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So they say central banks are buying gold

I did some research and tried to put pieces together.

1/ Central banks are buying, but top country is Poland (National Bank of Poland).

None of G7 is top buyers in 2025 till Nov.

German is a small buyer.

Source: IMF, respective central banks, World Gold Council

 

2/ The total buying from central banks surged in 2022

2022 vs 2021, more than doubled

2022 vs 2018, more than 50% surge

Year
Annual central bank net gold purchases, tonnes
2014 601.2
2015 579.6
2016 394.9
2017 378.6
2018 656.2
2019 605.4
2020 254.9
2021 450.1
2022 1080.0
2023 1050.8
2024 1089.4

Source: www.visualcapitalist.com

3/ Many gold buyers are Russia trading partners, except for Poland

Six of top seven central bank gold buyers in 2025 through Nov is a top Russia trading partner.

Poland (no)

Kazakhstan (yes)

Brazil (yes)

Azerbaijan (yes)

Turkey (yes)

China (yes)

Czech (yes)

Top Russia trading partners in 2024.

Source: oec.world


It looks possible that as Russia doesn’t want to accept or own USD, or it can’t use USD, its trading partners are buying gold as a form of payment.

 

Chatted with ChatGPT and created model for gold price

With a 5-year time frame, I tried to create a gold price model for 2028, based on 2023 gold price.

Gold_2028 (USD/oz)
– Low $4,087
– Base $6,070
– High $9,556

gold_2028_model_with_deficit_cb

Disclaimer: I am not expert on gold nor did I have spent considerable time in studying it. But I was trying to understand different drivers behind gold price. I asked ChatGPT to pick the coefficients, so there is little credibility behind these coefficients.

 

Notes of Paul Tudor Jones (PTJ) on AI bubbles

Paul Tudor Jones on the AI Bubble Debate by Bloomberg

The only way to reduce debt to GDP is to have obviously nominal growth exceed your interest rate.

– Paul Tudor Jones

Here are notes for Paul’s interview and my opinions

  • Today feels like Oct 1999, but if this is a bubble, it’s a small one. Past bubbles ran 400–600%. Nasdaq is “only” ~200% off the bottom. Blow-off possible, not inevitable. [I agree; see my previous post Is it like internet bubble? in October]
  • Key bull case: rates. If Fed funds fall toward ~2.25–2.75%, that’s powerful fuel for equities. Markets look 6–9 months ahead, not at today’s data. [Sure]
  • Difference vs 1999: companies are profitable. [I don’t agree; I believe AI model companies like OpenAI etc. are losing a lot of money; let’s see when they publish numbers for IPOs]
  • Risk isn’t traditional leverage like in margin accounts — it’s derivative leverage: options, leveraged ETFs (up 250% from 2022 bottom), and trader-driven equity flows. [Very real]
  • Jones stays a trend follower. Recently, gold & silver > Bitcoin despite massive crypto inflows. He now expects precious metals to outperform crypto into year-end. [I wouldn’t agree back then; but I would be very wrong, so far]
  • Bond vigilantes were held in back; money debasement happened in gold and bitcoin instead. [True]
  • Biggest risk: concentration everywhere — stocks, investors, and policy power. [Agree]
  • Bottom line: short-term cautious, but Paul believes markets can be substantially higher by year-end. Likely long: Nasdaq. Short: Bonds.

Xiaomi smartphone GP may drop 30% given rising memory cost

Some simple calculation:

Xiaomi smartphone GPM was 12.6% in 2024, with 192bn revenue.

Xiaomi sold 1.64 billion smartphones that year.

The GP per handset is about 147 RMB in 2024

Across different smartphone models, memory cost is different, ranging from 50-500 per handset.

But in a nutshell, it’s about 12-18% of BOM.

It’s could be about 150 memory cost per handset for Xiaomi, which is similar to GP per handset.

Then if memory cost is rising 50-100%, the entire GP per handset could be at risk.

To offset, Xiaomi may increase prices for customers.

And as a large customer for memory chips, it may not receive full mark-up immediately.

In the end, maybe 1/3 of the memory cost impact of 120 need to be absorbed by Xiaomi.

Then GP per handset could be more like 100-110 RMB.

And as the price increases, volume could be impacted, plus the RMB appreciation recently (two-thirds of Xiaomi smartphone volume is overseas).

Total impact to Xiaomi smartphone GP could be like 65-75bn, or 25-30% negative impact from 2024 level.

Sea change?

1/ FSD approval in China.

I have seen various posts on Chinese social medias that Tesla FSD is being updated in China. Not many news mentions though. This was previewed by Elon Musk back in Nov 2025 and recently in Davos.

2/ TikTok US deal finalized

3/ Trump Administration Pushes Out Key Officials Focused on China Tech Threat – WSJ

4/ Medtronic and Mindray North America broaden strategic partnership

5/ H200 China approval after US approval

6/ BYD and ExxonMobil signed a long-term strategic cooperation memorandum on 26 January

 

Edit:

Jensen Huang on Jan 29 said H200 has yet to be approved in China.

Notes on JPY strength

Coordinated intervention

Reports that the New York Fed did “rate checks” (often interpreted as a potential prelude to intervention) plus Japan officials stressing coordination with the U.S. put the market on alert.

Previous examples

In March 2011, the G7 announced concerted intervention after extreme yen volatility following Japan’s earthquake.

What was happening in 2011?

Markets anticipated Japanese insurers and investors would bring money back to Japan to pay claims and fund rebuilding.

What’s happening now and why US wants a stronger yen now?

Excess volatility and disorderly FX moves can harm economic/financial stability

Japan’s finance minister has said the U.S. Treasury secretary shared concerns about “one-sided depreciation” of the yen, which signals the U.S. doesn’t want to be seen as tolerating a move that could be framed as giving Japan an unfair export boost.

A weak yen can worsen import-cost inflation and political stress in Japan.

Some exit from Japan might cause the temporary yen weakness (e.g. China selling).

 

 

Solana note

Solana’s price was up 86% in 2024 and down 34% in 2025.

Most of the pullback happened in q4 of 2025 which was around 40%.

At the end of Q3 2025, Solana price was about $208, still up compared with 2024 year end of $189.

Two most important drivers for Solana network and price are meme coins and stable coins.

For meme coin, it seems the frenzy has cooled down in 2025, using these indexes as reference: CoinDesk Meme Index or MarketVector Meme Coin Index.

On the stable coin side, adoption (stable coin on solana) has more than doubled from $5bn at end of 2024 to $13bn in Sep 2025 according to this, but no meaningful increase in 4q2025.

Human brain vs AI model

Human brain has 86 billion neurons, which forms 100 trillion synaptic connections.

That 100 trillion is the first-order proxy of model “weights”.

Currently, SOTA AI models could have ~2 trillion parameters or model weights.

For example, OpenAI’s GPT 5.2 model is estimated to have 1-5 trillion parameters, while GPT 3 has 175 billion parameters. Meta Llama 4 Behemoth (MoE) has nearly 2 trillion parameters.

Thus AI models now are closer to human brains. Only 50x difference.

However, human brains is not just 100 trillion synaptic connections.

  • A synapse isn’t a single scalar. It has multiple properties (strength, short-term plasticity, release probability, receptor composition, timing effects, etc.). So raw physical degrees of freedom per synapse could be >1.

  • Not all synapses are independently controllable. Biology adds constraints and correlations (developmental wiring rules, local learning, neuromodulators, homeostasis). That means the effective independent DoF is likely lower than “#synapses × variables”.

  • The brain has lots of additional state beyond synapses. Neuron membrane potentials, ion channel states, neuromodulator concentrations, glial regulation, oscillations, etc. That adds dynamic DoF that don’t map cleanly to “parameters” the way a static model does.

Another thing need to keep in mind how energy-efficient a human brain is.

A typical adult brain runs on about ~20 W.

How to operate a SOTA model?

ChatGPT gives me this

for a dense FP16 2T model, 32 H200 GPUs is the “it loads and runs” baseline, while 48–64+ GPUs is where you start getting reasonable headroom + throughput, depending on your target context and requests/sec.

So about 40 kw.

That would be about 2000x energy consumption than human brain.

Of course human is not just about brain, so about 400x.


GPT 5.2 estimated parameters

Alibaba hits out in all directions

a) Delivery

Since 2025, Alibaba used massive subsidies to compete with Meituan.

b) Micro-loan facilitation

In 2025, the industry faced regulatory crackdown on high fees or high APR, while Alibaba’s Ant Group operates at lower APR segment.

c) OTA

Trip.com (previously CTrip), the leader in China OTA, is targeted by regulators recently for antitrust issues.

d) PDD

In e-commerce, the industry faced some scrutiny and PDD is being probed.