An Update On Jumia: A New Business

Continuing on the last post, I said although some earnings number are not pretty, Jumia has become a different firm in two year.

It was relying heavily on first-party sales (“resell” model like JD.com) which accounted for over 70% of its revenue in 2018Q1. That number decreased overtime to 34% in 2020Q1 (halved), partially due to the coronavirus disruption from Jumia’s own suppliers.

Another way to look at this is on the GMV level. 1st party revenue as % of GMV decreases overtime as well – what is more, the take-rate on the rest of the GMV, where marketplace revenues come from, is improving.

I do believe marketplace revenues (like Alibaba) are more valuable. Thus, Jumia’s has grown its higher-quality revenue overtime. The third-party business has shaped Jumia into a different company (with more valuable revenues).

As JumiaPay keeps growing, it will deliver value just like Alipay.

Another important matrix that is improving significantly is gross profit after fulfillment expense. This value could be used as “gross profit” or even “revenue” to better track the long-term profitability.

Fulfillment expense is not trivial and grows with the GMV as both 1st-party and 3rd-party sales uses Jumia’s delivery network.

And as mentioned in the previous post, African nations are now more willing to use mobile payments due to coronavirus. The improvement in adoption will give Jumia a boost in monetization overtime.


To sum up, three reasons that I believe Jumia is a different company:

    1. higher-quality marketplace revenues are now driving the growth
    2. gross profitability after fulfillment improves meaningfully
    3. pandemic-shaped population will adopt mobile payments & fintech solutions much more easily – trust is forced to build.

An Update On Jumia: In Coronavirus

Jumia is the probably most famous Africa startup in the past few years and went IPO last year.

I wrote about the potential e-commerce giant in a few blogs before.


On May 13, Jumia reported its 2020 Q1 earnings, which also provides a glimpse into African cities under coronavirus.

Source: Google

The market didn’t react positively after the earnings, but some opportunistic expectations had been built in before.

Although some numbers are not ideal and growth seems lackluster, I would argue in the next blog that Jumia has become a very different company than two years ago.

This post summarizes things that appear to be positive for Jumia, from its Q1 earnings and the shareholder letter in April, among other communications:

  • Partnership with Reckitt Benckiser, a global health products manufacturer selling through Jumia,  is financing free shipping nationwide (8 markets that Jumia operates) on all listed products; Jumia takes 0% commission. -> free marketing / user acquisition that ensures a good first online shopping experience; keep logistics team operate
  • Focusing on contactless delivery options & online payments. -> accelerating JumiaPay adoption when cash is still considered important; building trust, also encouraged by governments
  • Providing affordable basic foods and sanitary essentials. -> shaping perception on online shopping to everyday purchases
  • In South Africa, it launched Jumia platform with an assortment of essential products (Reckitt Benckiser and P&G) that can be delivered despite the lockdown (was selling fashions via Zando which is shut down).
  • Jumia Food pivots to grocery delivery
  • Increased demand from sellers to join the Jumia platform as offline distribution channels are largely disrupted – high-profile brands on Jumia Mall, including Coca-Cola and Nigerian Breweries in Nigeria, PepsiCo and Nivea (Beiersdorf) in Egypt.
  • Launched JumiaPay in Tunisia
  • Consumers can purchase game subscriptions or credit for in-app purchases on the JumiaPay app for popular games
  • Advertising services were available across 9 out of 11 countries, compared with 5 at the end of 2019 – in Q1 run campaigns for high-profile brands including Adidas, L’Oreal, Microsoft, Sensodyne and Mondelez
  • Volumes surged in some markets, such as Morocco and Tunisia, while limited in countries such as South Africa and Nigeria
  • The countries that have been the most severely affected by confinement measures have experienced a gradual volume recovery since mid-April, while the countries that saw a surge in volumes continued to experience robust momentum throughout April. Overall, in terms of items sold, we ended the month of April c.3% above the first week of March levels.
  • The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in partnership with Jumia Uganda, have launched an online platform – to enable small and medium enterprises to connect with consumers
    • Jumia will use its infrastructure which includes riders trained to provide safe and contactless deliveries, to provide a platform for the vendors to reach customers who are currently under lockdown.
    • Consumers will have the option of giving feedback on the level of satisfaction of both the product and the service through the Jumia Vendor App.
  • Jumia and Mastercard announced a partnership to incentivize the use of cashless payments platforms – consumers who purchase essential products using their Mastercard on the Jumia platform will receive up to a 10 per cent discount on their order

Things that are implying negative developments:

  • The early signs of the COVID-19 disruption were felt in our cross-border operations as a result of manufacturing facility shutdowns in China. Supply chain disruption in China also impacted our local sellers, many of whom source their goods from China.
  • Different forms of confinement measures have been affecting operations to varying degrees, food delivery business, brief closures of warehouse, sellers’ inability to deliver, etc.
  • Currently expect continued GMV weakness over at least the first half of 2020, with better Order and Annual Active Consumers growth, on a year-over-year basis.

 

to be continued…

「What’s News In China」

HK’s Hang Seng Index will incorporate Chinese internet giants Alibaba, Xiaomi and Meituan Dianping – companies with dual-class or equivalent structures, starting from August, with a weighting cap of 5%. The tech trio are also eligible to join the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. The Hang Seng is tracked by $20 billion of exchange-listed products globally and $8 billion of local retirement plans, the index provider said in a consultation paper in January. // FT | Hang Seng Indexes


On May 18, HeyTea 喜茶 announced the roll-out of its first artificial meat product, partnering with Starfield 星期零. The 未来肉芝士堡 is priced at ¥25. // 36kr | WeChat

Before HeyTea, its competitor Naixue’s Tea also partnered with Starfield on artificial meat burger last November. Last month, Starbucks and KFC in China launched their artificial / plant-based meat products. // Sina | 36kr


ByteDance is marching into automobile sector with plans to integrate Douyin and Toutiao into cars. The research and development (R&D) team for the Internet of Vehicles (IoV) team are former employees of smartphone maker Smartisan 锤子手机, who joined the company after ByteDance acquired Smartisan (team & patents) in early 2019. // 36kr | kr-asia


Chinese black-box doll retailer Pop Mart 泡泡玛特 has raised more than $100 million in funding from China Renaissance and Loyal Valley Capital in what is expected to be its last round before an IPO. // avcj | 36kr