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The previous 40x P/S sector was SaaS

Cloud and SaaS received premium valuation from 2020 to 2021.

The outperformance started in 2016 and lasted 5-6 years. Watch that outperformance here: https://cloudindex.bvp.com/

Back then, “rule of 40” is the king of valuation metrics, which means “um of revenue growth and profit margin should equal 40%+”. The higher the better of course.

While market fluctuates, you can find the P/S or revenue multiple in the past.

Here, you see that in 2016 companies at rule of 40 receives ~6-7x current year revenue multiple.

Here, you see that in 2020 companies at rule of 40 receives 17x LTM revenue, or 12.8x forward revenue.

During this 2020-21 period, it’s normal to see 30-40x P/S for hot SaaS companies. I remembered Shopify was 40x P/S.

Looks at these charts from here – the evidence of 30-40x P/S glory days.

We all know what happened next.

 

 

That multiple fell back to ~6x for the regression line in 2022, with Fed raising interest rates. See here for the chart.

 

The multiple has stabilized afterwards, from 2022 till now.

Currently, the valuation (forward revenue multiple) is ~4-5x for 2nd and 3rd quantile companies followed by BVP, including the names like Salesforce, Hubspot, Workday, Nutanix, etc.

BVP has introduced the new the Rule of X to give growth more credit btw.

I think some bubble is brewing now, with AI model companies or even chip companies.

However, investors keeps dancing, expecting that Trump will appoint new Fed Chair this year and the new chair won’t raise rates. Trump wants lower rates, not higher.

Maybe we should see another around of crazy valuation first.

And if SaaS outperformed 5-6 years (2016-2021), maybe AI-related stuff should outperform till 2027/28.

VPN and 另纸签

Interestingly, the two things give me similar feeling.

VPN is needed when people in HK use services like ChatGPT.

另纸签 is needed when Chinese people are entering Vietnam.

The usage of VPN in HK for ChatGPT started when US doesn’t want to recognize Hong Kong as special and treat it more like mainland China.

The usage of 另纸签 started when Vietnam doesn’t want to recognize the map on a Chinese passport.

Sometimes you feel the moves are a bit “childish”, but also “smart” in managing tensions.

 

Nvidia to become new android+qualcom

In the smartphone era, Google’s Android and Qualcom chips is a powerful solution for many hardware makers.

Nvidia looks to resemble that status alone in self-driving, with this announcement. The Alpamayo + Thor combo provide self-driving software + chip for cars.

More than that, it looks that Nvidia might also do that in robots.

Obviously, Tesla would be the Apple of this era.

Btw, Nvidia’s evaluation data set includes lidar data  https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/PhysicalAI-Autonomous-Vehicles-NuRec

This dataset has a total of 1727 hours of driving recorded from planned data-collection drives in 25 countries and 2500+ cities. The data captures diverse traffic, weather conditions, obstacles, and pedestrians in the environment. It consists of 310,895 clips that are each 20 seconds long. The sensor data includes multi-camera and LiDAR coverage for all clips, and radar coverage for 163,850 clips.

 

Popmart, holidays and 犒赏经济

Recently, 犒赏经济 has become a hot topic in China. The related articles try to show resilience in consumption and suggest a way to lift consumption.

While I agree with the necessity of this concept, as consumption in China needs to upgrade to “quality consumption” as some may say, I think 犒赏经济 is also trying to avoid some other key issues.

1/ key examples of 犒赏经济 are also lipstick effect.

Usually these articles argue that the rise in blind box toy sale like Popmart is a form of 犒赏经济.

However, if you think about it, Popmart toy is also like high-end brand lipsticks – people are replacing large item luxury purchases (handbags etc.) with smaller items ($20).

The desire to buy luxury products still exist during a bad economy, but people choose to buy stuff that have less impact on their financials.

One common use case of Popmart toy is to attach it to luxury handbags. Adding the “attachment” makes people feel that the handbag is “new” , thus somehow replacing the need to buy a new one.

Other examples of 犒赏经济 can also be lipstick effect.

Buying a nice dessert on the way back home? That’s a replacement for a much more expensive dinner out.

2/ 犒赏经济 tolerates other negative effects on overall consumption like stress or off-times.

Some part of the 犒赏经济 is not to celebrate in my opinion.

The mental stress is usually mentioned as a cause of rise in 犒赏经济, but is that a good thing? Are economists going to argue that in order to drive 犒赏经济, more people need to feel the stress?

Plus, these articles avoided discussions of long working hours and short holidays.

Long working hours is limiting dinner consumption and other 夜间经济.

In most companies in China, young people only get 5 days of annual leave per years. In additional, many companies will ask why you take a leave, and there is no such thing as getting paid for unused leaves. I bet many European people would say that like hundreds of years ago.

In 1936, France introduced law for 2 weeks of paid leave for all workers. This is on top of 9 days of national holiday at that time. The 2 weeks was further raised to 3 weeks in 1956, to 4 weeks in 1969, and to 5 weeks in 1982.

Wonder why concert is more popular than traveling? Because concert is usually in the city or a weekend trip that doesn’t involve taking a leave.

Let me just stop here.

Overall there are huge potentials in consumption in China I believe, and the quality consumption is the way to go. But some limiting factors need to be addressed first.

Real interest rate comparison

China, 2020-2025

  • Real interest rate is mostly in 1-2% post-2020, using 7-day repo repurchase rate.
  • Although overnight rate could be 0.3% lower, real interest rate is still in positive territory.
  • in mid-2022, real interest rate is below 0 due to short-term CPI strength when shanghai is out of lockdown.

US, post dot-com bubble

Real interest rate is below 0%, like -1%.

Fed funds rate

 

December 2001 1.75% 11 rate cuts in a single year to fight the recession.
November 2002 1.25% Further easing as the recovery remained “jobless.”
June 2003 1.00% The Bottom. The lowest rate in 45 years at that time.

CPI

 

2001
177.1
2.8%
2002
179.9
1.6%
2003
184.0
2.3%

 

US, post GFC

Real interest rate is below 0%, frequently below -1%, near -4% in Sep 2011.

Fed fund rate: 0% until Dec 2015, plus QE to keep long term rates low

CPI

 

2009
214.5
-0.4%
2010
218.1
1.6%
2011
224.9
3.2%
2012
229.6
2.1%
 2013
233.0
1.5%
 2014
236.7
1.6%
 2015
237.0
0.1%

 

Real interest rate US vs China

US

10yr treasury: 4.1%

Fed funds rate: 3.50%-3.75%

CPI (Nov): 2.7%

The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November.

Real interest rate: 1.4% long term, ~1% short term

China

10yr treasury: 1.8%

7-Day Reverse Repo Rate: 1.4%

CPI (Nov): 0.7%

But Nov MoM CPI is -0.1%.

Real interest rate: 1.1% long term, ~0.7% short term

However, China CPI was just 0.2% in Oct and mostly flat or negative yoy before Oct 2025.

Within that, 贵金属饰品 probably contributed 0.3% or more, as gold and silver prices are up significantly.

Thus, China real interest rate is probably around 1.5% or more or long term and 1.1% for short term, which would be similar to the US right now.

Potential 30% decline in new long-term debt

According to PBOC, till Nov 2025, China residents’ long-term debt only increased 1.27 trillion rmb, compared with 1.95 trillion rmb last year.

If Dec 2025 can add 0.3 trillion like last year, it would be ~1.57 trillion rmb, thus down 30% yoy for 2025 vs 2.25 trillion in 2024.

We have already seen 3-year of consecutive decline new this number.

2021: 6.0759 trillion

2022: 3.0566 trillion (-50% yoy)

2023: 2.5507 trillion (-17% yoy)

2024: 2.25 trillion (-12% yoy)

2025: 1.57 trillion (for illustration, -30%)

This is the new additional long-term debt that households are taking, mostly related to mortgages.

This could be negative number.

Existing home prices continue to decline since Apr 2025

Following the previous post on decline in new home sales, here is an update for existing home prices in tier-1 cities in China.

Seven-month of MoM price decline across existing homes in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.


Previous notes on existing home prices

Home price continues to fall in June in China

China’s home price continued to weaken MoM

Existing home price index near flattish in Feb 2025 across tier-1 cities