Month: July 2024

It’s tough for small countries to negotiate with big countries, like any single individual is hard to fight a big company.

To protect individual employees, union is needed.

It’s the same for small countries.

It’s different from UN, which INCLUDE big counties. It’s not like BRICS etc., as China is already a super power.

It should be small countries only. And they shall work together and organize a team to fight for their rights in negotiations.

Sure this may cost some money, but the benefit shall outweigh.

They shall need to resist the attempt to make separate deals with big countries – this will undermine the coalition and bargain power collectively.

 

Prolonged worsening US-China relationship has more indirect casualties it appears.

Recently, a women who defended Japanese nationals from being attacked in Suzhou passed away.

A 30-year girl in Shanghai suicided when facing a declining housing price (~3-4mn rmb of down payment loss) and cut in pay.

We might not feel US-China relationship in our daily life, but it’s around us.

It’s affecting every corner of the world.

Nike stock was a loser last week. Nike is under pressure with fiscal year 2025 to be down mid-single digit in revenue.

However, this is exactly what the US needs right now – weaker consumer, cooler economy.

Lower demand tempers inflation and it’s easier for Fed to see the data it wants.

When Fed gets what it needs and cuts the interest rate, others thing could look for bottoms or better terms – whether it’s commercial real estate or refinancing some low cost CBs.

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If you want to get there faster, you better hope for the opposite.

When more people see only one cut or no cut, overall economy will cool a bit. Companies and consumers would tighten their belts, which will be helpful to the Fed.

When the market is pricing in “higher for longer”, multiples come down & stocks drop. Here, the reverse wealth effect will drive down inflation.

Talk bad stuff, so you can get good result in the end.