
    • 2019 Q4 Presentation

Starwood Property Trust (STWD)

    • March 13 – Update
      • withdrawn its full year 2020 outlook
    • March 20 – Actions to Mitigate Impact of COVID-19
      • Currently all of Apple Hospitality’s hotels remain open and operational; implemented cost elimination and efficiency initiatives at each of the Company’s hotels by reducing labor costs and tempering certain services and amenities.
      • Postpone all non-essential capital improvement projects planned for 2020; a reduction of approximately $50 million in capital improvements
      • Suspend monthly distributions
      • Has recently drawn on its credit facility and currently has approximately $300 million of cash on hand. Current availability on the Company’s revolving credit facility is $145 million. The Company has no scheduled debt maturities for the remainder of the year and approximately $34 million in scheduled maturities in 2021.
      • Executive pay cut
    • 2020 Feb Presentation

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)

    • March 25 – Open letter to stockholders & Investor Presentation
      • Pay one consistent dividend ($0.4/share)
      • ARI has secured borrowing facilities with six counter-parties with remaining terms ranging from six months to over three years, assuming the exercise of our extension options
      • ARI holds only two positions in commercial real estate securities totaling $68 million, neither of which are financed
    • 2019 Q4 Presentation

TPG Real Estate Finance Trust (TRTX)

    • March 18 – Declare Cash Dividend and Company Update
      • Consistent dividend ($0.43/share)
      • More than half of liabilities are comprised of term financings, including CLO’s
      • Less exposure to hotel (13%) and retail (0.6%), less than the 22% average of mREIT peers
    • March 23 – Update
      • Postpone previously announced Q1 dividend for one quarter, payable on July 14, 2020 to stockholders of record as of June 15, 2020
      • CRE debt securities portfolio – as of March 22, 2020, has an aggregate face amount of approximately $960 million, pledged as collateral under daily mark-to-market secured revolving repurchase facilities in the amount of approximately $760 million. Fluctuations in the value of CRE debt securities portfolio, including as a result of changes in credit spreads, have resulted in the Company being required to post cash collateral with its lenders under such facilities
      • If the requirements to post additional cash collateral continue to be material, there is no certainty that the Company will be in a position to continue to fund such payments.
    • 2019 Q4 Presentation

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF)

Restaurant Chains Coronavirus Responses: McDonald’s

McDonald’s (MCD)

    • March 16
      • for company-owned stores: close seating areas, focus on delivery, drive-thru and walk-in take-out
      • for franchisees: strongly encouraged to adopt similar operations procedures; the guidance is supported by franchisee leadership and is expected to be adopted by the majority of franchisees
      • most crew members with scheduled shifts will be redeployed to support serving customers in the Drive-Thru, carry-out and McDelivery
    • March 20
      • working with franchisees around the world in order to promote financial liquidity (e.g. rent deferrals) during this period of uncertainty
      • providing two weeks of paid leave for employees of company-owned restaurants who are impacted by the virus (announced on March 10)
      • franchisees and partners around the world are are supporting first responders, hospital and healthcare workers with free food and/or drinks in recognition and support of the work they are doing to help others.  
        • In the U.S., some franchisees are providing free lunches to children dependent on free school lunch programs where school is closed, others are providing free meals to healthcare workers and a franchisee in the Midwest is offering up their parking lots for Blood Drives
        • Across Europe, many markets are providing free drinks, coffee and meals to first responders and healthcare workers on the front lines
        • In Guatemala, the restaurants are providing food to workers who are constructing temporary hospitals to support treatment of those diagnosed with COVID-19.
        • In the Philippines, we will be providing food to medical health workers, NGO volunteers and parts of the population that are experiencing challenges accessing food
    • March 20, CEO Interview with CNBC
      • has suspended its buyback program several weeks ago
      • plan is to maintain its quarterly cash dividend of $1.25
      • In China, the epicenter of the virus, McDonald’s has reopened 95% of its restaurants
      • only 50 out of 14,000 McDonald’s U.S. locations have closed due to the pandemic
      • franchisees are working with lenders to restructure loans, and suppliers are extending payment terms
    • March 25
      • from 3/24 – 4/6, McDelivery through both Uber Eats and DoorDash is offering $0 Delivery Fee for any orders with a $15 minimum basket size
    • March 25 (Restaurant Business Article)
      • will temporarily suspend its all-day breakfast menu in the coming weeks as the chain simplifies its operations (still available during the morning)
    • Update: March 26, $1 billion borrowing
      • entered into a 364-Day Revolving Credit Agreement dated as of March 25, 2020; and borrowed the full $1 billion committed amount available under the Agreement
    • Update: March 27, $3.5 billion borrowing
      • On March 27, 2020, McDonald’s issued an aggregate principal amount of $3.5 billion of medium-term notes, pursuant to the existing medium-term notes program filed with the SEC and effective on July 27, 2018
    • Continuously developing thread of messages

Update: MCD 1-month chart as of March 27

Source: Google

Restaurant (Coffee Shop) Chains Coronavirus Responses: Starbucks

Starbucks (SBUX)

  • March 4, Open letter to all stakeholders
    • increased cleaning and sanitizing for all company-operated stores
    • pausing the use of personal cups and “for here” ware
      • continue to honor the 10-cent discount for anyone who brings in a personal cup or asks for “for here” ware
  • March 5, Updates on Starbucks China and Impact of COVID-19 on China Business
    • Starbucks China was able to start re-opening doors again. On March 5, the company announced 90 percent of the stores are open again, operating under modified hours and conditions
    • Last week, the Shanghai Reserve Roastery re-opened (Feb 26 in China) after being closed for more than a month
    • During the month of February, Starbucks China’s comparable store sales were down 78% versus the prior year
    • In the last fiscal week of February, relative to the prior week, average daily transactions per store improved 6% and total weekly gross sales in China grew 80%, reflecting the reopening of stores. In that last week, Starbucks China’s mobile orders accounted for approximately 80% of sales mix, with 30% Mobile Order & Delivery and 50% Mobile Order & Pay.
    • currently estimate that comparable store sales in China for Q2 FY20 will be down approximately 50% versus the prior year. Therefore, we expect a COVID-19-related headwind of approximately $400 million to $430 million to China’s revenue in Q2 FY20 versus prior expectations.
  • March 6, Letter to partners
    • First confirmed case: late last night (March 5), we learned one of our store partners at our 1st & University store in downtown Seattle was diagnosed with COVID-19 and is self-isolating at home for a period of time.
      • closed the store and initiated a deep clean overnight, following all recommended guidelines from the City of Seattle and King County public health authorities
      • these officials have encouraged us to reopen the store after further preventative cleaning, which we have already conducted, staffed by partners who have no known impact from COVID-19
      • look forward to welcoming our customers back very soon
  • March 11, Letter to partners
    • temporarily expanding catastrophe pay for COVID-19 partner care, in addition to benefits like sick pay, vacation pay or personal time off as available. Any partner who has been diagnosed with or exposed to COVID-19, or comes in close prolonged contact with someone in their store or household who has, is eligible for up to 14 days of catastrophe pay – whether or not they are showing symptoms
    • if have not had any known contact with someone diagnosed with COVID-19, but are showing symptoms, partners should stay home until remaining symptom-free for 24 hours. Can use temporary, expanded catastrophe pay for any scheduled shifts over a three-day period, and then similarly use additional benefits like sick pay, vacation pay or personal time off
    • certain individuals may consider taking extra precautions. Should they choose to self-isolate, are also eligible for up to 14 days of catastrophe pay with a doctor’s noted recommendation
    • The CUP Fund, started by partners, is always available. The fund is for partners to use when facing an unexpected financial hardship.
      • Starbucks is matching 50 cents for every dollar of partners’ donation
    • Other free mental health/counseling programs, including Employee Assistance Program, Headspace
  • March 11, Letter to customers
    • as we navigate this dynamic situation community-by-community and store-by-store, we may adapt the store experience by limiting seating to improve social distancing, enable mobile order-only scenarios for pickup via the Starbucks App or delivery via Uber Eats, or in some cases only the Drive Thru will be open
    • we will close a store if we feel it is in the best interest of our customers and partners, or if we are directed to do so by government authorities
  • March 12, $1.75 billion note offering
    • completed a public offering pursuant to an underwriting agreement, under which Starbucks agreed to issue and sell to the several underwriters (i) $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 2.000% Senior Notes due 2027 (the “2027 Notes”), (ii) $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 2.250% Senior Notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”) and (iii) $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 3.350% Senior Notes due 2050 (the “2050 Notes” and, together with the 2027 Notes and the 2030 Notes, the “Notes”)
    • prospectus
  • March 15
    • Starting today, we will move to a “to go” model across the U.S. and Canada for at least two weeks to help prevent prolonged social gathering
      • pausing the use of all seating
      • Café, Mobile Order & Pay, Drive Thru and Delivery will still be open
    • temporarily closing company-operated stores in high-social gathering locations like stores that are located inside malls or on university campuses
    • In communities such as Seattle and New York with high clusters of COVID-19 cases, we will reduce operating hours or temporarily close select stores
    • invest up to $10 million in the CUP fund
    • temporarily expanding the Care@Work program to provide support for partners needing additional backup childcare options as a result of school closures.
  • March 17, Letter to customers
    • track store hours and closures via our website or the Starbucks app
    • delay the expiration of all Stars scheduled to expire between now and June 1, 2020
  • March 20
    • Today, we are making the decision to close access to our cafés altogether for two weeks and limiting our services to Drive Thru and delivery only.
      • Some exceptions will be made for those cafés serving in or around hospitals and health care centers in our efforts to serve frontline responders and health care workers.
      • changes apply to company-operated stores in the U.S. and Canada; licensed partners will make decisions for their properties
      • Delivery continues to be another option from those Starbucks locations still open through Starbucks Delivers in markets across the United States and Canada through the Uber Eats app.
    • To pay all store partners for the next 30 days, whether come to work or choose to stay home
    • for stores in or around hospitals, or communities with limited food options, will remain open with partners who are explicitly choosing to continue to serve
      • continue to work very closely with local, state and the federal government to continually assess how best to stay open, stay safe, and be part of the solution during this time
  • March 21 (first day after store closure and drive-thru only)
    • partners in every region around the U.S. and Canada showed up before dawn to open drive-thru-only experiences at their stores. They filled in for each other at short-staffed nearby stores. Stores that could open, did.
  • March 22 (Restaurant Business Article)
    • employees who work their shifts Mar.21 – April 19 are eligible for Starbucks Service Pay, worth an additional $3 an hour

Update: SBUX 1-month chart as of March 27

Source: Google

「What’s News In China」

Sales in China dropped 20.5% for January and February due to COVID-19 and the lockdown. Restaurant sales dropped 43.1%. // Xinhua


Tencent (HKG: 0700) reported its 2019 financial results, growing the top-line at 21% and adjusted EBITDA at 30%. Its fintech services revenue has surpassed ¥100 billion in 2019. There are over 50 million monthly active merchants in 2019Q4 and LiCaiTong 理财通, increased its aggregate customer assets over 50% year-on-year, while its number of customers more than doubled year-on-year. // Press Release | Annual Report


Lilium raised $240M in a recent financing round led by Tencent, with participation from other previous backers that included Atomico, Freigeist and LGT. Lilium, a Munich-based startup that is designing and building vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft with speeds of up to 100 km/h, eventually plans to run in its own taxi fleet. // TechCrunch | Press Release

Lilium Jet side view
Source: Lilium

 

「News of the Week」Stock Market Worst Week Following Fed’s Zero Interest Rate Move

The worst week for Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 since 2008 financial crisis (Oct 2008).

Fed cut rates to near-zero the weekend before, lowering federal-funds rate to a range between 0% and 0.25%.

Dots to connect: QE, easing from central banks around the world, inflation on the way, bond issuing in low-interest-rate environment, another round of asset bubble(?) when recover, etc.